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Hibernians vs Floriana Prediction & Stats

Date: 20/09/2026
Time: 16:00
Hibernians
Hibernians
Vs
20%
30%
50%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Floriana
Floriana
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Hibernians are set to defend a tight home record, conceding 1.67 goals on average against stronger opposition, while scoring only 0.67. Floriana, on the road, has been prolific, netting 2.0 goals per match and conceding just 0.29 against weaker teams. The model projects a low-scoring affair, with an expected 2.2 goals and the most probable total of 2, a 28% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1, a 14.7% probability, and the model favours an away win. Home win odds sit at 20%, a draw at 30%, and an away win at 50%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.2%), Under 5.5 (97.7%), Home under 2.5 goals (95.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.9%), Away +2 handicap (93.5%), and Under 4.5 (93.2%). Hibernians have just drawn 1-1 against Zabbar St. Patrick, while Floriana remain unbeaten, also 1-1, against Hamrun Spartans.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hibernians win
19.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Floriana win
50.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L11D23L00D20W03L20W01L11D02LA·NAX14/03A·SLI10/04A·TAR14/04H·BIR18/04H·MOS24/04A·ZAB30/04A·SLI16/08A·MAR21/08H·ZAB28/08H·VAL02/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.471.241.180.851.85
vs Stronger (8)1.121.620.671.671.401.60
vs Similar (22)1.051.411.361.070.502.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlorianaFloriana

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W20W14L10W00D21W30W20W11D41WA·MAR15/04H·VAL18/04H·HAM25/04A·GZI30/04A·VAL09/05H·MAR16/05A·BIR14/08H·SLI21/08A·HAM29/08H·GZI02/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.700.801.831.001.500.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.191.001.401.200.830.67
vs Weaker (14)2.290.572.380.752.170.33
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%022%128%219%310%45%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
64.7%
Under 1.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
36.6%
Under 2.5
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
17.2%
Under 3.5
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
41.6%
No
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.8%
1-1
13.6%
0-0
12.8%
0-2
11.1%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
7.7%
0-3
5.1%
2-1
4.8%
Hibernians goals ↓
Floriana goals →
01234
013%15%11%5.1%1.8%
17.7%14%8.6%3.9%1.4%
23.5%4.8%3.3%1.5%0.5%
30.9%1.2%0.9%0.4%0.1%
40.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernians goals (down), columns = Floriana goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Hibernians is 0.96 points worse than Floriana in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 2.18).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Hibernians is 0.15 goals worse than Floriana in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.56).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Hibernians is 0.71 goals worse than Floriana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 0.82).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hibernians or Draw
49.9%
Avg Implied -
20%
30%
50%
covers Hibernians + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hibernians or Floriana
69.8%
Avg Implied -
20%
30%
50%
covers Hibernians + Floriana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Floriana
80.3%
Avg Implied -
20%
30%
50%
covers Draw + Floriana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hibernians over/under 0.5
Over
53.9%
Under
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5
Over
18.2%
Under
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5
Over
74.9%
Under
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5
Over
40.2%
Under
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 3.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Hibernians, so a minus line means Hibernians give that many goals of a start and Floriana receive them. At -1, Hibernians must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hibernians win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hibernians)
Hibernians -2
1.4%
Draw -2
4.9%
Floriana +2
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hibernians)
Hibernians -1
6.3%
Draw -1
13.5%
Floriana +1
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hibernians)
Hibernians +1
49.9%
Draw +1
25.0%
Floriana -1
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hibernians)
Hibernians +2
74.9%
Draw +2
15.6%
Floriana -2
9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

HiberniansHibernians

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D22D00D10W02L10W01L10W01LA·NAX14/03A·SLI10/04A·TAR14/04H·BIR18/04H·MOS24/04A·ZAB30/04A·SLI16/08A·MAR21/08H·ZAB28/08H·VAL02/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.670.590.410.461.00
vs Stronger (8)0.620.880.331.000.800.80
vs Similar (22)0.500.590.640.290.251.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlorianaFloriana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W00D11D10W00D01L10W10W01L00DA·MAR15/04H·VAL18/04H·HAM25/04A·GZI30/04A·VAL09/05H·MAR16/05A·BIR14/08H·SLI21/08A·HAM29/08H·GZI02/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.430.720.500.750.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.690.380.800.400.500.33
vs Weaker (14)0.790.500.620.621.000.33
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

HiberniansHibernians

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D00D01L00D10W01L10W00D01L01LA·NAX14/03A·SLI10/04A·TAR14/04H·BIR18/04H·MOS24/04A·ZAB30/04A·SLI16/08A·MAR21/08H·ZAB28/08H·VAL02/09
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.800.650.760.380.85
vs Stronger (8)0.500.750.330.670.600.80
vs Similar (22)0.550.820.710.790.250.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlorianaFloriana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W20W03L00D00D20W20W10W10W41WA·MAR15/04H·VAL18/04H·HAM25/04A·GZI30/04A·VAL09/05H·MAR16/05A·BIR14/08H·SLI21/08A·HAM29/08H·GZI02/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.371.110.500.750.17
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.500.620.600.800.330.33
vs Weaker (14)1.500.071.750.121.170.00
Clean sheet %73% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.8%-------
Under 6.599.3%-------
Home under 3.5 goals99.2%-------
Under 5.597.7%-------
Home under 2.5 goals95.6%-------
Away under 3.5 goals94.8%-------
Away +2 handicap93.7%-------
Under 4.593.2%-------
Away under 2.5 goals83.8%-------
Under 3.582.8%-------
Home under 1.5 goals81.8%-------
Draw or Away80.3%-------
Away +1 handicap80.3%-------
Away over 0.5 goals74.9%-------
Home +2 handicap74.9%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Hibernians and Floriana have a similar squad value (both €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Hibernians and Floriana have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Hibernians and Floriana have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Hibernians and Floriana have a similar defence value (both €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
HIB wins
2
Draws
5
FLO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hibernians vs Floriana · H/A from HIB
DateH/AGameScore
22/02/26AFloriana Vs HIB4-1
03/10/25HHIB Vs Floriana0-1
29/03/25AFloriana Vs HIB1-1
30/11/24AFloriana Vs HIB2-0
22/09/24AFloriana Vs HIB1-1
10/02/24HHIB Vs Floriana0-2
26/09/23AFloriana Vs HIB2-0
21/04/23AFloriana Vs HIB2-5

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/26HHIB Vs Valletta FC0-2
28/08/26HHIB Vs Zabbar St. Patrick1-1
21/08/26AMarsaxlokk Vs HIB1-0
16/08/26ASliema Wanderers Vs HIB0-2
30/04/26AZabbar St. Patrick Vs HIB3-0
24/04/26HHIB Vs Mosta2-0
18/04/26HHIB Vs Birkirkara0-0
14/04/26ATarxien Rainbows Vs HIB3-2
10/04/26ASliema Wanderers Vs HIB1-1
14/03/26ANaxxar Lions Vs HIB2-1

FlorianaFloriana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/26HFLO Vs Gzira United4-1
29/08/26AHamrun Spartans Vs FLO1-1
21/08/26HFLO Vs Sliema Wanderers2-0
14/08/26ABirzebbuga Vs FLO0-3
16/05/26HFLO Vs Marsaxlokk2-1
09/05/26AValletta FC Vs FLO0-0
30/04/26AGzira United Vs FLO0-1
25/04/26HFLO Vs Hamrun Spartans1-4
18/04/26HFLO Vs Valletta FC2-0
15/04/26AMarsaxlokk Vs FLO1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hibernians
Hibernians
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDL1.18
HomeDDWDL1.45
AwayDLLWL0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%38%19%
AVG goals2.862.663.14
Over 1.5 %80%76%86%
Over 2.5 %50%41%62%
Over 3.5 %32%24%43%
Scored1.341.411.24
Conceded1.521.241.90
BTTS56%52%62%
Clean Sheet18%28%5%
Corners---
Cards---
Floriana
Floriana
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW2.08
HomeWLWWW1.93
AwayWWDWD2.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%55%67%
AVG goals2.502.552.43
Over 1.5 %76%86%62%
Over 2.5 %48%48%48%
Over 3.5 %26%24%29%
Scored1.641.591.71
Conceded0.860.970.71
BTTS52%55%48%
Clean Sheet42%34%52%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana410
75%
2.5
102+8
3.0
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.50.5
-
2Valletta FCValletta FC49
75%
2.2
104+6
3.5
100%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.51.0
-
3MostaMosta39
100%
3.0
51+4
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.70.3
-
4MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk37
67%
2.3
42+2
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.30.7
-
5BirkirkaraBirkirkara36
67%
2.0
51+4
2.0
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.70.3
-
6Balzan FCBalzan FC34
33%
1.3
44+0
2.7
100%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.3
-
7Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick34
33%
1.3
45-1
3.0
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.31.7
-
8HiberniansHibernians44
25%
1.0
34-1
1.8
75%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2130.81.0
-
9Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers33
33%
1.0
25-3
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3220.71.7
-
10Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans31
0%
0.3
14-3
1.7
67%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1310.31.3
-
11BirzebbugaBirzebbuga30
0%
0.0
16-5
2.3
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1210.32.0
-
12Gzira UnitedGzira United40
0%
0.0
213-11
3.8
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.53.2
-
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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