The model favours an away win, with a 53% chance for Gzira United, 27% for a draw, and 21% for Hibernians to come out on top. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderately high-scoring game, but the most likely total is 2 goals, with a 26% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.8% probability. Hibernians, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, have averaged 1.18 goals scored and 1.55 conceded, while Gzira United, on the road, have averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.18 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 with a 74.6% probability and Under 3.5 with a 73.4% probability. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals on average, with the most probable total of 2. The model’s selection of an away win is the most likely outcome.
Results analysis
The upset came as Hibernians edged Gzira United 2-0, overturning the model’s favourite away win. The pre-match pick, an away victory with a 53% probability, proved wrong. The final score of 2-0 gave a home win, a result the model had not predicted. The model’s selections over 1.5 and under 3.5 both hit, with probabilities of 74.6% and 73.4% respectively, confirming the expected total of 2 goals. Hibernians, after a draw in their last match, finished the five-game run with a win, while Gzira United, coming off four consecutive losses, failed to secure the predicted away triumph.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hibernians win✓ Hit
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gzira United win✗ Miss
52.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hibernians
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.13
1.00
1.47
1.60
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.43
0.33
1.67
1.50
1.25
vs Similar (21)
1.33
1.14
1.18
1.55
1.50
0.70
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gzira United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.37
1.07
1.43
1.56
1.31
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.62
0.75
1.50
0.50
1.75
vs Similar (20)
1.30
1.35
1.00
1.56
1.55
1.18
vs Weaker (2)
4.50
0.50
3.00
0.00
6.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.6%
Under 1.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.4%
Under 2.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.6%
Under 3.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.9%
No
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
0-1
11.0%
0-2
10.1%
1-2
9.6%
0-0
8.5%
1-0
5.9%
0-3
5.6%
2-1
5.5%
Hibernians goals ↓
Gzira United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
11%
10%
5.6%
2.3%
1
5.9%
13%
9.6%
5.3%
2.2%
2
3.3%
5.5%
4.6%
2.5%
1.1%
3
1.1%
1.8%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernians goals (down), columns = Gzira United goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
1.94
Birkirkara
1.74
Sliema Wanderers
1.71
Hamrun Spartans
1.65
Hibernians
1.53
Marsaxlokk
1.47
Gzira United
1.31
Mosta
1.19
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.12
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Balzan FC
0.91
Melita
0.88
Hibernians is 0.22 points better than Gzira United in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.31).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Floriana
1.53
Sliema Wanderers
1.47
Marsaxlokk
1.47
Hamrun Spartans
1.44
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.41
Birkirkara
1.35
Hibernians
1.34
Melita
1.15
Mosta
1.09
Balzan FC
1.06
Gzira United
1.06
Naxxar Lions
0.94
Hibernians is 0.28 goals better than Gzira United in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Floriana
0.68
Hamrun Spartans
0.82
Birkirkara
0.85
Sliema Wanderers
0.94
Marsaxlokk
1.22
Hibernians
1.25
Gzira United
1.31
Balzan FC
1.56
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.56
Mosta
1.66
Naxxar Lions
1.67
Melita
1.91
Hibernians is 0.06 goals better than Gzira United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.31).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hibernians
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.43
0.47
0.47
1.00
0.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.71
0.00
0.67
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.38
0.64
0.45
0.90
0.30
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gzira United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.43
0.43
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.55
0.33
0.44
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hibernians
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.53
1.00
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
0.33
1.00
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.76
0.55
1.09
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gzira United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.83
0.64
1.00
1.00
0.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.12
0.50
1.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.80
0.67
1.11
1.00
0.55
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
Hibernians's squad is €2m more valuable than Gzira United's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
Hibernians's attack is €1m more valuable than Gzira United's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
Hibernians and Gzira United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Hibernians's defence is €1m more valuable than Gzira United's (€3m vs €1m).
Malta: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Floriana
Birkirkara
Sliema Wanderers
Hamrun Spartans
Marsaxlokk
Mosta
Zabbar St. Patrick
Naxxar Lions
Balzan FC
Melita