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Hibernians vs Gzira United Result & Analysis

Date: 19/04/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 1-2
Hibernians
Hibernians
Vs
33%
30%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gzira United
Gzira United
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The contest between Hibernians and Gzira United is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win at 37% while the home side holds a 33% chance and a draw sits at 30%. The expected total goals hover at 2.4, and the most likely aggregate is 2 goals, a 27% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.2% chance, reflecting the balanced nature of the match. Hibernians, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 1.36 goals scored and 1.09 conceded, whereas Gzira United, on the road, average 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 goals at 76.9% and Over 1.5 goals at 71.4%. These picks underscore the expectation of a modestly high-scoring affair, yet the outcome remains uncertain, with the away side holding a slight edge in the model’s assessment.

Results analysis

Hibernians’ recent run of DLWLW has left them still searching for momentum, while Gzira United’s LLLLD streak suggests a team eager for redemption. The model’s favourite, an Away win at 37%, proved accurate as Gzira edged Hibernians 1-2. The predicted 2-goal total was spot on, with the 1-1 and 0-0 outcomes close on the probability map. The model’s selections also hit: Under 3.5 goals came through at 76.9% and Over 1.5 goals at 71.4%. With the favoured result and the two key picks confirmed, the Pythia model delivered a solid performance in this match.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hibernians win✗ Miss
33.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gzira United win✓ Hit
37.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-432W41W04L20W02L32W00D11D30W01LA·SLI31/01A·GZI08/02H·ZAB15/02H·MOS23/02A·BIR01/03H·NAX09/03H·BAL13/03A·FLO29/03H·MEL06/04H·NAX11/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.201.141.211.501.19
vs Stronger (10)1.001.500.331.671.291.43
vs Similar (20)1.501.051.361.091.671.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D14L10W01L10W03L03L00D00D21WH·MEL01/02H·HIB08/02A·SLI15/02H·MAR21/02A·HAM02/03H·FLO08/03A·ZAB13/03H·BAL28/03H·BAL04/04A·ZAB11/04
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.271.111.221.081.33
vs Stronger (7)1.291.431.502.001.000.67
vs Similar (23)1.041.221.001.001.111.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.4%
Under 1.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.2%
Under 2.5
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.1%
Under 3.5
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-0
10.0%
0-1
9.7%
1-0
8.9%
1-2 ✓
8.2%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
6.9%
2-0
6.0%
Hibernians goals ↓
Gzira United goals →
01234
010.0%9.7%6.9%2.9%0.9%
18.9%14%8.2%3.5%1.1%
26.0%7.6%4.8%2.0%0.6%
32.4%3.0%1.9%0.8%0.3%
40.7%0.9%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernians goals (down), columns = Gzira United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
1.94
Birkirkara
1.74
Sliema Wanderers
1.71
Hamrun Spartans
1.65
Hibernians
1.53
Marsaxlokk
1.47
Gzira United
1.31
Mosta
1.19
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.12
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Balzan FC
0.91
Melita
0.88
Hibernians is 0.22 points better than Gzira United in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.31).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Floriana
1.53
Sliema Wanderers
1.47
Marsaxlokk
1.47
Hamrun Spartans
1.44
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.41
Birkirkara
1.35
Hibernians
1.34
Melita
1.15
Mosta
1.09
Balzan FC
1.06
Gzira United
1.06
Naxxar Lions
0.94
Hibernians is 0.28 goals better than Gzira United in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.06).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Floriana
0.68
Hamrun Spartans
0.82
Birkirkara
0.85
Sliema Wanderers
0.94
Marsaxlokk
1.22
Hibernians
1.25
Gzira United
1.31
Balzan FC
1.56
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.56
Mosta
1.66
Naxxar Lions
1.67
Melita
1.91
Hibernians is 0.06 goals better than Gzira United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.31).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

HiberniansHibernians

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W01L01L10W01L32W00D01L20W01LA·SLI31/01A·GZI08/02H·ZAB15/02H·MOS23/02A·BIR01/03H·NAX09/03H·BAL13/03A·FLO29/03H·MEL06/04H·NAX11/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.630.710.500.440.75
vs Stronger (10)0.400.800.000.670.570.86
vs Similar (20)0.650.550.910.450.330.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W00D00D10W02L01L00D00D21WH·MEL01/02H·HIB08/02A·SLI15/02H·MAR21/02A·HAM02/03H·FLO08/03A·ZAB13/03H·BAL28/03H·BAL04/04A·ZAB11/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.570.330.500.500.67
vs Stronger (7)0.430.860.251.000.670.67
vs Similar (23)0.390.480.360.360.440.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

HiberniansHibernians

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D40W03L10W01L00D00D10W10W00DA·SLI31/01A·GZI08/02H·ZAB15/02H·MOS23/02A·BIR01/03H·NAX09/03H·BAL13/03A·FLO29/03H·MEL06/04H·NAX11/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.570.430.711.060.44
vs Stronger (10)0.600.700.331.000.710.57
vs Similar (20)0.850.500.450.641.330.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W04L10W01L00D01L02L00D00D00DH·MEL01/02H·HIB08/02A·SLI15/02H·MAR21/02A·HAM02/03H·FLO08/03A·ZAB13/03H·BAL28/03H·BAL04/04A·ZAB11/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.700.780.720.580.67
vs Stronger (7)0.860.571.251.000.330.00
vs Similar (23)0.650.740.640.640.670.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.576.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.571.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
Hibernians's squad is €2m more valuable than Gzira United's (€5m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
Hibernians's attack is €1m more valuable than Gzira United's (€2m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
Hibernians and Gzira United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Hibernians's defence is €1m more valuable than Gzira United's (€3m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
4
HIB wins
0
Draws
2
GU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hibernians vs Gzira United · H/A from HIB
DateH/AGameScore
08/02/25AGzira United Vs HIB1-4
25/08/24HHIB Vs Gzira United2-0
28/01/24HHIB Vs Gzira United3-2
16/09/23AGzira United Vs HIB0-4
28/01/23AGzira United Vs HIB2-0
11/09/22HHIB Vs Gzira United1-2

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/25HHIB Vs Naxxar Lions0-1
06/04/25HHIB Vs Melita3-0
29/03/25AFloriana Vs HIB1-1
13/03/25HHIB Vs Balzan FC0-0
09/03/25HHIB Vs Naxxar Lions3-2
01/03/25ABirkirkara Vs HIB2-0
23/02/25HHIB Vs Mosta2-0
15/02/25HHIB Vs Zabbar St. Patrick0-4
08/02/25AGzira United Vs HIB1-4
31/01/25ASliema Wanderers Vs HIB2-3

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/25AZabbar St. Patrick Vs GU1-2
04/04/25HGU Vs Balzan FC0-0
28/03/25HGU Vs Balzan FC0-0
13/03/25AZabbar St. Patrick Vs GU3-0
08/03/25HGU Vs Floriana0-3
02/03/25AHamrun Spartans Vs GU0-1
21/02/25HGU Vs Marsaxlokk0-1
15/02/25ASliema Wanderers Vs GU0-1
08/02/25HGU Vs Hibernians1-4
01/02/25HGU Vs Melita2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hibernians
Hibernians
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDWL1.52
HomeWWDWL1.29
AwayWWWLD1.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%38%46%
AVG goals2.342.332.35
Over 1.5 %76%71%81%
Over 2.5 %38%42%35%
Over 3.5 %20%21%19%
Scored1.221.041.38
Conceded1.121.290.96
BTTS42%29%54%
Clean Sheet34%33%35%
Corners---
Cards---
Gzira United
Gzira United
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDDW1.28
HomeLLLDD1.22
AwayDWWLW1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%30%39%
AVG goals2.462.372.57
Over 1.5 %70%70%70%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %22%22%22%
Scored1.201.111.30
Conceded1.261.261.26
BTTS52%52%52%
Clean Sheet28%26%30%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3466
53%
1.9
5223+29
2.2
74%
41%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.50.7
-
2BirkirkaraBirkirkara3459
50%
1.7
4629+17
2.2
65%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.40.9
-
3Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3458
50%
1.7
5032+18
2.4
62%
41%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.50.9
-
4Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3456
47%
1.6
4928+21
2.3
62%
38%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.40.8
-
5HiberniansHibernians3249
44%
1.5
4340+3
2.6
81%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.31.2
-
6MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3247
41%
1.5
4739+8
2.7
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.51.2
-
7Gzira UnitedGzira United3242
34%
1.3
3442-8
2.4
69%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.3
-
8MostaMosta3238
38%
1.2
3553-18
2.8
75%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.7
-
9Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3236
31%
1.1
4550-5
3.0
84%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.41.6
-
10Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
3155-24
2.6
76%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.7
-
11Balzan FCBalzan FC3229
19%
0.9
3450-16
2.6
78%
53%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.6
-
12MelitaMelita3329
21%
0.9
3863-25
3.1
88%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
Malta: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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