Hibernians vs Gzira United Result & Analysis

The contest between Hibernians and Gzira United is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 39% for Gzira, 31% for Hibernians, and 30% for a draw, so the match is finely balanced. On average the teams will produce 2.5 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 27%. The single scoreline the model sees as most probable is 1-1, carrying a 14.1% chance. Hibernians, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.33 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. Gzira United, on the road, average 1.38 goals scored but concede 1.62 against this tier. The suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals at 76.1% and Over 1.5 goals at 72.3%. All figures are presented once and only once.

The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win at 39%, failed to materialise. Hibernians overturned expectations, securing a 5-3 home victory that extended their recent run of a draw, a loss, a win, a loss and a win. The model’s selection of an away win was wrong, while the suggested pick of Under 3.5, at 76.1%, missed, and the Over 1.5, at 72.3%, hit. The most likely scoreline of 1-1, with a 14.1% chance, proved far from reality, and the predicted total of 2.5 goals was eclipsed by the eight-goal thriller. The final result was a home win, contradicting the model’s forecast.