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Hibernians vs Gzira United Result & Analysis

Date: 06/01/2026
Time: 17:30
Final 4-1
Hibernians
Hibernians
Vs
46%
26%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gzira United
Gzira United
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Hibernians are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with a 46% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw and a 28% chance of a Gzira United win. The model’s favourite result is a home win, and the match is expected to see around 3.0 goals in total. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.2% probability, while the most likely total number of goals is 2, with a 24% chance. Hibernians, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, average 1.59 goals scored and 1.35 conceded, whereas Gzira United, on the road against a similar side, average 1.27 scored and 1.91 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.8% probability. Hibernians’ recent form shows a draw, a win and a loss in their last five games, while Gzira United have endured four straight defeats before a 1-2 loss.

Results analysis

The updated form storyline shows Hibernians coming off a draw, while Gzira United end a four-match losing streak. The model’s favourite was a Home win at 46 percent, and it proved correct as Hibernians secured a 4-1 victory. The model’s selection for Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.8 percent probability, also hit. The predicted most likely total of 2 goals (24 percent) did not materialise, but the final tally of 5 goals was well above expectation. Overall, the favoured result landed and the key selections largely came in, confirming the model’s accuracy for this match.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hibernians win✓ Hit
46.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gzira United win✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W31W02L01L01L23L22D11D10W33DH·NAX20/09A·TAR23/09A·HAM27/09H·FLO03/10A·VAL25/10H·SLI29/10H·MAR01/11H·NAX25/11H·TAR12/12H·ZAB18/12
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.601.531.421.641.91
vs Stronger (5)1.201.801.002.001.331.67
vs Similar (25)1.641.561.591.351.752.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D02L02L43W31W11D21W10W31W21WA·HAM20/09A·SLI24/09A·ZAB28/09A·MOS02/10H·TAR24/10A·VAL28/10H·NAX03/11H·MOS24/11H·NAX11/12H·TAR19/12
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.401.211.291.061.50
vs Stronger (6)0.501.000.003.000.600.60
vs Similar (24)1.291.501.311.151.271.91
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.1%
Under 2.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.6%
Under 3.5
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.0%
No
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
7.6%
2-0
7.3%
1-2
7.1%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
6.0%
0-1
5.4%
Hibernians goals ↓
Gzira United goals →
01234
06.2%5.4%4.2%1.8%0.6%
17.6%12%7.1%3.0%1.0%
27.3%9.4%6.0%2.6%0.8%
34.2%5.3%3.4%1.4%0.5%
41.8%2.2%1.4%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernians goals (down), columns = Gzira United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.71
Hibernians is 0.12 points worse than Gzira United in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.34).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
0.97
Birkirkara
0.91
Hibernians is 0.22 goals better than Gzira United in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.19).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Tarxien Rainbows
1.74
Mosta
1.76
Hibernians is 0.19 goals worse than Gzira United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.34).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

HiberniansHibernians

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W01L01L01L12L20W00D00D13LH·NAX20/09A·TAR23/09A·HAM27/09H·FLO03/10A·VAL25/10H·SLI29/10H·MAR01/11H·NAX25/11H·TAR12/12H·ZAB18/12
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.870.740.740.641.09
vs Stronger (5)0.601.200.501.500.671.00
vs Similar (25)0.720.800.760.650.621.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L01L21W20W00D21W00D10W01LA·HAM20/09A·SLI24/09A·ZAB28/09A·MOS02/10H·TAR24/10A·VAL28/10H·NAX03/11H·MOS24/11H·NAX11/12H·TAR19/12
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.670.570.640.500.69
vs Stronger (6)0.330.670.002.000.400.40
vs Similar (24)0.580.670.620.540.550.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

HiberniansHibernians

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D01L00D00D11D02L11D10W20WH·NAX20/09A·TAR23/09A·HAM27/09H·FLO03/10A·VAL25/10H·SLI29/10H·MAR01/11H·NAX25/11H·TAR12/12H·ZAB18/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.730.790.681.000.82
vs Stronger (5)0.600.600.500.500.670.67
vs Similar (25)0.920.760.820.711.120.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L01L22D11D11D00D10W21W20WA·HAM20/09A·SLI24/09A·ZAB28/09A·MOS02/10H·TAR24/10A·VAL28/10H·NAX03/11H·MOS24/11H·NAX11/12H·TAR19/12
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.730.640.640.560.81
vs Stronger (6)0.170.330.001.000.200.20
vs Similar (24)0.710.830.690.620.731.09
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
Hibernians's squad is €2m more valuable than Gzira United's (€5m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Hibernians's attack is €1m more valuable than Gzira United's (€2m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Hibernians and Gzira United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
Hibernians's defence is €1m more valuable than Gzira United's (€3m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
HIB wins
0
Draws
3
GU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hibernians vs Gzira United · H/A from HIB
DateH/AGameScore
18/08/25HHIB Vs Gzira United5-3
19/04/25HHIB Vs Gzira United1-2
08/02/25AGzira United Vs HIB1-4
25/08/24HHIB Vs Gzira United2-0
28/01/24HHIB Vs Gzira United3-2
16/09/23AGzira United Vs HIB0-4
28/01/23AGzira United Vs HIB2-0
11/09/22HHIB Vs Gzira United1-2

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/12/25HHIB Vs Zabbar St. Patrick3-3
12/12/25HHIB Vs Tarxien Rainbows1-0
25/11/25HHIB Vs Naxxar Lions1-1
01/11/25HHIB Vs Marsaxlokk2-2
29/10/25HHIB Vs Sliema Wanderers2-3
25/10/25AValletta FC Vs HIB1-0
03/10/25HHIB Vs Floriana0-1
27/09/25AHamrun Spartans Vs HIB2-0
23/09/25ATarxien Rainbows Vs HIB1-3
20/09/25HHIB Vs Naxxar Lions2-0

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/12/25HGU Vs Tarxien Rainbows2-1
11/12/25HGU Vs Naxxar Lions3-1
24/11/25HGU Vs Mosta1-0
03/11/25HGU Vs Naxxar Lions2-1
28/10/25AValletta FC Vs GU1-1
24/10/25HGU Vs Tarxien Rainbows3-1
02/10/25AMosta Vs GU3-4
28/09/25AZabbar St. Patrick Vs GU2-0
24/09/25ASliema Wanderers Vs GU2-0
20/09/25AHamrun Spartans Vs GU0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hibernians
Hibernians
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDWD1.40
HomeLDDWD1.33
AwayDDWLL1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%37%39%
AVG goals2.862.782.96
Over 1.5 %82%78%87%
Over 2.5 %48%48%48%
Over 3.5 %32%26%39%
Scored1.421.371.48
Conceded1.441.411.48
BTTS54%44%65%
Clean Sheet22%30%13%
Corners---
Cards---
Gzira United
Gzira United
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW1.36
HomeWWWWW1.52
AwayDLLWD1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%41%30%
AVG goals2.482.372.61
Over 1.5 %70%67%74%
Over 2.5 %48%52%43%
Over 3.5 %24%30%17%
Scored1.161.221.09
Conceded1.321.151.52
BTTS52%52%52%
Clean Sheet24%26%22%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3466
56%
1.9
5522+33
2.3
74%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.6
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3457
47%
1.7
4439+5
2.4
76%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3433
18%
1.0
4245-3
2.6
79%
44%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.3
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3424
12%
0.7
3359-26
2.7
76%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.7
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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