Hibernians are favoured to win, with a 54% chance of victory, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 21% chance of a Gzira United win. The match is expected to see 2.8 goals on average, and the most likely total is 2 goals, a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.1% chance. Hibernians, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, average 1.5 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. Gzira United, on the road to a similar opponent, average 1.3 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.8%), Under 6.5 (97.4%), Under 5.5 (93.1%), Home +2 handicap (91.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.3%), and Under 4.5 (84.2%).
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hibernians win
54.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gzira United win
20.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hibernians
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.47
1.24
1.18
0.85
1.85
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
1.62
0.67
1.67
1.40
1.60
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.41
1.36
1.07
0.50
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gzira United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.53
1.18
0.88
1.23
2.38
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.50
0.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.33
1.54
1.36
0.86
1.30
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.8%
Under 1.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.7%
Under 2.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.3%
Under 3.5
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.4%
No
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.2%
1-0
8.9%
0-0
6.5%
3-1
6.0%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
5.6%
Hibernians goals ↓
Gzira United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
4.8%
3.1%
1.1%
0.3%
1
8.9%
12%
5.8%
2.1%
0.6%
2
9.2%
9.9%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
5.6%
6.0%
3.2%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.6%
2.8%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernians goals (down), columns = Gzira United goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Hibernians is 0.12 points worse than Gzira United in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.34).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Hibernians is 0.22 goals better than Gzira United in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.19).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Hibernians is 0.19 goals worse than Gzira United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.34).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hibernians or Draw
79.1%
Avg Implied -
54%
25%
21%
covers Hibernians + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hibernians or Gzira United
75.1%
Avg Implied -
54%
25%
21%
covers Hibernians + Gzira United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Gzira United
45.8%
Avg Implied -
54%
25%
21%
covers Draw + Gzira United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hibernians over/under 0.5
Over
84.1%
Under
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5
Over
54.8%
Under
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5
Over
28.0%
Under
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 3.5
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 0.5
Over
65.8%
Under
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5
Over
29.1%
Under
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hibernians, so a minus line means Hibernians give that many goals of a start and Gzira United receive them. At -1, Hibernians must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hibernians win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hibernians)
Hibernians -2
14.6%
Draw -2
16.9%
Gzira United +2
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hibernians)
Hibernians -1
31.6%
Draw -1
22.6%
Gzira United +1
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hibernians)
Hibernians +1
79.1%
Draw +1
12.8%
Gzira United -1
8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hibernians)
Hibernians +2
91.9%
Draw +2
5.8%
Gzira United -2
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hibernians
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.59
0.41
0.46
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.88
0.33
1.00
0.80
0.80
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.59
0.64
0.29
0.25
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gzira United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.50
0.53
0.35
0.23
0.69
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.50
0.57
0.36
0.30
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hibernians
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.65
0.76
0.38
0.85
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.67
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.82
0.71
0.79
0.25
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gzira United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.03
0.65
0.53
1.00
1.69
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.67
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.88
1.04
0.79
0.50
1.00
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Hibernians's squad is €2m more valuable than Gzira United's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Hibernians's attack is €1m more valuable than Gzira United's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Hibernians and Gzira United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Hibernians's defence is €1m more valuable than Gzira United's (€3m vs €1m).
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Floriana
Valletta FC
Mosta
Marsaxlokk
Birkirkara
Balzan FC
Zabbar St. Patrick
Sliema Wanderers
Hamrun Spartans
Birzebbuga