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Hibernians vs Naxxar Lions Result & Analysis

Date: 09/03/2025
Time: 12:45
Final 3-2
Hibernians
Hibernians
Vs
36%
28%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Hibernians win✓ Hit
36.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions win✗ Miss
35.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W03L32W12L01L32W41W04L20W02LA·BIR14/12H·HAM21/12A·MEL04/01H·HAM19/01H·MAR26/01A·SLI31/01A·GZI08/02H·ZAB15/02H·MOS23/02A·BIR01/03
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.331.081.461.411.24
vs Stronger (10)0.901.400.331.671.141.29
vs Similar (20)1.451.301.301.401.601.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D12L04L04L01L01L03L21W52W11DA·MAR15/12A·BAL22/12A·FLO05/01A·SLI17/01A·GZI25/01A·MOS02/02H·BAL10/02H·BIR15/02A·MEL23/02H·ZAB01/03
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.700.861.791.251.62
vs Stronger (6)0.003.170.003.670.002.67
vs Similar (23)1.221.301.091.271.331.33
vs Weaker (1)4.002.00--4.002.00
Clean sheet %20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.5%
Under 1.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.2%
Under 2.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.0%
Under 3.5
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.3%
No
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.3%
1-0
7.5%
0-0
7.5%
0-1
7.5%
2-0
6.1%
0-2
6.0%
Hibernians goals ↓
Naxxar Lions goals →
01234
07.5%7.5%6.0%2.7%0.9%
17.5%13%8.3%3.8%1.3%
26.1%8.4%5.8%2.6%0.9%
32.8%3.9%2.7%1.2%0.4%
41.0%1.3%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernians goals (down), columns = Naxxar Lions goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
1.94
Birkirkara
1.74
Sliema Wanderers
1.71
Hamrun Spartans
1.65
Hibernians
1.53
Marsaxlokk
1.47
Gzira United
1.31
Mosta
1.19
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.12
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Balzan FC
0.91
Melita
0.88
Hibernians is 0.47 points better than Naxxar Lions in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.06).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Floriana
1.53
Sliema Wanderers
1.47
Marsaxlokk
1.47
Hamrun Spartans
1.44
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.41
Birkirkara
1.35
Hibernians
1.34
Melita
1.15
Mosta
1.09
Balzan FC
1.06
Gzira United
1.06
Naxxar Lions
0.94
Hibernians is 0.40 goals better than Naxxar Lions in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 0.94).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Floriana
0.68
Hamrun Spartans
0.82
Birkirkara
0.85
Sliema Wanderers
0.94
Marsaxlokk
1.22
Hibernians
1.25
Gzira United
1.31
Balzan FC
1.56
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.56
Mosta
1.66
Naxxar Lions
1.67
Melita
1.91
Hibernians is 0.42 goals better than Naxxar Lions in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.67).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

HiberniansHibernians

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L10W01L01L21W01L01L10W01LA·BIR14/12H·HAM21/12A·MEL04/01H·HAM19/01H·MAR26/01A·SLI31/01A·GZI08/02H·ZAB15/02H·MOS23/02A·BIR01/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.600.540.460.470.71
vs Stronger (10)0.400.700.000.670.570.71
vs Similar (20)0.550.550.700.400.400.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W02L01L01L01L01L11D12L10WA·MAR15/12A·BAL22/12A·FLO05/01A·SLI17/01A·GZI25/01A·MOS02/02H·BAL10/02H·BIR15/02A·MEL23/02H·ZAB01/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.700.570.640.500.75
vs Stronger (6)0.001.330.001.670.001.00
vs Similar (23)0.570.520.730.360.420.67
vs Weaker (1)3.001.00--3.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

HiberniansHibernians

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W02L22D11D00D11D40W03L10W01LA·BIR14/12H·HAM21/12A·MEL04/01H·HAM19/01H·MAR26/01A·SLI31/01A·GZI08/02H·ZAB15/02H·MOS23/02A·BIR01/03
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.730.541.000.940.53
vs Stronger (10)0.500.700.331.000.570.57
vs Similar (20)0.900.750.601.001.200.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D02L02L03L00D00D02L10W40W01LA·MAR15/12A·BAL22/12A·FLO05/01A·SLI17/01A·GZI25/01A·MOS02/02H·BAL10/02H·BIR15/02A·MEL23/02H·ZAB01/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.000.291.140.750.88
vs Stronger (6)0.001.830.002.000.001.67
vs Similar (23)0.650.780.360.910.920.67
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
Hibernians's squad is €4m more valuable than Naxxar Lions's (€5m vs €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
Hibernians's attack is €1m more valuable than Naxxar Lions's (€2m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
Hibernians and Naxxar Lions have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Hibernians's defence is €2m more valuable than Naxxar Lions's (€3m vs €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
HIB wins
1
Draws
1
NL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hibernians vs Naxxar Lions · H/A from HIB
DateH/AGameScore
17/08/24ANaxxar Lions Vs HIB1-2
02/03/24HHIB Vs Naxxar Lions0-2
28/10/23ANaxxar Lions Vs HIB0-0

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/03/25ABirkirkara Vs HIB2-0
23/02/25HHIB Vs Mosta2-0
15/02/25HHIB Vs Zabbar St. Patrick0-4
08/02/25AGzira United Vs HIB1-4
31/01/25ASliema Wanderers Vs HIB2-3
26/01/25HHIB Vs Marsaxlokk0-1
19/01/25HHIB Vs Hamrun Spartans1-2
04/01/25AMelita Vs HIB2-3
21/12/24HHIB Vs Hamrun Spartans0-3
14/12/24ABirkirkara Vs HIB0-2

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/03/25HNL Vs Zabbar St. Patrick1-1
23/02/25AMelita Vs NL2-5
15/02/25HNL Vs Birkirkara2-1
10/02/25HNL Vs Balzan FC0-3
02/02/25AMosta Vs NL1-0
25/01/25AGzira United Vs NL1-0
17/01/25ASliema Wanderers Vs NL4-0
05/01/25AFloriana Vs NL4-0
22/12/24ABalzan FC Vs NL2-1
15/12/24AMarsaxlokk Vs NL1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hibernians
Hibernians
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWL1.48
HomeLLLLW1.17
AwayWWWWL1.74
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%35%48%
AVG goals2.402.392.41
Over 1.5 %78%74%81%
Over 2.5 %38%39%37%
Over 3.5 %22%22%22%
Scored1.220.961.44
Conceded1.181.430.96
BTTS40%30%48%
Clean Sheet32%26%37%
Corners---
Cards---
Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWD1.08
HomeLLLWD1.04
AwayLLLLW1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%24%28%
AVG goals2.662.442.88
Over 1.5 %78%76%80%
Over 2.5 %50%56%44%
Over 3.5 %24%20%28%
Scored1.060.881.24
Conceded1.601.561.64
BTTS44%36%52%
Clean Sheet24%32%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3466
53%
1.9
5223+29
2.2
74%
41%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.50.7
-
2BirkirkaraBirkirkara3459
50%
1.7
4629+17
2.2
65%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.40.9
-
3Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3458
50%
1.7
5032+18
2.4
62%
41%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.50.9
-
4Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3456
47%
1.6
4928+21
2.3
62%
38%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.40.8
-
5HiberniansHibernians3249
44%
1.5
4340+3
2.6
81%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.31.2
-
6MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3247
41%
1.5
4739+8
2.7
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.51.2
-
7Gzira UnitedGzira United3242
34%
1.3
3442-8
2.4
69%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.3
-
8MostaMosta3238
38%
1.2
3553-18
2.8
75%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.7
-
9Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3236
31%
1.1
4550-5
3.0
84%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.41.6
-
10Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
3155-24
2.6
76%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.7
-
11Balzan FCBalzan FC3229
19%
0.9
3450-16
2.6
78%
53%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.6
-
12MelitaMelita3329
21%
0.9
3863-25
3.1
88%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
Malta: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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