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Hibernians vs Naxxar Lions Result & Analysis

Date: 20/09/2025
Time: 17:15
Final 2-0
Hibernians
Hibernians
Vs
46%
26%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Hibernians win✓ Hit
45.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions win✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L12L11D22D12L15L53W22D21W22DH·NAX11/04H·GZI19/04H·BAL27/04A·ZAB01/05H·SPA24/07A·SPA31/07H·GZI18/08A·ZAB24/08H·BIR13/09A·MOS17/09
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.631.501.501.641.79
vs Stronger (6)1.002.170.502.501.252.00
vs Similar (24)1.711.501.641.361.801.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L10W20W20W11D10W13L01L11D23LA·ZAB05/04A·HIB11/04H·MEL21/04A·GZI28/04A·BAL03/05A·MEL09/05H·FLO17/08H·MAR24/08A·ZAB13/09H·TAR16/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.570.831.581.061.56
vs Stronger (5)0.203.600.503.000.004.00
vs Similar (25)1.121.160.901.301.271.07
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.0%
Under 2.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.6%
Under 3.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.2%
No
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
7.8%
2-0 ✓
7.4%
1-2
7.1%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
5.9%
0-1
5.6%
Hibernians goals ↓
Naxxar Lions goals →
01234
06.5%5.6%4.3%1.8%0.6%
17.8%12%7.1%3.0%0.9%
27.4%9.4%5.9%2.5%0.8%
34.1%5.2%3.3%1.4%0.4%
41.7%2.2%1.4%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernians goals (down), columns = Naxxar Lions goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.71
Hibernians is 0.16 points better than Naxxar Lions in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.06).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
0.97
Birkirkara
0.91
Hibernians is 0.16 goals better than Naxxar Lions in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.24).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Tarxien Rainbows
1.74
Mosta
1.76
Hibernians is 0.04 goals better than Naxxar Lions in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.58).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

HiberniansHibernians

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W10W02L01L12L11D11D01L11DH·NAX11/04H·GZI19/04H·BAL27/04A·ZAB01/05H·SPA24/07A·SPA31/07H·GZI18/08A·ZAB24/08H·BIR13/09A·MOS17/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.800.810.620.501.00
vs Stronger (6)0.331.170.001.000.501.25
vs Similar (24)0.750.710.930.570.500.90
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W10W10W00D10W02L00D11D11DA·ZAB05/04A·HIB11/04H·MEL21/04A·GZI28/04A·BAL03/05A·MEL09/05H·FLO17/08H·MAR24/08A·ZAB13/09H·TAR16/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.730.500.580.500.83
vs Stronger (5)0.001.800.001.500.002.00
vs Similar (25)0.600.520.600.400.600.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

HiberniansHibernians

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D02L01L20W11D03L42W11D20W11DH·NAX11/04H·GZI19/04H·BAL27/04A·ZAB01/05H·SPA24/07A·SPA31/07H·GZI18/08A·ZAB24/08H·BIR13/09A·MOS17/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.830.690.881.140.79
vs Stronger (6)0.671.000.501.500.750.75
vs Similar (24)0.960.790.710.791.300.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D10W10W11D00D11D01L00D12LA·ZAB05/04A·HIB11/04H·MEL21/04A·GZI28/04A·BAL03/05A·MEL09/05H·FLO17/08H·MAR24/08A·ZAB13/09H·TAR16/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.830.331.000.560.72
vs Stronger (5)0.201.800.501.500.002.00
vs Similar (25)0.520.640.300.900.670.47
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
Hibernians's squad is €4m more valuable than Naxxar Lions's (€5m vs €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Hibernians's attack is €1m more valuable than Naxxar Lions's (€2m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Hibernians and Naxxar Lions have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
Hibernians's defence is €2m more valuable than Naxxar Lions's (€3m vs €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
HIB wins
1
Draws
2
NL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hibernians vs Naxxar Lions · H/A from HIB
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/25HHIB Vs Naxxar Lions0-1
09/03/25HHIB Vs Naxxar Lions3-2
17/08/24ANaxxar Lions Vs HIB1-2
02/03/24HHIB Vs Naxxar Lions0-2
28/10/23ANaxxar Lions Vs HIB0-0

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/25AMosta Vs HIB2-2
13/09/25HHIB Vs Birkirkara2-1
24/08/25AZabbar St. Patrick Vs HIB2-2
18/08/25HHIB Vs Gzira United5-3
31/07/25ASpartak Trnava Vs HIB5-1
24/07/25HHIB Vs Spartak Trnava1-2
01/05/25AZabbar St. Patrick Vs HIB2-2
27/04/25HHIB Vs Balzan FC1-1
19/04/25HHIB Vs Gzira United1-2
11/04/25HHIB Vs Naxxar Lions0-1

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/09/25HNL Vs Tarxien Rainbows2-3
13/09/25AZabbar St. Patrick Vs NL1-1
24/08/25HNL Vs Marsaxlokk0-1
17/08/25HNL Vs Floriana1-3
09/05/25AMelita Vs NL0-1
03/05/25ABalzan FC Vs NL1-1
28/04/25AGzira United Vs NL0-2
21/04/25HNL Vs Melita2-0
11/04/25AHibernians Vs NL0-1
05/04/25AZabbar St. Patrick Vs NL2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hibernians
Hibernians
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWD1.42
HomeLDLWW1.29
AwayDDLDD1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%38%38%
AVG goals2.742.712.77
Over 1.5 %84%83%85%
Over 2.5 %48%50%46%
Over 3.5 %28%21%35%
Scored1.361.251.46
Conceded1.381.461.31
BTTS52%42%62%
Clean Sheet26%25%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDL1.02
HomeWWLLL0.91
AwayWWDWD1.11
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%22%30%
AVG goals2.582.432.70
Over 1.5 %74%74%74%
Over 2.5 %44%52%37%
Over 3.5 %24%17%30%
Scored1.000.831.15
Conceded1.581.611.56
BTTS38%39%37%
Clean Sheet26%26%26%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3466
56%
1.9
5522+33
2.3
74%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.6
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3457
47%
1.7
4439+5
2.4
76%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3433
18%
1.0
4245-3
2.6
79%
44%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.3
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3424
12%
0.7
3359-26
2.7
76%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.7
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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