This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.83
1.93
1.50
1.69
2.12
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
3.50
2.00
1.50
0.00
5.50
vs Similar (24)
1.92
1.58
1.91
1.55
1.92
1.62
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.9%
Under 1.5
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.2%
Under 2.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.5%
Under 3.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.9%
No
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.1%
2-2 ✓
6.8%
2-0
5.9%
3-1
5.8%
1-0
5.1%
3-2
4.4%
HJK Helsinki goals ↓
Ilves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
3.9%
3.7%
1.9%
0.7%
1
5.1%
10%
7.1%
3.6%
1.4%
2
5.9%
9.0%
6.8%
3.5%
1.3%
3
3.8%
5.8%
4.4%
2.2%
0.9%
4
1.8%
2.8%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HJK Helsinki goals (down), columns = Ilves goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
HJK Helsinki is 0.55 points better than Ilves in terms of average points per game (1.68 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
HJK Helsinki is 0.09 goals better than Ilves in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.55).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
HJK Helsinki is 0.45 goals better than Ilves in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
HJK Helsinki is 5.8 percentage points better than Ilves in terms of average possession (55% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
HJK Helsinki
For 6.4 · Against 4.7 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.8 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.5 · Against 8.1 · Total 16.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ilves
For 5.4 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.9 · Against 10.1 · Total 18.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HJK Helsinki
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.1
11.7
1.1
1.0
1.1
17.7
16.0
19.3
vs Stronger (1)
7.0
-
7.0
4.0
-
4.0
26.0
-
26.0
vs Similar (19)
9.3
8.3
10.3
0.6
0.9
0.4
14.0
13.7
14.3
vs Weaker (30)
12.1
11.0
13.2
1.3
1.1
1.5
18.9
17.2
20.7
% over line
74%
67%
80%
10%
4%
15%
26%
11%
40%
% under line
26%
33%
20%
90%
96%
85%
74%
89%
60%
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.8
11.9
11.7
1.3
1.2
1.3
18.9
17.4
20.1
vs Stronger (4)
11.5
13.0
10.0
2.2
2.0
2.5
19.5
15.0
24.0
vs Similar (43)
12.0
11.7
12.3
1.2
1.1
1.2
18.8
17.8
19.6
vs Weaker (3)
9.0
-
9.0
1.3
0.0
2.0
20.0
-
20.0
% over line
75%
57%
89%
18%
13%
22%
38%
43%
33%
% under line
25%
43%
11%
82%
87%
78%
62%
57%
67%
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
12.2
Turku PS
11.2
FF Jaro
10.6
SJK
10.6
Ilves
10.5
Inter Turku
10.4
Mariehamn
10.4
VPS
10.3
HJK Helsinki
10.3
Lahti
10.0
AC Oulu
9.9
KuPS
9.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Turku PS
6.6
Lahti
4.8
Mariehamn
4.2
Gnistan
4.0
SJK
4.0
Ilves
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
Inter Turku
3.9
FF Jaro
3.6
VPS
3.6
KuPS
3.6
HJK Helsinki
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Turku PS
30.6
SJK
24.1
Ilves
24.0
Lahti
23.6
Inter Turku
23.5
Mariehamn
23.3
VPS
22.4
AC Oulu
22.3
KuPS
22.3
Gnistan
21.7
HJK Helsinki
20.9
FF Jaro
19.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
60.8%
Under 9.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.0%
Under 3.5
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
33.7%
Under 21.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
HJK Helsinki
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
0.88
0.69
0.86
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.67
0.43
0.86
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (15)
1.27
0.67
1.22
0.56
1.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.79
0.43
0.62
0.94
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
1.00
0.50
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.54
0.82
0.45
0.69
0.62
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
HJK Helsinki
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.70
1.44
0.75
1.00
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.73
1.29
0.86
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (15)
1.60
0.67
1.56
0.67
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.13
1.14
1.07
1.06
1.19
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (24)
1.17
1.04
1.09
1.09
1.23
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
HJK Helsinki
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
T. Pukki33%
David Ezeh33%
M. Borchers29%
A. Ring20%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster20%
Mihailo Bogićević20%
Toivo Mero20%
V. Tikkanen17%
M. Ylitolva14%
Till Cissokho0%
L. Lappalainen0%
Lucas Lingman0%
J. Kallinen0%
L. Montano0%
Pyry Mentu0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Liam Möller0%
Matej Marković0%
Martin Kirilov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Martin Kirilov40%
Mihailo Bogićević20%
Toivo Mero20%
V. Tikkanen17%
Till Cissokho0%
T. Pukki0%
A. Ring0%
L. Lappalainen0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
M. Borchers0%
J. Kallinen0%
L. Montano0%
M. Ylitolva0%
David Ezeh0%
Pyry Mentu0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Liam Möller0%
Matej Marković0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Ezeh67%
T. Pukki33%
Pyry Mentu33%
Lucas Lingman29%
Liam Möller25%
Martin Kirilov20%
Till Cissokho0%
A. Ring0%
V. Tikkanen0%
L. Lappalainen0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
M. Borchers0%
J. Kallinen0%
L. Montano0%
M. Ylitolva0%
Mihailo Bogićević0%
Toivo Mero0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Matej Marković0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
T. Pukki33%
M. Borchers14%
Till Cissokho0%
A. Ring0%
V. Tikkanen0%
L. Lappalainen0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
J. Kallinen0%
L. Montano0%
M. Ylitolva0%
Mihailo Bogićević0%
David Ezeh0%
Pyry Mentu0%
Toivo Mero0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Liam Möller0%
Matej Marković0%
Martin Kirilov0%
Ilves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
T. Hytönen43%
J. Kanga43%
R. Riski33%
J. Veteli25%
Maksim Stjopin20%
Otto Tiitinen17%
Oliver Pettersson12%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
K. Wallius0%
J. Kilo0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
K. Wallius33%
Y. Raap29%
T. Miettunen25%
Maksim Stjopin20%
R. Riski17%
J. Kanga14%
A. Popovitch12%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
T. Hytönen0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
J. Kilo0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Kilo50%
J. Kanga29%
R. Riski0%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
Maksim Stjopin0%
K. Wallius0%
T. Hytönen0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
T. Hytönen29%
Maksim Stjopin20%
J. Kanga14%
J. Kilo12%
R. Riski0%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. Krkalić0%
K. Wallius0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
HJK Helsinki's squad is €3m more valuable than Ilves's (€7m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
HJK Helsinki's attack is €1m more valuable than Ilves's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
HJK Helsinki and Ilves have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
HJK Helsinki's defence is €1m more valuable than Ilves's (€3m vs €2m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
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KuPS
Inter Turku
Gnistan
AC Oulu
VPS
Lahti
Turku PS
SJK
FF Jaro
Mariehamn