HK Kopavogur are the clear favourites, the model assigning a 74 % chance to a home win and picking that outcome as the most likely result. Their recent 3-0 victory over Throttur Reykjavik and a strong 3.0 average goals scored at home against weaker opposition underline this advantage. In contrast, Ægir have struggled away, averaging just 1.13 goals scored and conceding 3.47 against stronger teams, and they have lost five straight matches, most recently 0-7 to Afturelding. The expected total of 4.1 goals and a 23 % probability that the match will see six or more goals suggest a high-scoring affair. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 8.2 % chance. Home win probability is 74 %, draw 15 %, and away win 11 %. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 97.2 %, Home +2 handicap at 96.1 %, Home over 0.5 goals at 95.0 %, Under 7.5 at 94.2 %, Over 1.5 at 92.2 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 89.5 %, Home or Draw at 89.4 %, and Home +1 handicap also at 89.4 %.
Results analysis
HK Kopavogur’s recent win over Throttur Reykjavik extended their form and the model’s favourite, a home win with a 74 % probability, proved correct as the final score was 2-1. The match delivered the predicted 6+ total goals, with the scoreline 2-1 matching the model’s most likely outcome. The model’s selections largely hit: Away under 3.5 goals at 97.2 % confidence, Home +2 handicap at 96.1 %, Home over 0.5 goals at 95.0 %, Under 7.5 at 94.2 %, Over 1.5 at 92.2 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 89.5 %, Home or Draw at 89.4 %, and Home +1 handicap also at 89.4 %. All picks were settled, confirming the model’s accurate predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
HK Kopavogur win✓ Hit
74.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
15.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ægir win✗ Miss
10.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
HK Kopavogur
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.73
2.43
1.50
1.88
1.94
vs Stronger (2)
4.00
0.50
3.00
0.00
5.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.88
1.92
2.33
1.67
1.50
2.14
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.50
3.00
1.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ægir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ægir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
3.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
3.07
1.07
2.64
1.13
3.47
vs Stronger (29)
1.10
3.07
1.07
2.64
1.13
3.47
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (HK Kopavogur) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.2%
Under 1.5
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
77.9%
Under 2.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.9%
Under 3.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.8%
No
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1 ✓
8.2%
3-1
8.2%
2-0
7.3%
3-0
7.3%
4-1
6.1%
1-1
6.1%
4-0
5.4%
2-2
4.6%
HK Kopavogur goals ↓
Ægir goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.2%
1.3%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
1
4.3%
6.1%
3.1%
1.2%
0.3%
2
7.3%
8.2%
4.6%
1.7%
0.5%
3
7.3%
8.2%
4.6%
1.7%
0.5%
4
5.4%
6.1%
3.5%
1.3%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HK Kopavogur goals (down), columns = Ægir goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
3.00
KR Reykjavik
2.50
Valur Reykjavik
2.43
Keflavik
2.40
IA Akranes
2.20
Fylkir
2.00
Breidablik
2.00
Fram Reykjavik
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.75
IR Reykjavik
1.60
Afturelding
1.50
Stjarnan
1.40
Vestri
1.40
Grotta
1.20
Grindavik
1.20
Throttur Reykjavik
1.20
Ægir
1.10
KA Akureyri
1.00
FH hafnarfjordur
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
Njardvik
0.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.80
Leiknir R.
0.40
Völsungur
0.40
HK Kopavogur is 0.30 points worse than Ægir in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.10).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.67
Breidablik
3.20
Afturelding
3.00
Valur Reykjavik
3.00
IA Akranes
2.80
Leiknir R.
2.60
Keflavik
2.60
Stjarnan
2.40
Fram Reykjavik
2.40
Fylkir
2.29
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.00
FH hafnarfjordur
2.00
Vestri
2.00
Grindavik
1.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.75
Grotta
1.73
Ægir
1.58
IR Reykjavik
1.40
Njardvik
1.00
KA Akureyri
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
Völsungur
0.60
HK Kopavogur is 0.78 goals worse than Ægir in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 1.58).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Fylkir
0.86
IR Reykjavik
1.00
Valur Reykjavik
1.00
Breidablik
1.20
KR Reykjavik
1.33
Keflavik
1.40
Fram Reykjavik
1.40
Thor Akureyri
1.75
IA Akranes
1.80
Njardvik
1.80
Vestri
1.80
Afturelding
2.00
Stjarnan
2.00
HK Kopavogur
2.20
Throttur Reykjavik
2.20
FH hafnarfjordur
2.25
Grotta
2.40
KA Akureyri
2.40
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.60
Ægir
2.63
Grindavik
3.40
Völsungur
3.40
Leiknir R.
4.00
HK Kopavogur is 0.43 goals better than Ægir in terms of goals conceded per game (2.20 vs 2.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
HK Kopavogur or Draw✓ Hit
89.4%
Avg Implied -
74%
15%
11%
covers HK Kopavogur + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur or Ægir✓ Hit
85.0%
Avg Implied -
74%
15%
11%
covers HK Kopavogur + Ægir
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ægir✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied -
74%
15%
11%
covers Draw + Ægir
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
HK Kopavogur over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
95.0%
Under
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
79.9%
Under
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
57.4%
Under
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
35.0%
Under
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.6%
Under
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.1%
Under
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to HK Kopavogur, so a minus line means HK Kopavogur give that many goals of a start and Ægir receive them. At -1, HK Kopavogur must win by two or more to land; a one-goal HK Kopavogur win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (HK Kopavogur)Actual: Ægir
HK Kopavogur -2
35.9%
Draw -2
19.8%
Ægir +2
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (HK Kopavogur)Actual: Draw
HK Kopavogur -1
55.7%
Draw -1
18.7%
Ægir +1
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (HK Kopavogur)Actual: HK Kopavogur
HK Kopavogur +1
89.4%
Draw +1
6.7%
Ægir -1
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (HK Kopavogur)Actual: HK Kopavogur
HK Kopavogur +2
96.1%
Draw +2
2.8%
Ægir -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
HK Kopavogur
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.70
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.73
1.00
0.58
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ægir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ægir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.48
1.24
0.43
1.21
0.53
1.27
vs Stronger (29)
0.48
1.24
0.43
1.21
0.53
1.27
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
28% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (HK Kopavogur) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HK Kopavogur over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
HK Kopavogur
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.03
1.43
0.93
0.88
1.12
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.96
1.19
1.33
1.08
0.64
1.29
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ægir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ægir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.62
1.83
0.64
1.43
0.60
2.20
vs Stronger (29)
0.62
1.83
0.64
1.43
0.60
2.20
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
14% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (HK Kopavogur) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HK Kopavogur over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →