HK Kopavogur is the clear favourite to win this match, with the model predicting a home win and giving them a 68% chance of success. This is largely due to their strong home form, where they average 2 goals scored and just 0.5 conceded against weaker opponents. Leiknir R., on the other hand, have struggled on the road, averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.17 conceded against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 4.1 goals and a most likely total of 6+ goals. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 to HK Kopavogur, with a probability of 8.5%.
HK Kopavogur have a strong home record, and Leiknir R. will need to improve their away form if they are to get a result. The model's selection is the home win, with the draw at 17% and the away win at 15%.
The model also suggests two over selections: Over 1.5 with a probability of 92.2% and Over 2.5 with a probability of 77.7%. The home win percentage is 68%, the draw percentage is 17%, and the away win percentage is 15%.
Results analysis
HK Kopavogur's win extends their run, having come off a victory against Leiknir R. in their previous encounter. The final score of 2-1 was in line with the model's prediction, and the actual result was a home win, which the Pythia prediction model correctly called. The model's selection was the home win, which had a pre-match probability of 68%. The model's call was correct, as the home team's recent form note was coming off a win.
The suggested picks largely came in, with the model's selection of over 1.5 goals hitting and over 2.5 goals also hitting, with pre-match probabilities of 92.2% and 77.7% respectively.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
HK Kopavogur win✓ Hit
67.6%
Avg Implied 61.3% · @ 1.47
Edge
+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Dafabet
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Draw✗ Miss
17.3%
Avg Implied 19.7% · @ 4.59
Edge
-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.06
Dafabet
4.90
BetVictor
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
1xBet
4.70
Leiknir R. win✗ Miss
15.1%
Avg Implied 19.0% · @ 4.75
Edge
-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
5.00
1xBet
4.90
888Sport
4.80
Dafabet
4.80
William Hil
4.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
HK Kopavogur
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
1.87
2.81
1.38
2.07
2.43
vs Stronger (7)
2.57
2.00
2.00
1.00
3.33
3.33
vs Similar (22)
2.45
1.86
3.18
1.55
1.73
2.18
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Leiknir R.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leiknir R.
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.90
1.40
1.73
1.13
2.07
vs Stronger (16)
1.25
2.50
1.12
2.50
1.38
2.50
vs Similar (14)
1.29
1.21
1.71
0.86
0.86
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (HK Kopavogur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.2%
@ 1.06+5.2%
Under 1.5
7.8%
@ 7.12-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.08
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Under
Betfair
7.50
888Sport
7.50
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.80
Marathonbet
6.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
77.7%
@ 1.28+5.9%
Under 2.5
22.3%
@ 3.25-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
888Sport
3.30
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.7%
@ 1.75+5.8%
Under 3.5
41.3%
@ 1.97-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.87
SBO
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
10Bet
1.77
888Sport
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
2.00
SBO
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.3%
@ 1.39+2.9%
No
30.7%
@ 2.73-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
888Sport
1.40
Superbet
1.39
No
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.80
Superbet
2.80
1xBet
2.78
Bet365
2.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1 ✓
8.5%@ 7.95+3.1%
3-1
7.9%@ 9.34+3.3%
1-1
6.7%@ 9.39+2.1%
2-0
6.4%@ 10.24+2.2%
3-0
6.0%@ 12.07+2.4%
2-2
5.6%@ 11.13+1.7%
4-1
5.5%@ 14.41+2.5%
3-2
5.2%@ 13.32+1.9%
HK Kopavogur goals ↓
Leiknir R. goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.3%
1.6%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
1
4.0%
6.7%
4.0%
1.7%
0.6%
2
6.4%
8.5%
5.6%
2.4%
0.8%
3
6.0%
7.9%
5.2%
2.3%
0.7%
4
4.2%
5.5%
3.6%
1.6%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HK Kopavogur goals (down), columns = Leiknir R. goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Afturelding
2.22
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Njardvik
2.00
Fylkir
1.78
Völsungur
1.67
IR Reykjavik
1.62
HK Kopavogur
1.62
Grindavik
1.40
Leiknir R.
1.12
Grotta
0.89
Vestri
0.75
Ægir
0.00
HK Kopavogur is 0.50 points better than Leiknir R. in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Afturelding
3.33
HK Kopavogur
3.12
Fylkir
2.78
Throttur Reykjavik
2.75
Njardvik
2.44
Leiknir R.
1.88
IR Reykjavik
1.62
Grotta
1.56
Völsungur
1.56
Grindavik
1.50
Vestri
1.00
Ægir
0.86
HK Kopavogur is 1.25 goals better than Leiknir R. in terms of goals scored per game (3.12 vs 1.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Throttur Reykjavik
1.38
Afturelding
1.44
IR Reykjavik
1.62
Leiknir R.
1.75
Grotta
1.78
Fylkir
1.89
Njardvik
1.89
Völsungur
1.89
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Grindavik
2.20
Vestri
2.62
Ægir
4.57
HK Kopavogur is 0.25 goals worse than Leiknir R. in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
HK Kopavogur
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.70
1.38
0.44
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
0.86
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (22)
1.18
0.64
1.45
0.36
0.91
0.91
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Leiknir R.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leiknir R.
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.27
0.73
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (16)
0.50
1.12
0.38
1.12
0.62
1.12
vs Similar (14)
0.29
0.43
0.14
0.29
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (HK Kopavogur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HK Kopavogur over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
HK Kopavogur
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.17
1.44
0.94
1.14
1.43
vs Stronger (7)
1.57
1.14
1.00
0.50
2.33
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.27
1.23
1.73
1.18
0.82
1.27
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Leiknir R.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leiknir R.
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.10
1.13
1.00
0.60
1.20
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
1.38
0.75
1.38
0.75
1.38
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.79
1.57
0.57
0.43
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (HK Kopavogur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HK Kopavogur over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
92.2%
1.06
Betfair
1.08
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
77.7%
1.28
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
Betfair
1.29
+5.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
TR (19)
€1m
NJA (21)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
GRO (17)
€1m
IR (17)
€1m
VÖL (19)
€1m
ÆGI (14)
€0m
HK Kopavogur and Leiknir R. have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AFT (5)
€1m
VES (7)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
TR (5)
€0m
NJA (7)
€0m
GRO (5)
€0m
IR (6)
€0m
ÆGI (3)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
VÖL (4)
€0m
HK Kopavogur and Leiknir R. have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (6)
€0m
TR (6)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
NJA (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
VÖL (6)
€0m
ÆGI (5)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
IR (4)
€0m
GRO (3)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
HK Kopavogur and Leiknir R. have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NJA (9)
€0m
LR (9)
€0m
AFT (7)
€0m
FYL (6)
€0m
TR (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
GRO (9)
€0m
IR (7)
€0m
VÖL (9)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
ÆGI (6)
€0m
HK Kopavogur and Leiknir R. have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Afturelding
Njardvik
Throttur Reykjavik
Fylkir
Völsungur
Grindavik
IR Reykjavik
Grotta
Vestri
Ægir