PythiaFootballBETA
HNK Gorica are expected to come out on top against NK Osijek, with a 46% chance of a home win, 29% chance of a draw, and 25% chance of an away win. The most likely outcome is indeed a home win, aligning with the model's pick.
The expected number of goals in this match is 2.5, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.7% probability.
At home, HNK Gorica have scored an average of 1.1 goals and conceded 1.2, while facing stronger opponents. Away from home, NK Osijek have scored 0.5 goals and conceded 1.0, when facing weaker opponents.
The model suggests Over 21.5 fouls (82%), Under 3.5 (76.1%), and Over 1.5 (72.2%, with a 6% edge) as its selections.
Home win percentage stands at 46%, draw percentage at 29%, and away win percentage at 25%. The model's selections are Over 21.5 fouls (82%), Under 3.5 (76.1%), and Over 1.5 (72.2%, with a 6% edge).
The away team, NK Osijek, pulled off a stunning upset with a 0-2 win over the pre-match favourite, HNK Gorica, at home. This win extends NK Osijek's run of 3 consecutive victories. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect. The model's probability of a home win was 46%. The final score was 0-2, resulting in an away win. The model's suggested picks included over 21.5 fouls, which hit, and under 3.5 total goals, which also hit, both with high probabilities of 82% and 76.1% respectively. Over 1.5 goals hit with a probability of 72.2%.
HNK Gorica| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 1.33 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 0.75 | 1.42 |
| vs Stronger (20) | 0.95 | 1.40 | 1.08 | 1.42 | 0.75 | 1.38 |
| vs Similar (10) | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-4pp vs league) | |||||
NK Osijek| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 1.47 | 0.57 | 1.07 | 0.88 | 1.81 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.78 | 2.22 | 0.33 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.77 | 1.46 | 0.57 | 1.29 | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
| NK Osijek goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.6% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 11% | 14% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.9% | 9.1% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 4.3% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
HNK GoricaNK OsijekHNK Gorica| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.9 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 25.4 | 25.9 | 24.8 |
| vs Stronger (31) | 9.1 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 24.9 | 25.8 | 24.1 |
| vs Similar (19) | 8.5 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 41% | 48% | 33% | 50% | 60% | 40% | 80% | 88% | 71% |
| % under line | 59% | 52% | 67% | 50% | 40% | 60% | 20% | 12% | 29% |
NK Osijek| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 26.4 | 26.3 | 26.5 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 10.3 | 10.7 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 26.2 | 27.0 | 25.6 |
| vs Similar (23) | 9.5 | 10.6 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 26.4 | 25.2 | 27.3 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 9.8 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 6.4 | 27.0 | 27.5 | 26.4 |
| % over line | 47% | 61% | 35% | 60% | 58% | 62% | 86% | 91% | 81% |
| % under line | 53% | 39% | 65% | 40% | 42% | 38% | 14% | 9% | 19% |
HNK Gorica| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.60 | 0.78 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (20) | 0.50 | 0.65 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| vs Similar (10) | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
NK Osijek| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.27 | 0.77 | 0.07 | 0.79 | 0.44 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.33 | 1.22 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.31 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.17 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.12 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 90.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 83.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 81.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 76.1% | 1.19 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | -1.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 75.3% | 1.28 | 1.36 | 1.30 | 1.24 | 1.23 | - | +3.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 72.2% | 1.39 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.40 | +5.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 13/12/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 28/09/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 19/04/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 08/02/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 02/11/24 | A | 2-0 | |
| 18/08/24 | H | 2-2 |
HNK Gorica| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 27/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 4-0 |
NK Osijek| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 7-0 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | NK Osijek | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 3.3 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 10.7 | 67% | 3.7 | 33% | 26.7 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 49% |
| 2 |  NK Varazdin | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 9.3 | 67% | 3.0 | 33% | 25.7 | 67% | 11 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 44% |
| 3 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 13.0 | 100% | 3.5 | 50% | 24.5 | 50% | 66 | 33 | 2 | 30 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 4 |  NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 3.3 | 67% | 67% | 67% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.7 | 100% | 23.3 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 5 |  Istra 1961 | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 10.0 | 67% | 4.3 | 100% | 24.3 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 50% |
| 6 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 3.3 | 100% | 100% | 33% | 8.3 | 33% | 4.0 | 100% | 30.7 | 100% | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 58% |
| 7 |  HNK Rijeka | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 9.5 | 50% | 3.0 | 0% | 23.5 | 100% | 49 | 31 | 7 | 12 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 8 | HNK Gorica | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3.0 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 10.0 | 67% | 4.7 | 67% | 26.3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 46% |
| 9 |  NK Slaven Belupo | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 9.7 | 67% | 3.0 | 33% | 21.0 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 49% |
| 10 |  Rudes | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 10.3 | 33% | 3.3 | 33% | 25.3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 4.0 | - |