This opponent (Sibenik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.57
1.43
0.21
1.75
0.88
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (28)
1.71
0.39
1.43
0.21
2.00
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Hajduk Split) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.0%
Under 2.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.1%
Under 3.5
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.3%
No
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.7%
1-0
12.2%
1-1
11.0%
2-1
9.6%
3-0
8.1%
0-0
7.9%
3-1
6.1%
0-1
4.2%
HNK Hajduk Split goals ↓
Sibenik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.9%
4.2%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
1
12%
11%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
2
13%
9.6%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
3
8.1%
6.1%
2.3%
0.6%
0.1%
4
3.9%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HNK Hajduk Split goals (down), columns = Sibenik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
1.81
HNK Rijeka
1.81
HNK Hajduk Split
1.75
NK Varazdin
1.36
Istra 1961
1.33
NK Slaven Belupo
1.33
NK Osijek
1.17
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.08
HNK Gorica
1.03
Sibenik
0.83
HNK Hajduk Split is 0.92 points better than Sibenik in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 0.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
1.92
HNK Hajduk Split
1.36
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Osijek
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.25
NK Slaven Belupo
1.17
Istra 1961
1.08
HNK Gorica
0.81
Sibenik
0.78
NK Varazdin
0.78
HNK Hajduk Split is 0.58 goals better than Sibenik in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 0.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
HNK Rijeka
0.58
NK Varazdin
0.67
HNK Hajduk Split
0.94
Dinamo Zagreb
1.14
Istra 1961
1.17
NK Slaven Belupo
1.25
HNK Gorica
1.42
NK Osijek
1.44
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.50
Sibenik
1.67
HNK Hajduk Split is 0.72 goals better than Sibenik in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dinamo Zagreb
60%
HNK Hajduk Split
53%
NK Slaven Belupo
51%
NK Varazdin
50%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
NK Osijek
49%
Istra 1961
49%
HNK Rijeka
47%
HNK Gorica
46%
Sibenik
45%
HNK Hajduk Split is 8.0 percentage points better than Sibenik in terms of average possession (53% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
HNK Hajduk Split
For 5.0 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sibenik
For 2.8 · Against 7.0 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 14.0 · Total 24.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HNK Hajduk Split
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.4
10.6
3.9
4.1
3.7
25.5
24.3
26.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
9.0
7.0
10.4
5.3
7.0
4.1
26.8
27.4
26.4
vs Weaker (38)
9.7
8.8
10.7
3.4
3.4
3.5
25.0
23.4
26.7
% over line
49%
36%
61%
52%
56%
48%
78%
70%
87%
% under line
51%
64%
39%
48%
44%
52%
22%
30%
13%
This opponent (Sibenik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.1
9.9
1.1
1.2
1.0
22.0
26.1
19.1
vs Stronger (5)
7.8
-
7.8
1.8
-
1.8
17.6
-
17.6
vs Similar (45)
10.3
9.1
12.0
1.0
1.2
0.8
23.8
26.1
20.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
41%
43%
40%
14%
17%
12%
65%
100%
40%
% under line
59%
57%
60%
86%
83%
88%
35%
0%
60%
This opponent (HNK Hajduk Split) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
10.8
Dinamo Zagreb
9.6
NK Osijek
9.6
NK Varazdin
9.6
HNK Hajduk Split
9.4
NK Slaven Belupo
9.1
Sibenik
9.1
HNK Rijeka
9.0
Istra 1961
8.7
HNK Gorica
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dinamo Zagreb
4.9
Istra 1961
4.8
HNK Rijeka
4.7
Sibenik
4.6
NK Osijek
4.6
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
4.6
NK Slaven Belupo
4.5
HNK Hajduk Split
4.3
NK Varazdin
4.2
HNK Gorica
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Istra 1961
29.5
HNK Rijeka
26.8
NK Osijek
26.7
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
26.7
Dinamo Zagreb
26.1
NK Slaven Belupo
26.1
NK Varazdin
25.6
HNK Hajduk Split
24.6
Sibenik
23.5
HNK Gorica
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
49.3%
Under 9.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
60.8%
Under 3.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
70.6%
Under 21.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
HNK Hajduk Split
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.43
0.73
0.67
0.47
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.17
0.17
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (24)
0.71
0.50
0.77
0.69
0.64
0.27
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.33
0.64
0.07
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.21
0.64
0.07
0.93
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Hajduk Split) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HNK Hajduk Split over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Hajduk Split over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Hajduk Split over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
HNK Hajduk Split
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.30
1.00
0.27
0.67
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.17
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (24)
1.00
0.25
1.15
0.15
0.82
0.36
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.23
0.79
0.14
0.94
0.31
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.93
0.18
0.79
0.14
1.07
0.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Hajduk Split) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HNK Hajduk Split over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Hajduk Split over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Hajduk Split over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
HNK Hajduk Split
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marko Livaja47%
Aleksandar Trajkovski21%
Jan Mlakar17%
Yassine Benrahou14%
Stipe Biuk12%
Abdoulie Sanyang10%
Niko Sigur7%
Bruno Durdov7%
Anthony Kalik7%
Filip Uremović7%
Filip Krovinović6%
Ivan Rakitić6%
Ismaël Diallo4%
Rokas Pukštas3%
Nazariy Rusyn0%
Lovre Kalinić0%
Ivan Lučić0%
Emir Sahiti0%
Michele Šego0%
Zvonimir Šarlija0%
Josip Elez0%
Leon Dajaku0%
Fahd Moufi0%
Dario Melnjak0%
Toni Silić0%
Šimun Hrgović0%
Dominik Prpić0%
Roko Brajković0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Zvonimir Šarlija50%
Ismaël Diallo33%
Filip Uremović30%
Anthony Kalik20%
Toni Silić20%
Abdoulie Sanyang19%
Stipe Biuk19%
Niko Sigur19%
Roko Brajković18%
Jan Mlakar17%
Dominik Prpić17%
Ivan Rakitić15%
Marko Livaja15%
Rokas Pukštas10%
Bruno Durdov7%
Michele Šego6%
Šimun Hrgović4%
Ivan Lučić4%
Filip Krovinović3%
Yassine Benrahou0%
Nazariy Rusyn0%
Lovre Kalinić0%
Emir Sahiti0%
Josip Elez0%
Leon Dajaku0%
Aleksandar Trajkovski0%
Fahd Moufi0%
Dario Melnjak0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marko Livaja24%
Roko Brajković18%
Šimun Hrgović15%
Michele Šego12%
Leon Dajaku11%
Ivan Rakitić9%
Dominik Prpić7%
Nazariy Rusyn6%
Stipe Biuk6%
Abdoulie Sanyang5%
Ismaël Diallo4%
Niko Sigur4%
Bruno Durdov4%
Rokas Pukštas3%
Anthony Kalik3%
Filip Uremović3%
Filip Krovinović0%
Yassine Benrahou0%
Lovre Kalinić0%
Ivan Lučić0%
Emir Sahiti0%
Zvonimir Šarlija0%
Josip Elez0%
Aleksandar Trajkovski0%
Fahd Moufi0%
Dario Melnjak0%
Jan Mlakar0%
Toni Silić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Marko Livaja38%
Emir Sahiti25%
Fahd Moufi20%
Abdoulie Sanyang10%
Filip Krovinović9%
Bruno Durdov7%
Ivan Rakitić6%
Rokas Pukštas3%
Dario Melnjak3%
Yassine Benrahou0%
Nazariy Rusyn0%
Lovre Kalinić0%
Ivan Lučić0%
Anthony Kalik0%
Michele Šego0%
Zvonimir Šarlija0%
Ismaël Diallo0%
Josip Elez0%
Leon Dajaku0%
Aleksandar Trajkovski0%
Filip Uremović0%
Jan Mlakar0%
Stipe Biuk0%
Toni Silić0%
Šimun Hrgović0%
Dominik Prpić0%
Roko Brajković0%
Niko Sigur0%
Sibenik
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ivan Santini19%
Lovre Kulušić15%
Ivan Laća12%
Jakov Anton Vasilj12%
Šime Gržan8%
Morrison Agyemang6%
Josip Majić5%
Ante Kavelj4%
Leonard Žuta4%
Stefan Perić3%
Ivan Božić3%
Roberto Punčec0%
Ivan Delić0%
Ivan Filipović0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Ivan Roca0%
Josip Gačić0%
Toni Kolega0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Zoran Nižić0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Iker Pozo0%
Bruno Zdunić0%
Elvir Duraković0%
Ognjen Bakić0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Marin Prekodravac0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Josip Gačić60%
Iker Pozo37%
Ivan Santini35%
Zoran Nižić25%
Josip Majić23%
Stefan Perić21%
Ivan Božić20%
Marin Prekodravac19%
Lovro Cvek19%
Ognjen Bakić19%
Morrison Agyemang16%
Roberto Punčec16%
Antonio Đaković15%
Leonard Žuta15%
Ivan Filipović14%
Ivan Roca14%
Jakov Anton Vasilj12%
Šime Gržan12%
Ante Kavelj9%
Bruno Zdunić8%
Elvir Duraković6%
Toni Kolega4%
Lovre Kulušić4%
Ivan Delić0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Ivan Laća0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivan Laća12%
Josip Majić9%
Ivan Božić7%
Elvir Duraković6%
Marin Prekodravac5%
Toni Kolega4%
Šime Gržan4%
Leonard Žuta4%
Ivan Santini3%
Morrison Agyemang3%
Stefan Perić0%
Roberto Punčec0%
Ivan Delić0%
Ivan Filipović0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Ivan Roca0%
Josip Gačić0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Zoran Nižić0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Iker Pozo0%
Jakov Anton Vasilj0%
Bruno Zdunić0%
Ognjen Bakić0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Lovre Kulušić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ivan Santini26%
Josip Majić9%
Ivan Božić7%
Ivan Roca5%
Ivan Laća4%
Šime Gržan4%
Lovre Kulušić4%
Stefan Perić0%
Roberto Punčec0%
Ivan Delić0%
Ivan Filipović0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Josip Gačić0%
Toni Kolega0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Leonard Žuta0%
Zoran Nižić0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Iker Pozo0%
Jakov Anton Vasilj0%
Bruno Zdunić0%
Elvir Duraković0%
Ognjen Bakić0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Marin Prekodravac0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Morrison Agyemang0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Croatia: HNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →
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Dinamo Zagreb
HNK Rijeka
NK Varazdin
NK Slaven Belupo
Istra 1961
NK Osijek
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HNK Gorica