This opponent (Istra 1961) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Istra 1961
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.03
0.93
0.50
1.06
1.50
vs Stronger (10)
1.10
1.20
0.80
1.00
1.40
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.95
1.00
0.22
0.91
1.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.9%
Under 2.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.0%
Under 3.5
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.3%
No
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
9.3%
0-0
8.4%
0-1
6.2%
1-2
6.0%
3-1
5.1%
HNK Rijeka goals ↓
Istra 1961 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
6.2%
3.8%
1.3%
0.3%
1
10%
13%
6.0%
2.1%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.5%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
3
5.0%
5.1%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.0%
2.1%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HNK Rijeka goals (down), columns = Istra 1961 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.28
HNK Rijeka
2.06
HNK Hajduk Split
1.89
NK Osijek
1.58
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.42
NK Varazdin
1.17
HNK Gorica
1.14
Istra 1961
1.14
NK Slaven Belupo
0.92
Rudes
0.25
HNK Rijeka is 0.92 points better than Istra 1961 in terms of average points per game (2.06 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
HNK Rijeka
1.92
Dinamo Zagreb
1.86
NK Osijek
1.72
HNK Hajduk Split
1.50
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.44
NK Slaven Belupo
1.19
NK Varazdin
1.08
Istra 1961
1.00
HNK Gorica
0.97
Rudes
0.61
HNK Rijeka is 0.92 goals better than Istra 1961 in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
HNK Hajduk Split
0.72
Dinamo Zagreb
0.83
HNK Rijeka
0.83
NK Osijek
1.19
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.25
NK Varazdin
1.31
HNK Gorica
1.39
Istra 1961
1.50
NK Slaven Belupo
1.92
Rudes
2.36
HNK Rijeka is 0.67 goals better than Istra 1961 in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dinamo Zagreb
61%
HNK Hajduk Split
54%
NK Osijek
53%
HNK Rijeka
53%
NK Varazdin
49%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
49%
Istra 1961
48%
Rudes
45%
NK Slaven Belupo
45%
HNK Gorica
43%
HNK Rijeka is 5.0 percentage points better than Istra 1961 in terms of average possession (53% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
HNK Rijeka
For 7.1 · Against 2.8 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 12.4 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Istra 1961
For 3.1 · Against 6.0 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 14.2 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HNK Rijeka
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (42)
8.8
9.3
8.2
5.0
4.9
5.2
25.7
24.1
27.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
8.7
9.0
8.5
4.3
3.9
4.8
24.7
22.7
26.4
vs Weaker (27)
8.8
9.4
8.1
5.4
5.4
5.5
26.3
24.6
28.2
% over line
37%
35%
38%
69%
62%
76%
74%
65%
84%
% under line
63%
65%
62%
31%
38%
24%
26%
35%
16%
This opponent (Istra 1961) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Istra 1961
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (38)
8.1
7.5
8.7
4.9
4.8
5.0
25.6
26.4
24.7
vs Stronger (13)
7.7
6.9
8.7
4.8
4.3
5.5
25.7
27.3
23.8
vs Similar (25)
8.3
7.8
8.7
4.9
5.1
4.8
25.5
25.9
25.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
29%
21%
37%
71%
79%
63%
89%
89%
89%
% under line
71%
79%
63%
29%
21%
37%
11%
11%
11%
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rudes
11.7
NK Varazdin
9.3
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
9.2
HNK Rijeka
8.8
HNK Gorica
8.6
NK Osijek
8.5
NK Slaven Belupo
8.5
HNK Hajduk Split
8.4
Dinamo Zagreb
8.2
Istra 1961
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
HNK Gorica
5.3
HNK Rijeka
5.3
Istra 1961
4.9
HNK Hajduk Split
4.8
NK Osijek
4.7
NK Slaven Belupo
4.5
NK Varazdin
4.4
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
4.4
Dinamo Zagreb
3.6
Rudes
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
HNK Rijeka
25.7
Istra 1961
25.6
NK Varazdin
25.1
NK Osijek
24.9
HNK Gorica
24.5
NK Slaven Belupo
24.1
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
24.1
HNK Hajduk Split
23.9
Rudes
21.7
Dinamo Zagreb
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.1%
Under 9.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
61.0%
Under 3.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
66.5%
Under 21.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
HNK Rijeka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.33
0.60
0.47
0.53
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.60
0.40
1.00
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (20)
0.65
0.20
0.70
0.20
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Istra 1961) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Istra 1961
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.37
0.29
0.14
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.50
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.60
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.30
0.33
0.00
0.45
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HNK Rijeka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istra 1961 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istra 1961 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istra 1961 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
HNK Rijeka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.67
1.33
0.67
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
1.00
0.80
1.20
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (20)
1.30
0.50
1.60
0.40
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Istra 1961) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Istra 1961
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.64
0.36
0.56
0.94
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
0.70
0.60
0.60
0.80
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.65
0.67
0.22
0.45
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HNK Rijeka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istra 1961 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istra 1961 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istra 1961 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
HNK Rijeka
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Niko Janković24%
Marco Pašalić22%
Mirko Marić20%
Näis Djouahra20%
Jorge Obregón19%
Marko Pjaca19%
Bruno Goda14%
Niko Galešić14%
Lindon Selahi12%
Franjo Ivanović12%
Veldin Hodža9%
Alen Grgić9%
Toni Fruk9%
Matej Mitrović7%
Bruno Bogojević7%
Emmanuel Banda5%
Ivan Smolčić3%
Emir Dilaver0%
Momo Yansane0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Adrian Liber0%
Stjepan Radeljić0%
Marijan Čabraja0%
Nediljko Labrović0%
Andrija Vukčević0%
Dejan Petrović0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Silvio Ilinković0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ivan Lepinjica67%
Andrija Vukčević33%
Ivan Smolčić31%
Lindon Selahi25%
Stjepan Radeljić23%
Marijan Čabraja22%
Näis Djouahra20%
Veldin Hodža18%
Danilo Veiga18%
Bruno Goda18%
Emir Dilaver18%
Toni Fruk17%
Niko Janković15%
Niko Galešić14%
Emmanuel Banda14%
Bruno Bogojević13%
Jorge Obregón12%
Marco Pašalić12%
Franjo Ivanović9%
Nediljko Labrović8%
Marko Pjaca7%
Matej Mitrović7%
Dejan Petrović5%
Alen Grgić4%
Momo Yansane0%
Mirko Marić0%
Adrian Liber0%
Silvio Ilinković0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Toni Fruk37%
Ivan Lepinjica33%
Näis Djouahra20%
Mirko Marić13%
Niko Janković12%
Momo Yansane11%
Marijan Čabraja11%
Marko Pjaca11%
Matej Mitrović11%
Ivan Smolčić6%
Marco Pašalić6%
Veldin Hodža6%
Dejan Petrović5%
Emmanuel Banda5%
Alen Grgić4%
Bruno Goda4%
Niko Galešić3%
Lindon Selahi3%
Franjo Ivanović3%
Nediljko Labrović3%
Emir Dilaver0%
Jorge Obregón0%
Adrian Liber0%
Stjepan Radeljić0%
Bruno Bogojević0%
Andrija Vukčević0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Silvio Ilinković0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Franjo Ivanović31%
Marco Pašalić31%
Niko Janković27%
Marko Pjaca19%
Mirko Marić13%
Toni Fruk11%
Niko Galešić10%
Emmanuel Banda5%
Alen Grgić4%
Bruno Goda4%
Ivan Smolčić3%
Veldin Hodža3%
Matej Mitrović0%
Emir Dilaver0%
Momo Yansane0%
Jorge Obregón0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Adrian Liber0%
Stjepan Radeljić0%
Marijan Čabraja0%
Bruno Bogojević0%
Nediljko Labrović0%
Andrija Vukčević0%
Näis Djouahra0%
Lindon Selahi0%
Dejan Petrović0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Silvio Ilinković0%
Istra 1961
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ante Erceg29%
Hamza Jaganjac20%
Matej Vuk18%
Salim Figo Lawal17%
Elias Filet15%
Emmanuel Ekong14%
Mateo Lisica12%
Frano Mlinar11%
Sebastián Nebyla10%
Mario Čuić7%
Darwin Matheus6%
Antonio Maurić5%
Moris Valinčić4%
Dario Marešić3%
Ante Majstorović3%
Luka Hujber0%
Lovro Majkić0%
Terrence Douglas0%
Mladen Devetak0%
Eric Björkander0%
Zoran Josipović0%
Slavko Blagojević0%
Advan Kadušić0%
Ville Koski0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Oleksandr Petrusenko0%
Iurie Iovu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ante Erceg48%
Slavko Blagojević33%
Dario Marešić32%
Advan Kadušić32%
Oleksandr Petrusenko28%
Zoran Josipović25%
Luka Hujber22%
Sebastián Nebyla20%
Hamza Jaganjac20%
Iurie Iovu18%
Ivan Ćalušić18%
Moris Valinčić17%
Mladen Devetak17%
Terrence Douglas15%
Mario Čuić13%
Ante Majstorović12%
Matej Vuk11%
Frano Mlinar11%
Emmanuel Ekong10%
Salim Figo Lawal8%
Darwin Matheus6%
Lovro Majkić6%
Elias Filet5%
Antonio Maurić5%
Eric Björkander0%
Ville Koski0%
Mateo Lisica0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Darwin Matheus12%
Ante Erceg10%
Emmanuel Ekong10%
Moris Valinčić9%
Ville Koski8%
Slavko Blagojević7%
Matej Vuk7%
Oleksandr Petrusenko7%
Mladen Devetak7%
Frano Mlinar5%
Elias Filet5%
Antonio Maurić5%
Luka Hujber4%
Advan Kadušić4%
Mateo Lisica4%
Ante Majstorović3%
Dario Marešić0%
Lovro Majkić0%
Mario Čuić0%
Terrence Douglas0%
Eric Björkander0%
Zoran Josipović0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Sebastián Nebyla0%
Iurie Iovu0%
Hamza Jaganjac0%
Salim Figo Lawal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ante Erceg24%
Elias Filet15%
Matej Vuk14%
Zoran Josipović12%
Emmanuel Ekong10%
Salim Figo Lawal8%
Mario Čuić7%
Darwin Matheus6%
Moris Valinčić4%
Slavko Blagojević4%
Dario Marešić0%
Luka Hujber0%
Ante Majstorović0%
Frano Mlinar0%
Lovro Majkić0%
Terrence Douglas0%
Mladen Devetak0%
Eric Björkander0%
Advan Kadušić0%
Ville Koski0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Sebastián Nebyla0%
Oleksandr Petrusenko0%
Mateo Lisica0%
Iurie Iovu0%
Hamza Jaganjac0%
Antonio Maurić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (34)
€66m
HR (32)
€34m
HHS (29)
€34m
NO (33)
€15m
NV (27)
€11m
I1 (23)
€11m
NLZ (34)
€10m
HG (27)
€9m
NSB (31)
€8m
RUD (27)
€5m
HNK Rijeka's squad is €23m more valuable than Istra 1961's (€34m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (15)
€33m
HR (15)
€21m
HHS (10)
€15m
NO (16)
€9m
NV (9)
€6m
I1 (10)
€4m
HG (10)
€4m
NSB (10)
€3m
NLZ (8)
€3m
RUD (13)
€3m
HNK Rijeka's attack is €17m more valuable than Istra 1961's (€21m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HHS (6)
€8m
HR (3)
€5m
NLZ (8)
€3m
I1 (4)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
HG (6)
€2m
NSB (6)
€2m
NO (4)
€1m
NV (4)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
HNK Rijeka's midfield is €3m more valuable than Istra 1961's (€5m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (17)
€30m
HHS (13)
€11m
HR (14)
€8m
NV (14)
€5m
I1 (9)
€5m
NO (13)
€4m
NLZ (18)
€4m
NSB (15)
€3m
HG (11)
€3m
RUD (10)
€1m
HNK Rijeka's defence is €3m more valuable than Istra 1961's (€8m vs €5m).
Croatia: HNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →