HNK Rijeka is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 62% probability of a home win. The model's prediction is a home win, and this is likely due to Istra 1961's struggles on the road against stronger opponents, conceding an average of 2 goals per match. At home, HNK Rijeka has been impressive, scoring 1.44 goals per match and conceding just 0.89.
The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-0, with a probability of 12.6%. Istra 1961 has struggled to score away from home, averaging 1.6 goals per match against stronger opponents, while HNK Rijeka has been solid at home, conceding just 0.89 goals per match.
The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls (75.8%), Over 1.5 (74.3%), and Under 3.5 (73.6%). The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 62%, 24%, and 14%, respectively.
Results analysis
The match saw HNK Rijeka extend their recent win streak with a 3-2 triumph over Istra 1961, confirming the modelās favourite of a home win at 61 %. The modelās call was correct. The final score matched the expected 3-2 outcome, a home victory that echoed the teamās strong home form, scoring 1.44 goals per game while conceding only 0.89. Every suggested pick proved accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.6 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.2 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2 %, Under 6.5 at 98.6 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.6 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.3 %, Under 5.5 at 95.9 %, and Away under 2.5 goals at 95.8 %. All selections came in, underscoring the modelās reliability.
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šÆ 1. Model Analysis
HNK Rijeka winā Hit
61.4%
Avg Implied 63.7% · @ 1.44
Edge
-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Dafabet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Drawā Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied 21.4% · @ 4.29
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Pinnacle
4.46
888Sport
4.40
Betfair
4.40
Istra 1961 winā Miss
14.8%
Avg Implied 14.9% · @ 6.16
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
7.00
10Bet
6.80
Unibet
6.50
Dafabet
6.20
Betano
6.20
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
HNK Rijeka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.90
1.43
0.79
0.81
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.09
0.80
1.00
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (18)
1.39
0.83
1.78
0.67
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Istra 1961) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Istra 1961
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.47
1.12
1.50
1.36
1.43
vs Stronger (10)
1.00
1.80
0.67
1.83
1.50
1.75
vs Similar (20)
1.35
1.30
1.40
1.30
1.30
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.6%
@ 1.19-0.9%
Under 1.5
23.4%
@ 4.11+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.25
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
BetVictor
4.20
1xBet
4.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.2%
@ 1.67-4.7%
Under 2.5
48.8%
@ 2.12+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.76
Bet365
1.70
888Sport
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
Under
Betano
2.18
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
10Bet
2.15
888Sport
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.1%
@ 2.68-5.5%
Under 3.5
70.9%
@ 1.42+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.99
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.75
888Sport
2.70
10Bet
2.62
Under
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.43
BetVictor
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.9%
@ 1.80-2.2%
No
51.1%
@ 1.89+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Unibet
1.82
888Sport
1.80
No
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.94
BetVictor
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
William Hil
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.8%@ 6.60+5.1%
1-0
11.4%@ 6.70+4.9%
1-1
11.3%@ 7.61+5.6%
2-1
9.8%@ 7.08+3.6%
0-0
7.6%@ 11.75+3.9%
3-0
7.4%@ 9.26+2.7%
3-1
6.2%@ 10.12+1.8%
0-1
4.4%@ 15.37+1.6%
HNK Rijeka goals ↓
Istra 1961 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
4.4%
2.3%
0.6%
0.1%
1
11%
11%
4.3%
1.2%
0.2%
2
12%
9.8%
4.1%
1.1%
0.2%
3
7.4%
6.2%
2.6%
0.7%
0.1%
4
3.5%
2.9%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HNK Rijeka goals (down), columns = Istra 1961 goals (across).
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šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.39
HNK Hajduk Split
1.89
NK Varazdin
1.50
HNK Rijeka
1.47
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.22
Istra 1961
1.19
NK Slaven Belupo
1.14
HNK Gorica
1.14
Rudes
1.11
NK Osijek
0.97
HNK Rijeka is 0.28 points better than Istra 1961 in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.19).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.58
HNK Hajduk Split
1.69
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Varazdin
1.31
NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.11
HNK Gorica
1.11
Istra 1961
1.08
Rudes
1.08
NK Osijek
0.75
HNK Rijeka is 0.28 goals better than Istra 1961 in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.08).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Zagreb
0.78
HNK Hajduk Split
1.00
HNK Rijeka
1.00
NK Varazdin
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.33
NK Osijek
1.36
Istra 1961
1.39
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.44
Rudes
1.65
NK Slaven Belupo
1.69
HNK Rijeka is 0.39 goals better than Istra 1961 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.39).
ā±ļø Possession
Avg possession %
HNK Hajduk Split
58%
Dinamo Zagreb
58%
HNK Rijeka
52%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
Istra 1961
50%
NK Osijek
49%
NK Slaven Belupo
49%
HNK Gorica
46%
NK Varazdin
44%
HNK Rijeka is 2.8 percentage points better than Istra 1961 in terms of average possession (52% vs 50%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
HNK Rijeka or Drawā Hit
85.0%
Avg Implied 85.0% · @ 1.09
Edge
-0.0%
61%
24%
15%
covers HNK Rijeka + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
HNK Rijeka or Istra 1961ā Hit
74.5%
Avg Implied 79.5% · @ 1.17
Edge
-5.0%
61%
24%
15%
covers HNK Rijeka + Istra 1961
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
888Sport
1.18
Draw or Istra 1961ā Miss
40.5%
Avg Implied 35.5% · @ 2.61
Edge
+5.0%
61%
24%
15%
covers Draw + Istra 1961
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
2.90
10Bet
2.80
Betano
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
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š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
HNK Rijeka over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.3%
@ 1.09-3.1%
Under
17.7%
@ 6.38+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.09
Under
888Sport
7.00
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.60
10Bet
6.50
BetVictor
6.00
HNK Rijeka over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
51.6%
@ 1.52-9.5%
Under
48.4%
@ 2.39+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.61
Marathonbet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
BetVictor
1.53
Under
888Sport
2.45
10Bet
2.45
Unibet
2.40
Betano
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
HNK Rijeka over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
25.1%
@ 2.63-10.2%
Under
74.9%
@ 1.43+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.94
Betfair
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
1xBet
2.66
Marathonbet
2.66
Under
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.45
888Sport
1.44
Bet365
1.44
HNK Rijeka over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.8%
@ 5.07-8.5%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.14+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.10
888Sport
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Istra 1961 over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
53.3%
@ 1.62-3.8%
Under
46.7%
@ 2.16+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.67
888Sport
1.67
Unibet
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Under
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.22
Superbet
2.20
BetVictor
2.20
Istra 1961 over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
17.7%
@ 4.08-5.1%
Under
82.3%
@ 1.21+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.50
888Sport
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Pinnacle
4.26
BetVictor
4.00
Under
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Istra 1961 over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 11.70-3.9%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.03+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
888Sport
15.00
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Istra 1961 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 42.00-99.2%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Superbet
33.00
Under
No market prices yet.
āļø 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to HNK Rijeka, so a minus line means HNK Rijeka give that many goals of a start and Istra 1961 receive them. At -1, HNK Rijeka must win by two or more to land; a one-goal HNK Rijeka win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (HNK Rijeka)Actual: Istra 1961
HNK Rijeka -2
15.7%
@ 3.88-7.1%
Draw -2
18.8%
@ 4.10-2.7%
Istra 1961 +2
65.5%
@ 1.59+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.80
Draw
Marathonbet
4.45
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Superbet
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Away
10Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Handicap -1 (HNK Rijeka)Actual: Draw
HNK Rijeka -1
34.5%
@ 2.15-6.5%
Draw -1
25.0%
@ 3.47-0.4%
Istra 1961 +1
40.5%
@ 2.62+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.29
Superbet
2.25
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.20
10Bet
2.10
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Away
10Bet
2.80
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Unibet
2.60
Superbet
2.55
Handicap +1 (HNK Rijeka)Actual: HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka +1
85.0%
@ 1.11+2.4%
Draw +1
10.4%
@ 8.10-0.9%
Istra 1961 -1
4.6%
@ 15.00-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Superbet
7.20
Away
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
13.00
Handicap +2 (HNK Rijeka)Actual: HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka +2
95.4%
@ 1.02+2.2%
Draw +2
3.6%
@ 21.00-0.9%
Istra 1961 -2
1.0%
@ 41.00-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.02
Draw
Bet365
21.00
Away
Bet365
41.00
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
HNK Rijeka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.43
0.36
0.43
0.31
0.44
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.09
0.55
0.00
0.60
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
0.50
0.39
0.56
0.33
0.44
0.44
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Istra 1961) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Istra 1961
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.69
0.94
0.79
0.79
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
0.80
0.50
1.00
1.25
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.90
0.80
0.90
0.60
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.9%
@ 1.30-1.5%
Under 0.5
30.1%
@ 3.25+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.32
Superbet
3.30
10Bet
3.30
1xBet
3.28
Marathonbet
3.28
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
35.3%
@ 2.43-2.9%
Under 1.5
64.7%
@ 1.50+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.65
Betfair
2.50
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.50
William Hil
2.45
Under
10Bet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.2%
@ 5.62-5.3%
Under 2.5
88.8%
@ 1.11+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.40
1xBet
5.40
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.11
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HNK Rijeka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
52.4%
@ 1.53-7.9%
Under
47.6%
@ 2.33+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
Superbet
1.53
1xBet
1.53
10Bet
1.50
Under
10Bet
2.40
Unibet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.35
Superbet
2.32
1xBet
2.31
HNK Rijeka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
16.4%
@ 3.62-9.2%
Under
83.6%
@ 1.24+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.72
Marathonbet
3.72
Betano
3.70
Superbet
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Under
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
HNK Rijeka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 8.93-6.7%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.03+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.60
Superbet
9.10
Betano
8.50
10Bet
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Istra 1961 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
33.0%
@ 2.81+0.1%
Under
67.0%
@ 1.38-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.06
10Bet
2.85
Unibet
2.80
Superbet
2.77
Betano
2.77
Under
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.39
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.37
Istra 1961 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 10.40-2.1%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.03+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.50
Marathonbet
11.50
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Istra 1961 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 45.00-99.2%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
HNK Rijeka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
1.07
0.36
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.55
0.80
0.40
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (18)
0.89
0.44
1.22
0.33
0.56
0.56
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Istra 1961) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Istra 1961
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.44
0.56
0.57
0.64
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
1.00
0.17
0.83
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.40
0.60
0.40
0.70
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.3%
@ 1.18-2.2%
Under 0.5
23.7%
@ 4.31+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.15
Under
Betano
4.55
Marathonbet
4.35
1xBet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
45.8%
@ 1.89-3.3%
Under 1.5
54.2%
@ 1.82+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.95
Bet365
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Superbet
1.90
Under
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
19.5%
@ 3.77-5.1%
Under 2.5
80.5%
@ 1.23+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Superbet
3.75
1xBet
3.68
Marathonbet
3.68
Under
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HNK Rijeka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
63.6%
@ 1.38-3.8%
Under
36.4%
@ 2.85+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Under
Betano
2.95
1xBet
2.80
Superbet
2.80
HNK Rijeka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
23.8%
@ 2.75-9.9%
Under
76.2%
@ 1.40+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.80
1xBet
2.75
Betano
2.65
Under
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
HNK Rijeka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 6.53-7.2%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.08+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Superbet
6.70
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Istra 1961 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
41.0%
@ 2.30+0.7%
Under
59.0%
@ 1.55-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.36
Superbet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.31
Betano
2.22
Under
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Istra 1961 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
9.4%
@ 7.90-2.3%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.05+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.60
1xBet
8.60
Superbet
7.70
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Istra 1961 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 21.25-2.2%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
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š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+4.1%
ā Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2%
ā Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
+6.7%
ā Hit
Under 5.5
95.9%
1.04
Betano
1.07
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
+5.9%
ā Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
+3.9%
ā Hit
Home +2 handicap
95.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.2%
ā Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+2.1%
ā Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.0%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-
-
+7.2%
ā Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.6%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
+2.3%
ā Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
90.2%
1.14
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+8.5%
ā Hit
Under 4.5
89.2%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Pinnacle
1.14
+8.2%
ā Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.8%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.11
+5.3%
ā Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Home or Draw
85.0%
1.09
Betano
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
-0.0%
ā Hit
Home +1 handicap
85.0%
1.11
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
+2.4%
ā Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.6%
1.24
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
+9.2%
ā Miss
Over 2.5 cards
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
82.3%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.09
-3.1%
ā Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
82.3%
1.21
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
+5.1%
ā Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.5%
1.23
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
+5.1%
ā Miss
Over 1.5
76.6%
1.19
Pinnacle
1.25
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-0.9%
ā Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.3%
1.18
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.15
-2.2%
ā Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.2%
1.40
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
-
+9.9%
ā Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
74.9%
1.43
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.45
888Sport
1.44
Bet365
1.44
+10.2%
ā Miss
Home or Away
74.5%
1.17
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
888Sport
1.18
-5.0%
ā Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.1%
1.31
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.31
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
-
+4.0%
ā Hit
Under 3.5
70.9%
1.42
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.43
BetVictor
1.40
+5.5%
ā Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
š½ 13. Player market rates
HNK Rijeka
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Daniel Adu-Adjei33%
Justas Lasickas20%
Jakov PuljiÄ17%
Toni Fruk17%
Amer Gojak0%
Ante MajstoroviÄ0%
Niko JankoviÄ0%
Alfonso Barco0%
Tiago Dantas0%
Mladen Devetak0%
Aleksa TodoroviÄ0%
Ivan ÄubeliÄ0%
Ante OreÄ0%
Samuele Vignato0%
Anel HusiÄ0%
Yusuf Kabadayi0%
Branko PaviÄ0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jakov PuljiÄ50%
Ivan ÄubeliÄ33%
Anel HusiÄ33%
Alfonso Barco25%
Justas Lasickas20%
Ante MajstoroviÄ17%
Toni Fruk17%
Amer Gojak0%
Niko JankoviÄ0%
Tiago Dantas0%
Mladen Devetak0%
Aleksa TodoroviÄ0%
Ante OreÄ0%
Samuele Vignato0%
Yusuf Kabadayi0%
Daniel Adu-Adjei0%
Branko PaviÄ0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tiago Dantas33%
Ante OreÄ20%
Toni Fruk17%
Amer Gojak0%
Jakov PuljiÄ0%
Ante MajstoroviÄ0%
Niko JankoviÄ0%
Alfonso Barco0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Mladen Devetak0%
Aleksa TodoroviÄ0%
Ivan ÄubeliÄ0%
Samuele Vignato0%
Anel HusiÄ0%
Yusuf Kabadayi0%
Daniel Adu-Adjei0%
Branko PaviÄ0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Niko JankoviÄ50%
Toni Fruk33%
Jakov PuljiÄ17%
Daniel Adu-Adjei17%
Amer Gojak0%
Ante MajstoroviÄ0%
Alfonso Barco0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Tiago Dantas0%
Mladen Devetak0%
Aleksa TodoroviÄ0%
Ivan ÄubeliÄ0%
Ante OreÄ0%
Samuele Vignato0%
Anel HusiÄ0%
Yusuf Kabadayi0%
Branko PaviÄ0%
Istra 1961
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emil Frederiksen75%
Hamza Jaganjac50%
Dukan Ahmeti50%
Advan KaduÅ”iÄ0%
Samuli Miettinen0%
Franko KoliÄ0%
Ivan Å araniÄ0%
Vinko RoziÄ0%
Mohamed Nasraoui0%
Antonio MauriÄ0%
Daouda Doumbia0%
Rene Hrvatin0%
Gustavo AlbarracĆn0%
Niko Å epiÄ0%
Nik Å kafar ŽužiÄ0%
Matija Kablar0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Hamza Jaganjac50%
Samuli Miettinen33%
Daouda Doumbia25%
Emil Frederiksen0%
Advan KaduÅ”iÄ0%
Franko KoliÄ0%
Ivan Å araniÄ0%
Vinko RoziÄ0%
Mohamed Nasraoui0%
Antonio MauriÄ0%
Rene Hrvatin0%
Gustavo AlbarracĆn0%
Dukan Ahmeti0%
Niko Å epiÄ0%
Nik Å kafar ŽužiÄ0%
Matija Kablar0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dukan Ahmeti50%
Emil Frederiksen25%
Hamza Jaganjac25%
Nik Å kafar ŽužiÄ25%
Advan KaduÅ”iÄ0%
Samuli Miettinen0%
Franko KoliÄ0%
Ivan Å araniÄ0%
Vinko RoziÄ0%
Mohamed Nasraoui0%
Antonio MauriÄ0%
Daouda Doumbia0%
Rene Hrvatin0%
Gustavo AlbarracĆn0%
Niko Å epiÄ0%
Matija Kablar0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Emil Frederiksen50%
Ivan Å araniÄ25%
Hamza Jaganjac25%
Nik Å kafar ŽužiÄ25%
Advan KaduÅ”iÄ0%
Samuli Miettinen0%
Franko KoliÄ0%
Vinko RoziÄ0%
Mohamed Nasraoui0%
Antonio MauriÄ0%
Daouda Doumbia0%
Rene Hrvatin0%
Gustavo AlbarracĆn0%
Dukan Ahmeti0%
Niko Å epiÄ0%
Matija Kablar0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (34)
€66m
HR (32)
€34m
HHS (29)
€34m
NO (33)
€15m
NV (27)
€11m
I1 (23)
€11m
NLZ (34)
€10m
HG (27)
€9m
NSB (31)
€8m
RUD (27)
€5m
HNK Rijeka's squad is €23m more valuable than Istra 1961's (€34m vs €11m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (15)
€33m
HR (15)
€21m
HHS (10)
€15m
NO (16)
€9m
NV (9)
€6m
I1 (10)
€4m
HG (10)
€4m
NSB (10)
€3m
NLZ (8)
€3m
RUD (13)
€3m
HNK Rijeka's attack is €17m more valuable than Istra 1961's (€21m vs €4m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HHS (6)
€8m
HR (3)
€5m
NLZ (8)
€3m
I1 (4)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
HG (6)
€2m
NSB (6)
€2m
NO (4)
€1m
NV (4)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
HNK Rijeka's midfield is €3m more valuable than Istra 1961's (€5m vs €2m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (17)
€30m
HHS (13)
€11m
HR (14)
€8m
NV (14)
€5m
I1 (9)
€5m
NO (13)
€4m
NLZ (18)
€4m
NSB (15)
€3m
HG (11)
€3m
RUD (10)
€1m
HNK Rijeka's defence is €3m more valuable than Istra 1961's (€8m vs €5m).
Croatia: HNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
NK Osijek
NK Varazdin
Dinamo Zagreb
HNK Hajduk Split
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Rudes
NK Slaven Belupo
HNK Gorica