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Hobro vs Hillerød Result & Analysis

Date: 10/04/2023
Time: 11:00
Final 2-1
Hobro
Hobro
Vs
43%
28%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hillerød
Hillerød
Denmark: 1. Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hobro win✓ Hit
43.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hillerød win✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

HobroHobro

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D01L22D31W12L21W22D12L31WA·FC 23/10H·NAE30/10H·HB 04/11A·HIL11/02H·VEN19/02A·FRE24/02H·NYK05/03H·HVI12/03A·FC 18/03A·HB 02/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.961.351.271.090.671.58
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.901.381.101.100.731.64
vs Weaker (2)1.501.003.001.000.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HillerødHillerød

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W30W32W22D20W11D02L20W10W10WA·SON21/10H·FRE29/10A·VEJ06/11H·HOB11/02A·FC 19/02H·HVI25/02A·FC 03/03H·NAE11/03A·HB 18/03H·FRE01/04
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.521.421.331.181.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.351.411.331.441.381.38
vs Weaker (6)1.171.831.671.000.672.67
Clean sheet %26% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.9%
Under 1.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.7%
Under 2.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.8%
Under 3.5
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.9%
No
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
9.5%
2-1 ✓
9.0%
0-0
8.5%
2-0
7.9%
0-1
7.1%
1-2
7.1%
2-2
5.2%
Hobro goals ↓
Hillerød goals →
01234
08.5%7.1%4.8%1.8%0.5%
19.5%14%7.1%2.7%0.8%
27.9%9.0%5.2%2.0%0.6%
33.9%4.4%2.5%1.0%0.3%
41.4%1.6%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hobro goals (down), columns = Hillerød goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vejle
2.09
Hvidovre
1.81
Sonderjyske
1.75
Vendsyssel FF
1.44
FC Fredericia
1.41
HB Koge
1.38
Naestved
1.34
FC Helsingor
1.31
Hillerød
1.28
Hobro
1.19
Fremad Amager
1.06
Nykobing FC
0.72
Hobro is 0.09 points worse than Hillerød in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.28).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hvidovre
2.03
Vejle
1.91
Sonderjyske
1.88
FC Fredericia
1.75
Naestved
1.56
HB Koge
1.56
Vendsyssel FF
1.50
FC Helsingor
1.47
Nykobing FC
1.34
Fremad Amager
1.19
Hillerød
1.16
Hobro
1.03
Hobro is 0.12 goals worse than Hillerød in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.16).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Vejle
0.94
Hvidovre
1.28
Hobro
1.31
Vendsyssel FF
1.34
Sonderjyske
1.41
Naestved
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Hillerød
1.59
HB Koge
1.59
FC Helsingor
1.75
Fremad Amager
1.88
Nykobing FC
2.28
Hobro is 0.28 goals better than Hillerød in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.59).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

HobroHobro

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L21W10W01L10W21W11D20WA·FC 23/10H·NAE30/10H·HB 04/11A·HIL11/02H·VEN19/02A·FRE24/02H·NYK05/03H·HVI12/03A·FC 18/03A·HB 02/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.520.610.640.450.420.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.520.620.600.500.450.73
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HillerødHillerød

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W20W01L12L00D00D01L00D00D00DA·SON21/10H·FRE29/10A·VEJ06/11H·HOB11/02A·FC 19/02H·HVI25/02A·FC 03/03H·NAE11/03A·HB 18/03H·FRE01/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.350.830.500.670.181.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.350.820.440.780.250.88
vs Weaker (6)0.330.830.670.330.001.33
Clean sheet %39% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hobro over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

HobroHobro

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D01L21W11D11D01L01L11DA·FC 23/10H·NAE30/10H·HB 04/11A·HIL11/02H·VEN19/02A·FRE24/02H·NYK05/03H·HVI12/03A·FC 18/03A·HB 02/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.740.640.640.250.83
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.380.760.500.600.270.91
vs Weaker (2)1.000.502.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HillerødHillerød

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W31W10W20W11D01L20W10W10WA·SON21/10H·FRE29/10A·VEJ06/11H·HOB11/02A·FC 19/02H·HVI25/02A·FC 03/03H·NAE11/03A·HB 18/03H·FRE01/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.960.700.920.671.000.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.000.590.890.671.120.50
vs Weaker (6)0.831.001.000.670.671.33
Clean sheet %48% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hobro over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SON (26)
€13m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
HOB (23)
€7m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
VF (3)
€1m
Hobro's squad is €3m more valuable than Hillerød's (€7m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
SON (6)
€3m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
Hobro and Hillerød have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SON (7)
€3m
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
Hobro and Hillerød have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SON (13)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
VF (0)
€0m
Hobro's defence is €1m more valuable than Hillerød's (€3m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
HOB wins
2
Draws
0
HIL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hobro vs Hillerød · H/A from HOB
DateH/AGameScore
11/02/23AHillerød Vs HOB2-2
20/08/22HHOB Vs Hillerød1-1

HobroHobro

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/04/23AHB Koge Vs HOB1-3
18/03/23AFC Helsingor Vs HOB2-1
12/03/23HHOB Vs Hvidovre2-2
05/03/23HHOB Vs Nykobing FC2-1
24/02/23AFremad Amager Vs HOB2-1
19/02/23HHOB Vs Vendsyssel FF3-1
11/02/23AHillerød Vs HOB2-2
04/11/22HHOB Vs HB Koge0-1
30/10/22HHOB Vs Naestved0-0
23/10/22AFC Fredericia Vs HOB0-0

HillerødHillerød

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/04/23HHIL Vs Fremad Amager1-0
18/03/23AHB Koge Vs HIL0-1
11/03/23HHIL Vs Naestved2-0
03/03/23AFC Helsingor Vs HIL2-0
25/02/23HHIL Vs Hvidovre1-1
19/02/23AFC Fredericia Vs HIL0-2
11/02/23HHIL Vs Hobro2-2
06/11/22AVejle Vs HIL2-3
29/10/22HHIL Vs Fremad Amager3-0
21/10/22ASonderjyske Vs HIL2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hobro
Hobro
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLW1.13
HomeDLWWD1.64
AwayDDLLW0.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%45%8%
AVG goals2.302.362.25
Over 1.5 %65%64%67%
Over 2.5 %48%55%42%
Over 3.5 %26%27%25%
Scored0.961.270.67
Conceded1.351.091.58
BTTS43%45%42%
Clean Sheet30%36%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Hillerød
Hillerød
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWW1.48
HomeWDDWW1.67
AwayWWWLW1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %43%50%36%
AVG goals2.832.752.91
Over 1.5 %87%92%82%
Over 2.5 %39%42%36%
Over 3.5 %30%25%36%
Scored1.301.421.18
Conceded1.521.331.73
BTTS48%42%55%
Clean Sheet26%33%18%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VejleVejle3267
62%
2.1
6130+31
2.8
75%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3241.90.9
-
2HvidovreHvidovre3258
53%
1.8
6541+24
3.3
81%
69%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.01.3
-
3SonderjyskeSonderjyske3256
50%
1.8
6045+15
3.3
78%
66%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
3361.91.4
-
4Vendsyssel FFVendsyssel FF3246
41%
1.4
4843+5
2.8
75%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.3
-
5FC FredericiaFC Fredericia3245
41%
1.4
5648+8
3.2
78%
69%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
2331.81.5
-
6HB KogeHB Koge3244
41%
1.4
5051-1
3.2
72%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.61.6
-
7NaestvedNaestved3243
34%
1.3
5048+2
3.1
84%
56%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.5
-
8FC HelsingorFC Helsingor3242
41%
1.3
4756-9
3.2
72%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
9HillerødHillerød3241
38%
1.3
3751-14
2.8
81%
41%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.6
-
10HobroHobro3238
28%
1.2
3342-9
2.3
69%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.01.3
-
11Fremad AmagerFremad Amager3234
31%
1.1
3860-22
3.1
69%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
12Nykobing FCNykobing FC3223
19%
0.7
4373-30
3.6
91%
66%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.3
-
Denmark: 1. Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →

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