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Hobro vs Hillerød Result & Analysis

Date: 11/11/2024
Time: 18:00
Final 2-2
Hobro
Hobro
Vs
29%
26%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hillerød
Hillerød
Denmark: 1. Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hobro win✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hillerød win✗ Miss
45.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

HobroHobro

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L01L23L11D10W02L41W14L14L23LH·ODE25/08H·B 902/09A·MID10/09A·FC 16/09H·KOL20/09A·AC 28/09H·ROS04/10A·HB 18/10H·FC 27/10A·ESB03/11
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.771.641.791.501.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.381.881.461.851.271.91
vs Weaker (6)2.331.334.001.002.001.40
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HillerødHillerød

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L31W30W14L03L11D22D13L20W10WH·KOL30/08A·OKS03/09A·VEN14/09H·FC 17/09H·FC 23/09A·ESB29/09H·VEN04/10A·KOL18/10H·AC 25/10H·HVI01/11
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.201.671.401.671.00
vs Stronger (1)1.004.001.004.00--
vs Similar (25)1.561.041.581.081.541.00
vs Weaker (4)2.501.502.502.002.501.00
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.0%
Under 1.5
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.9%
Under 2.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.5%
Under 3.5
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.7%
No
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
1-2
9.3%
2-1
7.3%
0-1
7.0%
0-2
6.9%
2-2 ✓
6.2%
0-0
5.8%
1-3
5.3%
Hobro goals ↓
Hillerød goals →
01234
05.8%7.0%6.9%3.9%1.7%
15.3%12%9.3%5.3%2.3%
24.3%7.3%6.2%3.6%1.5%
31.9%3.3%2.8%1.6%0.7%
40.6%1.1%0.9%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hobro goals (down), columns = Hillerød goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Odense
2.03
FC Fredericia
2.00
Hillerød
1.62
AC Horsens
1.59
Kolding IF
1.56
Hvidovre
1.41
Esbjerg
1.28
Hobro
1.22
B 93
1.09
HB Koge
1.06
Vendsyssel FF
0.94
Roskilde
0.81
Hobro is 0.41 points worse than Hillerød in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.62).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Odense
2.16
FC Fredericia
2.03
Hillerød
1.75
Esbjerg
1.62
AC Horsens
1.53
B 93
1.31
Hobro
1.22
Roskilde
1.16
Kolding IF
1.12
HB Koge
1.12
Vendsyssel FF
1.09
Hvidovre
1.03
Hobro is 0.53 goals worse than Hillerød in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.75).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kolding IF
0.88
FC Fredericia
0.94
Hvidovre
1.09
Odense
1.09
Hillerød
1.19
AC Horsens
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.53
Hobro
1.59
Esbjerg
1.75
HB Koge
1.78
B 93
1.91
Roskilde
1.91
Hobro is 0.41 goals worse than Hillerød in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.19).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

HobroHobro

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L02L00D10W00D11D13L11D01LH·ODE25/08H·B 902/09A·MID10/09A·FC 16/09H·KOL20/09A·AC 28/09H·ROS04/10A·HB 18/10H·FC 27/10A·ESB03/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.770.500.790.620.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.500.790.540.770.450.82
vs Weaker (6)0.830.670.001.001.000.60
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HillerødHillerød

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L31W20W02L01L11D21W01L10W00DH·KOL30/08A·OKS03/09A·VEN14/09H·FC 17/09H·FC 23/09A·ESB29/09H·VEN04/10A·KOL18/10H·AC 25/10H·HVI01/11
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.530.670.600.730.47
vs Stronger (1)0.002.000.002.00--
vs Similar (25)0.640.400.580.420.690.38
vs Weaker (4)1.251.001.501.001.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hobro over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

HobroHobro

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D21W11D00D02L30W01L03L22DH·ODE25/08H·B 902/09A·MID10/09A·FC 16/09H·KOL20/09A·AC 28/09H·ROS04/10A·HB 18/10H·FC 27/10A·ESB03/11
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.001.141.000.881.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.881.080.921.080.821.09
vs Weaker (6)1.500.674.000.001.000.80
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HillerødHillerød

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D10W12L02L00D01L12L10W10WH·KOL30/08A·OKS03/09A·VEN14/09H·FC 17/09H·FC 23/09A·ESB29/09H·VEN04/10A·KOL18/10H·AC 25/10H·HVI01/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.671.000.800.930.53
vs Stronger (1)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Similar (25)0.920.641.000.670.850.62
vs Weaker (4)1.250.501.001.001.500.00
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hobro over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ODE (24)
€17m
AH (27)
€10m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
VF (3)
€1m
Hobro's squad is €3m more valuable than Hillerød's (€7m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ODE (9)
€8m
AH (9)
€4m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
Hobro and Hillerød have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
ODE (6)
€3m
AH (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
Hobro and Hillerød have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ODE (9)
€7m
AH (12)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
VF (0)
€0m
Hobro's defence is €1m more valuable than Hillerød's (€3m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
2
HOB wins
5
Draws
0
HIL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hobro vs Hillerød · H/A from HOB
DateH/AGameScore
21/07/24AHillerød Vs HOB2-2
13/11/23HHOB Vs Hillerød0-0
04/08/23AHillerød Vs HOB0-1
02/06/23AHillerød Vs HOB0-0
10/04/23HHOB Vs Hillerød2-1
11/02/23AHillerød Vs HOB2-2
20/08/22HHOB Vs Hillerød1-1

HobroHobro

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/11/24AEsbjerg Vs HOB3-2
27/10/24HHOB Vs FC Fredericia1-4
18/10/24AHB Koge Vs HOB4-1
04/10/24HHOB Vs Roskilde4-1
28/09/24AAC Horsens Vs HOB2-0
20/09/24HHOB Vs Kolding IF1-0
16/09/24AFC Fredericia Vs HOB1-1
10/09/24AMiddelfart Vs HOB3-2
02/09/24HHOB Vs B 930-1
25/08/24HHOB Vs Odense0-3

HillerødHillerød

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/11/24HHIL Vs Hvidovre1-0
25/10/24HHIL Vs AC Horsens2-0
18/10/24AKolding IF Vs HIL3-1
04/10/24HHIL Vs Vendsyssel FF2-2
29/09/24AEsbjerg Vs HIL1-1
23/09/24HHIL Vs FC Fredericia0-3
17/09/24HHIL Vs FC Midtjylland1-4
14/09/24AVendsyssel FF Vs HIL0-3
03/09/24AOKS Vs HIL1-3
30/08/24HHIL Vs Kolding IF0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hobro
Hobro
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL1.38
HomeLLWWL1.21
AwayLDLLL1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%33%46%
AVG goals2.843.002.69
Over 1.5 %76%75%77%
Over 2.5 %54%58%50%
Over 3.5 %30%29%31%
Scored1.401.381.42
Conceded1.441.621.27
BTTS58%67%50%
Clean Sheet24%12%35%
Corners---
Cards---
Hillerød
Hillerød
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWW1.50
HomeLLDWW1.48
AwayDWWDL1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%40%40%
AVG goals3.002.843.16
Over 1.5 %78%76%80%
Over 2.5 %58%52%64%
Over 3.5 %44%40%48%
Scored1.681.441.92
Conceded1.321.401.24
BTTS50%44%56%
Clean Sheet34%36%32%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1OdenseOdense3265
56%
2.0
6935+34
3.2
88%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
8372.21.1
-
2FC FredericiaFC Fredericia3264
62%
2.0
6530+35
3.0
75%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
2332.00.9
-
3HillerødHillerød3252
44%
1.6
5638+18
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.81.2
-
4AC HorsensAC Horsens3251
47%
1.6
4948+1
3.0
78%
59%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.51.5
-
5Kolding IFKolding IF3250
44%
1.6
3628+8
2.0
53%
38%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.10.9
-
6HvidovreHvidovre3245
38%
1.4
3335-2
2.1
53%
31%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.1
-
7EsbjergEsbjerg3241
41%
1.3
5256-4
3.4
88%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.61.8
-
8HobroHobro3239
31%
1.2
3951-12
2.8
78%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.21.6
-
9B 93B 933235
28%
1.1
4261-19
3.2
78%
69%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
10HB KogeHB Koge3234
28%
1.1
3657-21
2.9
81%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.11.8
-
11Vendsyssel FFVendsyssel FF3230
22%
0.9
3549-14
2.6
75%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.5
-
12RoskildeRoskilde3226
22%
0.8
3761-24
3.1
88%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
Denmark: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →

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