The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an average of 3.9 goals and a 20% chance of six or more. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 8.4% probability. Home side Hodd, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.18 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. Away Lyn, on the road against a similar tier, averages 2.08 goals scored and only 1.15 conceded. The predicted outcome favours an away win, with 41% probability, followed by a 37% home win and a 22% draw. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (95.4%), Over 1.5 (90.9%), Under 6.5 (89.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.4%), Away over 0.5 goals (86.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (85.6%), Home over 0.5 goals (85.1%) and Away +2 handicap (80.0%). Hodd are on a three-game winning streak after a 4-3 victory over Strommen, while Lyn come off a 5-1 win against ODD Ballklubb.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
hodd win
36.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lyn win
41.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
hodd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
2.17
1.80
1.73
1.27
2.60
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
3.14
1.67
2.00
0.75
4.00
vs Similar (22)
1.64
1.95
1.83
1.67
1.40
2.30
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.37
2.00
1.25
2.33
1.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
2.08
1.38
1.91
1.18
2.20
1.53
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
1.25
3.00
2.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (hodd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
92.8%
Under 1.5
7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
78.7%
Under 2.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
60.1%
Under 3.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
77.4%
No
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
7.3%
2-2
7.3%
1-2
7.2%
2-1
6.8%
2-3
5.2%
1-3
5.2%
3-2
4.9%
3-1
4.6%
hodd goals ↓
Lyn goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.2%
2.6%
3.5%
2.5%
1.4%
1
2.4%
7.3%
7.2%
5.2%
2.8%
2
3.1%
6.8%
7.3%
5.2%
2.8%
3
2.1%
4.6%
4.9%
3.5%
1.9%
4
1.1%
2.3%
2.5%
1.8%
1.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = hodd goals (down), columns = Lyn goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Ranheim
0.50
Raufoss
0.50
Moss
0.29
hodd is 0.31 points better than Lyn in terms of average points per game (2.14 vs 1.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
hodd is 0.57 goals worse than Lyn in terms of goals scored per game (2.43 vs 3.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
hodd is 0.69 goals worse than Lyn in terms of goals conceded per game (2.86 vs 2.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
hodd or Draw
58.4%
Avg Implied -
37%
22%
42%
covers hodd + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
hodd or Lyn
78.5%
Avg Implied -
37%
22%
42%
covers hodd + Lyn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lyn
63.2%
Avg Implied -
37%
22%
42%
covers Draw + Lyn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
hodd over/under 0.5
Over
86.8%
Under
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 1.5
Over
60.1%
Under
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 2.5
Over
33.1%
Under
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 3.5
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyn over/under 0.5
Over
88.4%
Under
11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyn over/under 1.5
Over
63.4%
Under
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyn over/under 2.5
Over
36.5%
Under
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyn over/under 3.5
Over
17.2%
Under
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to hodd, so a minus line means hodd give that many goals of a start and Lyn receive them. At -1, hodd must win by two or more to land; a one-goal hodd win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (hodd)
hodd -2
9.4%
Draw -2
11.1%
Lyn +2
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (hodd)
hodd -1
20.5%
Draw -1
16.4%
Lyn +1
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (hodd)
hodd +1
58.4%
Draw +1
17.4%
Lyn -1
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (hodd)
hodd +2
75.8%
Draw +2
12.5%
Lyn -2
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
hodd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.93
1.13
0.73
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.14
1.00
0.67
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.91
1.17
0.75
0.50
1.10
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.63
1.17
0.67
1.06
0.61
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.15
0.58
1.27
0.64
1.07
0.53
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (hodd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.9%
Under 0.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.0%
Under 1.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.2%
Under 2.5
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
hodd over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.0%
Under
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyn over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.8%
Under
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyn over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.5%
Under
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyn over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
hodd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.23
0.67
1.00
0.73
1.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
2.00
0.67
1.33
0.25
2.50
vs Similar (22)
0.77
1.05
0.67
0.92
0.90
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.73
0.83
0.58
1.28
0.83
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.81
0.64
0.55
1.13
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.25
3.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (hodd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.9%
Under 0.5
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.6%
Under 1.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
27.8%
Under 2.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
hodd over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.1%
Under
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyn over/under 0.5 2H
Over
65.3%
Under
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyn over/under 1.5 2H
Over
25.2%
Under
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyn over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
hodd and Lyn have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
hodd and Lyn have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
hodd's midfield is €1m less valuable than Lyn's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
hodd and Lyn have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stabaek
Haugesund
Kongsvinger
Stromsgodset
Bryne
Egersund
Strommen
ODD Ballklubb
Sogndal
Asane
Sandnes ULF
Ranheim
Raufoss
Moss