Hodd’s recent five-match run of four wins and one loss, capped by a 2-1 victory over Stabaek, fuels optimism for a home triumph, a result the model deems most likely. The odds suggest a 42% chance for a Hodd win, 22% for a draw, and 36% for a Ranheim win. With an expected 4.1 goals and a 23% probability of six or more, the match is primed for fireworks, yet the single most probable scoreline remains 1-1 at 7.8%. Hodd averages 1.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Ranheim, on the road, nets 1.87 and concedes 2.0 against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (94.5%), Over 1.5 (92.0%), Under 6.5 (88.2%), Home over 0.5 goals (87.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (86.3%), Away over 0.5 goals (86.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (83.9%), and Home +2 handicap (80.0%). Each pick carries its own probability, independent of the match-result odds.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
hodd win
41.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ranheim win
36.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
hodd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
2.17
1.80
1.73
1.27
2.60
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
3.14
1.67
2.00
0.75
4.00
vs Similar (22)
1.64
1.95
1.83
1.67
1.40
2.30
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ranheim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ranheim
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
2.03
1.93
2.07
1.81
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
0.00
4.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.96
1.96
2.08
1.92
1.87
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (hodd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
92.0%
Under 1.5
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
77.2%
Under 2.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
58.0%
Under 3.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
76.2%
No
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
7.8%
2-1
7.4%
2-2
7.3%
1-2
7.0%
3-1
5.2%
3-2
5.1%
2-3
4.8%
1-3
4.6%
hodd goals ↓
Ranheim goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.4%
2.7%
3.3%
2.2%
1.1%
1
2.9%
7.8%
7.0%
4.6%
2.2%
2
3.8%
7.4%
7.3%
4.8%
2.4%
3
2.6%
5.2%
5.1%
3.4%
1.7%
4
1.4%
2.7%
2.7%
1.8%
0.9%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = hodd goals (down), columns = Ranheim goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Raufoss
0.50
Ranheim
0.50
Moss
0.29
hodd is 1.64 points better than Ranheim in terms of average points per game (2.14 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
hodd is 0.07 goals worse than Ranheim in terms of goals scored per game (2.43 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
hodd is 0.48 goals better than Ranheim in terms of goals conceded per game (2.86 vs 3.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
hodd or Draw
63.5%
Avg Implied -
42%
22%
37%
covers hodd + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
hodd or Ranheim
78.1%
Avg Implied -
42%
22%
37%
covers hodd + Ranheim
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ranheim
58.4%
Avg Implied -
42%
22%
37%
covers Draw + Ranheim
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
hodd over/under 0.5
Over
87.8%
Under
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 1.5
Over
62.1%
Under
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 2.5
Over
35.1%
Under
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 3.5
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranheim over/under 0.5
Over
86.0%
Under
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranheim over/under 1.5
Over
58.5%
Under
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranheim over/under 2.5
Over
31.5%
Under
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranheim over/under 3.5
Over
13.7%
Under
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to hodd, so a minus line means hodd give that many goals of a start and Ranheim receive them. At -1, hodd must win by two or more to land; a one-goal hodd win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (hodd)
hodd -2
11.4%
Draw -2
12.5%
Ranheim +2
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (hodd)
hodd -1
24.0%
Draw -1
17.6%
Ranheim +1
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (hodd)
hodd +1
63.5%
Draw +1
16.4%
Ranheim -1
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (hodd)
hodd +2
79.9%
Draw +2
11.0%
Ranheim -2
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
hodd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.93
1.13
0.73
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.14
1.00
0.67
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.91
1.17
0.75
0.50
1.10
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ranheim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ranheim
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.93
0.79
1.00
0.69
0.88
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.86
0.85
0.85
0.73
0.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (hodd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
hodd over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranheim over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranheim over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranheim over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
hodd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.23
0.67
1.00
0.73
1.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
2.00
0.67
1.33
0.25
2.50
vs Similar (22)
0.77
1.05
0.67
0.92
0.90
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ranheim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ranheim
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.10
1.14
1.07
1.12
1.12
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.18
1.11
1.23
1.08
1.13
1.13
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (hodd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
hodd over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranheim over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranheim over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranheim over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
hodd and Ranheim have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
hodd and Ranheim have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
hodd and Ranheim have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
hodd and Ranheim have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stabaek
Haugesund
Kongsvinger
Stromsgodset
Bryne
Lyn
Egersund
Strommen
ODD Ballklubb
Sogndal
Asane
Sandnes ULF
Raufoss
Moss