This opponent (1. FC Nürnberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Nürnberg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.50
1.13
1.60
1.80
1.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
4.50
0.00
6.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.18
1.71
1.00
1.78
1.38
1.62
vs Weaker (11)
2.09
0.64
1.60
0.40
2.50
0.83
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.0%
Under 1.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.8%
@ 1.78+10.8%
Under 2.5
36.2%
@ 2.01-10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.7%
Under 3.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.6%
No
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
1-2
9.0%
2-1
7.5%
2-2
6.7%
0-2
6.0%
0-1
5.7%
1-3
5.4%
0-0
4.7%
Holstein Kiel goals ↓
1. FC Nürnberg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
5.7%
6.0%
3.6%
1.6%
1
4.6%
11%
9.0%
5.4%
2.4%
2
4.2%
7.5%
6.7%
4.0%
1.8%
3
2.1%
3.7%
3.3%
2.0%
0.9%
4
0.8%
1.4%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Holstein Kiel goals (down), columns = 1. FC Nürnberg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
VfL Bochum
1.97
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.88
Holstein Kiel
1.82
Hamburger SV
1.71
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.65
Karlsruher SC
1.53
SV Darmstadt 98
1.50
1. FC Heidenheim
1.50
FC St. Pauli
1.38
SC Paderborn 07
1.38
Erzgebirge Aue
1.29
1. FC Nürnberg
1.29
Hannover 96
1.24
Regensburg
1.12
SV Sandhausen
1.00
VfL Osnabrück
0.97
Eintracht Braunschweig
0.91
Wurzburger Kickers
0.74
Holstein Kiel is 0.53 points better than 1. FC Nürnberg in terms of average points per game (1.82 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamburger SV
2.09
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2.03
VfL Bochum
1.94
SV Darmstadt 98
1.85
Holstein Kiel
1.68
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.62
Hannover 96
1.56
SC Paderborn 07
1.56
FC St. Pauli
1.50
Karlsruher SC
1.50
1. FC Heidenheim
1.44
1. FC Nürnberg
1.35
Erzgebirge Aue
1.29
SV Sandhausen
1.21
Wurzburger Kickers
1.09
Regensburg
1.09
VfL Osnabrück
1.03
Eintracht Braunschweig
0.88
Holstein Kiel is 0.32 goals better than 1. FC Nürnberg in terms of goals scored per game (1.68 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Holstein Kiel
1.03
VfL Bochum
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.29
Hamburger SV
1.29
Karlsruher SC
1.29
SC Paderborn 07
1.32
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.35
1. FC Heidenheim
1.44
Regensburg
1.47
Hannover 96
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.50
Erzgebirge Aue
1.56
SV Darmstadt 98
1.62
FC St. Pauli
1.65
VfL Osnabrück
1.71
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.74
SV Sandhausen
1.76
Wurzburger Kickers
2.03
Holstein Kiel is 0.47 goals better than 1. FC Nürnberg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Holstein Kiel
For 3.3 · Against 5.4 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 14.5 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
1. FC Nürnberg
For 5.2 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 14.0 · Total 26.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Holstein Kiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.0
10.5
4.2
4.1
4.2
23.8
25.2
22.2
vs Stronger (5)
9.2
9.3
9.0
4.8
4.0
6.0
21.2
21.7
20.5
vs Similar (30)
10.3
9.5
11.3
3.8
4.1
3.4
24.4
26.1
22.2
vs Weaker (15)
10.6
11.8
9.8
4.7
4.2
5.0
23.3
24.5
22.6
% over line
44%
42%
46%
64%
65%
62%
68%
77%
58%
% under line
56%
58%
54%
36%
35%
38%
32%
23%
42%
This opponent (1. FC Nürnberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Nürnberg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.6
9.2
4.0
3.8
4.2
24.6
23.3
26.0
vs Stronger (4)
10.0
9.0
11.0
2.2
3.0
1.5
22.2
24.5
20.0
vs Similar (28)
9.6
9.7
9.5
3.9
3.4
4.3
25.0
24.2
25.7
vs Weaker (18)
10.3
12.2
8.4
4.7
4.6
4.8
24.6
21.6
27.7
% over line
54%
60%
48%
62%
56%
68%
74%
64%
84%
% under line
46%
40%
52%
38%
44%
32%
26%
36%
16%
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
SV Sandhausen
11.5
SC Paderborn 07
11.2
Regensburg
10.8
SV Darmstadt 98
10.8
Hamburger SV
10.8
Karlsruher SC
10.6
FC St. Pauli
10.6
1. FC Heidenheim
10.4
Holstein Kiel
10.3
VfL Bochum
10.2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10.1
1. FC Nürnberg
9.9
VfL Osnabrück
9.7
Eintracht Braunschweig
9.7
Fortuna Düsseldorf
9.3
Hannover 96
9.2
Erzgebirge Aue
9.1
Wurzburger Kickers
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Wurzburger Kickers
5.5
Erzgebirge Aue
5.1
VfL Osnabrück
5.0
SV Sandhausen
5.0
Karlsruher SC
4.8
Regensburg
4.7
VfL Bochum
4.6
SV Darmstadt 98
4.5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
4.5
SC Paderborn 07
4.4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.3
Eintracht Braunschweig
4.3
Hannover 96
4.3
Holstein Kiel
4.2
1. FC Nürnberg
4.0
FC St. Pauli
3.9
Hamburger SV
3.7
1. FC Heidenheim
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
29.2
Wurzburger Kickers
28.6
Eintracht Braunschweig
28.0
Regensburg
27.9
SV Sandhausen
27.3
VfL Osnabrück
27.1
Karlsruher SC
26.7
VfL Bochum
26.3
Erzgebirge Aue
25.7
SV Darmstadt 98
25.5
Hannover 96
25.3
FC St. Pauli
25.3
1. FC Nürnberg
24.6
Fortuna Düsseldorf
24.4
Hamburger SV
23.9
Holstein Kiel
23.8
1. FC Heidenheim
23.4
SC Paderborn 07
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
47.3%
Under 9.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
65.9%
Under 3.5
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
81.7%
Under 21.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Holstein Kiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.69
0.62
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.50
0.58
0.58
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.67
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.57
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Nürnberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Nürnberg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
0.60
0.53
1.07
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
3.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.59
0.67
0.56
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.18
0.60
0.00
1.50
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Holstein Kiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.90
0.81
0.81
1.07
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.94
0.67
0.83
0.58
1.17
0.83
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
1.33
0.00
2.00
0.86
1.14
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Nürnberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Nürnberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.00
0.53
1.07
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (17)
0.47
1.12
0.33
1.22
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
0.45
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Holstein Kiel · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi50%
Jonas Therkelsen25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kasper Davidsen75%
Ivan Nekić50%
Jonas Therkelsen50%
Hiroki Sekine50%
Timon Weiner33%
Leon Parduzi33%
Jonas Meffert25%
Guillermo Balzi25%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Phil Harres0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Phil Harres50%
Adrián Kaprálik50%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Guillermo Balzi0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
1. FC Nürnberg · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mohamed Ali Zoma50%
Piet Scobel50%
Julian Justvan25%
Tim Janisch25%
Adam Markhiev25%
Rayan Ghrieb0%
Finn Ole Becker0%
Jan Reichert0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Giannis Masouras0%
Fynn Otto0%
Alexios Kalogeropoulos0%
Rafael Lubach0%
Eric Porstner0%
Javier Fernandez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Javier Fernandez50%
Rayan Ghrieb33%
Julian Justvan25%
Mohamed Ali Zoma25%
Adam Markhiev25%
Eric Porstner25%
Finn Ole Becker0%
Jan Reichert0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Giannis Masouras0%
Fynn Otto0%
Alexios Kalogeropoulos0%
Rafael Lubach0%
Tim Janisch0%
Piet Scobel0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Finn Ole Becker67%
Fynn Otto33%
Julian Justvan25%
Adam Markhiev25%
Eric Porstner25%
Piet Scobel25%
Rayan Ghrieb0%
Jan Reichert0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Giannis Masouras0%
Alexios Kalogeropoulos0%
Mohamed Ali Zoma0%
Rafael Lubach0%
Tim Janisch0%
Javier Fernandez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Piet Scobel50%
Julian Justvan25%
Mohamed Ali Zoma25%
Rayan Ghrieb0%
Finn Ole Becker0%
Jan Reichert0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Giannis Masouras0%
Fynn Otto0%
Alexios Kalogeropoulos0%
Rafael Lubach0%
Tim Janisch0%
Adam Markhiev0%
Eric Porstner0%
Javier Fernandez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (28)
€117m
FSP (27)
€46m
SP0 (33)
€43m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
H9 (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
SD9 (28)
€24m
EB (27)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
VO (25)
€10m
FD (26)
€10m
WK (27)
€4m
EA (18)
€2m
Holstein Kiel's squad is €6m less valuable than 1. FC Nürnberg's (€34m vs €40m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (11)
€46m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
SP0 (11)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
FSP (7)
€10m
H9 (9)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
EB (8)
€7m
VB (9)
€6m
VO (9)
€5m
SGF (6)
€4m
FD (8)
€3m
WK (8)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
Holstein Kiel's attack is €2m less valuable than 1. FC Nürnberg's (€12m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (5)
€34m
SP0 (13)
€18m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
H9 (8)
€11m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
EB (7)
€5m
KS (6)
€4m
VO (7)
€3m
FD (5)
€2m
WK (9)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
Holstein Kiel's midfield is €7m less valuable than 1. FC Nürnberg's (€7m vs €13m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (12)
€37m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
H9 (9)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
EB (12)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
FD (13)
€5m
VO (9)
€3m
WK (10)
€2m
EA (8)
€1m
Holstein Kiel's defence is €4m more valuable than 1. FC Nürnberg's (€16m vs €12m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
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VfL Bochum
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Hamburger SV
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Karlsruher SC
SV Darmstadt 98
1. FC Heidenheim
SC Paderborn 07
FC St. Pauli
Erzgebirge Aue
Hannover 96
SV Sandhausen
VfL Osnabrück
Eintracht Braunschweig
Wurzburger Kickers