The contest between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are almost even: 37% for Kiel, 27% for a draw, 36% for Nürnberg. The average goal output sits at 2.9, with the most likely total of 2 goals, a 24% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.7% probability. Kiel’s home form shows a modest 1.43 goals scored and 1.21 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Nürnberg, on the road, averages 1.46 scored and 1.77 conceded. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.7%, edge 2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9%, edge 5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.6%, edge 4%), Under 6.5 (96.4%, edge 2%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.6%, edge 6%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.1%, edge 5%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.4%, edge 2%), and Home under 3.5 goals (92.9%, edge 3%). Kiel arrives after a defeat, whereas Nürnberg comes off a three-game winning streak.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Holstein Kiel win
37.5%
Avg Implied 39.9% · @ 2.33
Edge
-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.40
Bet365
2.40
Betfair
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Unibet
2.38
Draw
27.2%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.51
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.67
10Bet
3.60
Dafabet
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Unibet
3.55
1. FC Nürnberg win
35.2%
Avg Implied 33.6% · @ 2.77
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.94
Betano
2.92
William Hil
2.88
1xBet
2.86
Marathonbet
2.85
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Holstein Kiel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.57
1.33
1.13
1.33
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.39
1.61
1.43
1.21
1.36
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Nürnberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Nürnberg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.27
2.13
0.87
1.47
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.78
1.39
2.20
0.90
1.46
1.77
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
0.86
2.00
0.80
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.3%
@ 1.17-0.8%
Under 1.5
20.7%
@ 4.70+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Under
Pinnacle
5.10
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.75
Betano
4.55
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.8%
@ 1.59-4.4%
Under 2.5
45.2%
@ 2.31+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.63
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Bet365
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Under
Pinnacle
2.42
Betfair
2.38
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.33
1xBet
2.33
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.5%
@ 2.41-6.2%
Under 3.5
67.5%
@ 1.52+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.52
Betfair
2.45
10Bet
2.45
Pinnacle
2.44
Under
Pinnacle
1.58
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Both teams to score
Yes
59.3%
@ 1.48-3.3%
No
40.7%
@ 2.48+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.50
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
No
Betfair
2.63
BetVictor
2.55
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.50
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%@ 6.70+6.1%
2-1
8.5%@ 8.71+3.3%
1-2
8.2%@ 9.39+3.4%
1-0
7.1%@ 10.24+2.7%
0-0
6.8%@ 13.44+3.5%
0-1
6.8%@ 11.36+2.8%
2-0
6.0%@ 13.07+2.6%
2-2
6.0%@ 10.31+1.6%
Holstein Kiel goals ↓
1. FC Nürnberg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
6.8%
5.6%
2.6%
0.9%
1
7.1%
13%
8.2%
3.9%
1.4%
2
6.0%
8.5%
6.0%
2.8%
1.0%
3
2.9%
4.2%
2.9%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.1%
1.5%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Holstein Kiel goals (down), columns = 1. FC Nürnberg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
VfL Wolfsburg
2.14
Hannover 96
1.76
1. FC Heidenheim
1.64
FC St. Pauli
1.58
SV Darmstadt 98
1.53
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.53
Hertha BSC
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.35
VfL Bochum
1.29
Karlsruher SC
1.29
Holstein Kiel
1.21
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
Arminia Bielefeld
1.15
1. FC Magdeburg
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.11
Energie Cottbus
1.09
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.09
VfL Osnabrück
1.07
Holstein Kiel is 0.15 points worse than 1. FC Nürnberg in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
VfL Wolfsburg
2.18
Hannover 96
1.76
SV Darmstadt 98
1.68
1. FC Heidenheim
1.67
FC St. Pauli
1.62
Dynamo Dresden
1.59
Arminia Bielefeld
1.56
Karlsruher SC
1.56
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.53
1. FC Magdeburg
1.53
VfL Bochum
1.44
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.42
Hertha BSC
1.38
1. FC Nürnberg
1.38
Holstein Kiel
1.29
Energie Cottbus
1.12
VfL Osnabrück
1.09
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.06
Holstein Kiel is 0.09 goals worse than 1. FC Nürnberg in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
VfL Wolfsburg
0.93
1. FC Heidenheim
1.21
FC St. Pauli
1.26
Hannover 96
1.29
Hertha BSC
1.29
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
1. FC Nürnberg
1.32
VfL Bochum
1.38
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.38
Holstein Kiel
1.41
Arminia Bielefeld
1.50
Dynamo Dresden
1.56
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.59
1. FC Magdeburg
1.71
Energie Cottbus
1.82
VfL Osnabrück
1.87
Karlsruher SC
1.88
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.92
Holstein Kiel is 0.09 goals worse than 1. FC Nürnberg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hannover 96
56%
1. FC Magdeburg
54%
Arminia Bielefeld
52%
Holstein Kiel
52%
SV Darmstadt 98
51%
Dynamo Dresden
50%
1. FC Nürnberg
49%
Hertha BSC
49%
Karlsruher SC
48%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
48%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
48%
VfL Bochum
46%
Eintracht Braunschweig
44%
Holstein Kiel is 2.4 percentage points better than 1. FC Nürnberg in terms of average possession (52% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Holstein Kiel
For 5.7 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 12.5 · Total 26.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
1. FC Nürnberg
For 4.2 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 10.5 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Holstein Kiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.5
9.7
5.4
4.8
5.9
26.5
25.9
27.0
vs Stronger (6)
10.2
9.0
11.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
19.7
20.0
19.3
vs Similar (42)
10.0
10.5
9.5
5.6
5.0
6.1
27.2
26.8
27.6
vs Weaker (2)
12.5
14.0
11.0
7.5
6.0
9.0
31.5
27.0
36.0
% over line
54%
50%
58%
80%
79%
81%
82%
79%
85%
% under line
46%
50%
42%
20%
21%
19%
18%
21%
15%
This opponent (1. FC Nürnberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Nürnberg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.8
9.4
4.9
4.8
5.0
24.9
23.7
26.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (39)
9.6
9.3
9.8
4.9
5.2
4.7
24.4
24.4
24.3
vs Weaker (11)
9.6
11.6
8.0
4.8
3.6
5.8
26.5
20.6
31.5
% over line
46%
52%
40%
80%
84%
76%
70%
68%
72%
% under line
54%
48%
60%
20%
16%
24%
30%
32%
28%
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Energie Cottbus
13.7
VfL Wolfsburg
11.7
VfL Osnabrück
10.9
Dynamo Dresden
10.7
VfL Bochum
10.5
Hannover 96
10.5
SV Darmstadt 98
10.5
Hertha BSC
10.4
1. FC Kaiserslautern
10.3
Eintracht Braunschweig
10.2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10.2
Holstein Kiel
10.1
1. FC Magdeburg
10.0
Arminia Bielefeld
9.9
FC St. Pauli
9.6
1. FC Nürnberg
9.6
Karlsruher SC
9.4
1. FC Heidenheim
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Holstein Kiel
5.4
Eintracht Braunschweig
5.1
1. FC Kaiserslautern
5.0
1. FC Nürnberg
4.9
VfL Bochum
4.9
Hannover 96
4.8
Hertha BSC
4.8
1. FC Magdeburg
4.7
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.6
VfL Osnabrück
4.6
Karlsruher SC
4.6
Dynamo Dresden
4.2
Arminia Bielefeld
4.2
SV Darmstadt 98
4.0
FC St. Pauli
3.7
1. FC Heidenheim
3.7
VfL Wolfsburg
3.6
Energie Cottbus
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Holstein Kiel
26.5
Energie Cottbus
26.3
Hannover 96
26.2
Arminia Bielefeld
25.6
1. FC Kaiserslautern
25.4
VfL Osnabrück
25.2
1. FC Nürnberg
24.9
Eintracht Braunschweig
24.4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
24.3
Hertha BSC
24.1
1. FC Magdeburg
23.7
SV Darmstadt 98
23.6
Karlsruher SC
23.2
Dynamo Dresden
23.1
VfL Bochum
23.0
VfL Wolfsburg
20.7
1. FC Heidenheim
20.5
FC St. Pauli
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
56.2%
@ 1.71+2.2%
Under 9.5
43.8%
@ 2.01-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Under
Unibet
2.08
Betano
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
70.3%
Under 3.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
76.7%
Under 21.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Holstein Kiel or Draw
64.0%
Avg Implied 66.6% · @ 1.40
Edge
-2.6%
38%
27%
35%
covers Holstein Kiel + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
Betfair
1.44
1xBet
1.39
Holstein Kiel or 1. FC Nürnberg
73.7%
Avg Implied 73.5% · @ 1.27
Edge
+0.2%
38%
27%
35%
covers Holstein Kiel + 1. FC Nürnberg
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Draw or 1. FC Nürnberg
62.3%
Avg Implied 59.9% · @ 1.56
Edge
+2.4%
38%
27%
35%
covers Draw + 1. FC Nürnberg
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.62
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5
Over
78.6%
@ 1.18-0.3%
Under
21.4%
@ 4.39+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Under
Pinnacle
5.19
BetVictor
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.30
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5
Over
45.7%
@ 1.92-2.9%
Under
54.3%
@ 1.81+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5
Over
20.2%
@ 3.89-3.7%
Under
79.8%
@ 1.22+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.84
Under
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
Holstein Kiel over/under 3.5
Over
7.1%
@ 8.94-3.3%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.04+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.50
Marathonbet
8.30
1xBet
8.30
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 0.5
Over
77.8%
@ 1.22+1.9%
Under
22.2%
@ 3.85-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.15
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.90
1xBet
3.84
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 1.5
Over
44.4%
@ 2.13+0.6%
Under
55.6%
@ 1.66-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.22
Marathonbet
2.16
Unibet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
Betano
2.15
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 2.5
Over
19.2%
@ 4.62-0.9%
Under
80.8%
@ 1.16+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
5.00
BetVictor
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
1xBet
4.70
Unibet
4.60
Under
Pinnacle
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
Betfair
1.17
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 3.5
Over
6.6%
@ 10.64-2.3%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.04+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Betfair
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Holstein Kiel, so a minus line means Holstein Kiel give that many goals of a start and 1. FC Nürnberg receive them. At -1, Holstein Kiel must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Holstein Kiel win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Holstein Kiel)
Holstein Kiel -2
7.5%
@ 9.65-1.9%
Draw -2
11.5%
@ 6.72-1.9%
1. FC Nürnberg +2
81.0%
@ 1.17+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.10
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.65
Unibet
6.25
Away
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Handicap -1 (Holstein Kiel)
Holstein Kiel -1
19.0%
@ 4.35-1.6%
Draw -1
18.7%
@ 4.18-2.7%
1. FC Nürnberg +1
62.3%
@ 1.54+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.05
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.25
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Away
Marathonbet
1.58
10Bet
1.55
Unibet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Handicap +1 (Holstein Kiel)
Holstein Kiel +1
64.0%
@ 1.42+1.0%
Draw +1
18.2%
@ 4.52-1.5%
1. FC Nürnberg -1
17.8%
@ 5.19+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Draw
Marathonbet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.25
Away
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Unibet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Handicap +2 (Holstein Kiel)
Holstein Kiel +2
82.2%
@ 1.12+2.9%
Draw +2
10.9%
@ 7.16-1.5%
1. FC Nürnberg -2
6.8%
@ 10.79-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
5.15
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
10.50
Marathonbet
6.65
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Holstein Kiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.53
0.60
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.82
0.57
0.64
0.64
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Nürnberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Nürnberg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.50
1.07
0.20
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.61
1.10
0.30
0.77
0.85
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.14
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.0%
@ 1.28+0.4%
Under 0.5
27.0%
@ 3.39-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.40
William Hil
3.40
1xBet
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.6%
@ 2.30-1.9%
Under 1.5
61.4%
@ 1.56+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Pinnacle
2.36
Unibet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.30
1xBet
2.30
Under
Pinnacle
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.7%
@ 5.25-5.9%
Under 2.5
88.3%
@ 1.12+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Betano
5.30
1xBet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.10
Under
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.4%
@ 1.80-3.4%
Under
51.6%
@ 1.93+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Unibet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathonbet
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
2.00
10Bet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.88
Betano
1.88
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.1%
@ 5.16-4.9%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.14+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.15
Betano
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.1%
@ 12.00-5.8%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.02+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.02
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.3%
@ 1.94+0.5%
Under
51.7%
@ 1.78-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.01
Betano
2.00
Marathonbet
1.94
Unibet
1.94
1xBet
1.91
Under
10Bet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.3%
@ 5.74+1.2%
Under
82.7%
@ 1.11-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.10
1xBet
6.00
Betano
5.60
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.3%
@ 14.38-3.3%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Holstein Kiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.80
0.80
0.53
0.67
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.79
0.86
0.57
0.71
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Nürnberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
1. FC Nürnberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.77
1.07
0.67
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.78
1.10
0.60
0.69
0.92
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.71
1.00
0.80
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.8%
@ 1.16-0.9%
Under 0.5
20.2%
@ 4.81+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.85
Betano
4.75
William Hil
4.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.0%
@ 1.79-3.9%
Under 1.5
52.0%
@ 1.94+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.84
William Hil
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
Under
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Bet365
1.91
William Hil
1.91
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.3%
@ 3.37-5.2%
Under 2.5
77.7%
@ 1.28+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
William Hil
3.50
Betano
3.30
Marathonbet
3.28
1xBet
3.28
Under
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
William Hil
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.6%
@ 1.55-7.3%
Under
47.4%
@ 2.31+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Under
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.32
10Bet
2.25
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.5%
@ 3.59-8.3%
Under
82.5%
@ 1.25+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.56
Betano
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.5%
@ 9.33-5.5%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.03+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.0%
@ 1.65-1.2%
Under
45.0%
@ 2.12+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Under
Betano
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.08
1xBet
2.08
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.9%
@ 4.11-1.5%
Under
79.1%
@ 1.19+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.25
1xBet
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Betano
4.00
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
1. FC Nürnberg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.1%
@ 9.62-4.6%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.03+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.1%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.8%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.3%
Under 6.5
96.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+2.4%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
1.03
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+5.5%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
-
-
-
+4.6%
Away under 3.5 goals
93.4%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+2.3%
Home under 3.5 goals
92.9%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+3.3%
Under 5.5
91.1%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Betfair
1.07
Bet365
1.07
BetVictor
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
+2.8%
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.12
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+5.9%
Over 19.5 fouls
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.14
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
-
+4.9%
Over 2.5 cards
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
82.7%
1.11
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
-
-1.2%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.5%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
-
+8.3%
Home +2 handicap
82.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
-
+2.9%
Away +2 handicap
81.0%
1.17
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
-
+3.8%
Away under 2.5 goals
80.8%
1.16
Pinnacle
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+0.9%
Under 4.5
80.7%
1.19
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+2.4%
Home under 2.5 goals
79.8%
1.22
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
+3.7%
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.8%
1.16
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
-0.9%
Over 1.5
79.3%
1.17
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
-0.8%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
79.1%
1.19
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
-
+1.5%
Home over 0.5 goals
78.6%
1.18
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.17
-0.3%
Away over 0.5 goals
77.8%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+1.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.7%
1.28
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
William Hil
1.25
+5.2%
Over 21.5 fouls
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.7%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
+0.2%
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.0%
1.28
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
+0.4%
Over 3.5 cards
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Holstein Kiel
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi50%
Jonas Therkelsen25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kasper Davidsen75%
Ivan Nekić50%
Jonas Therkelsen50%
Hiroki Sekine50%
Timon Weiner33%
Leon Parduzi33%
Jonas Meffert25%
Guillermo Balzi25%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Phil Harres0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Phil Harres50%
Adrián Kaprálik50%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Guillermo Balzi0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
1. FC Nürnberg
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mohamed Ali Zoma50%
Piet Scobel50%
Julian Justvan25%
Tim Janisch25%
Adam Markhiev25%
Rayan Ghrieb0%
Finn Ole Becker0%
Jan Reichert0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Giannis Masouras0%
Fynn Otto0%
Alexios Kalogeropoulos0%
Rafael Lubach0%
Eric Porstner0%
Javier Fernandez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Javier Fernandez50%
Rayan Ghrieb33%
Julian Justvan25%
Mohamed Ali Zoma25%
Adam Markhiev25%
Eric Porstner25%
Finn Ole Becker0%
Jan Reichert0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Giannis Masouras0%
Fynn Otto0%
Alexios Kalogeropoulos0%
Rafael Lubach0%
Tim Janisch0%
Piet Scobel0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Finn Ole Becker67%
Fynn Otto33%
Julian Justvan25%
Adam Markhiev25%
Eric Porstner25%
Piet Scobel25%
Rayan Ghrieb0%
Jan Reichert0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Giannis Masouras0%
Alexios Kalogeropoulos0%
Mohamed Ali Zoma0%
Rafael Lubach0%
Tim Janisch0%
Javier Fernandez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Piet Scobel50%
Julian Justvan25%
Mohamed Ali Zoma25%
Rayan Ghrieb0%
Finn Ole Becker0%
Jan Reichert0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Giannis Masouras0%
Fynn Otto0%
Alexios Kalogeropoulos0%
Rafael Lubach0%
Tim Janisch0%
Adam Markhiev0%
Eric Porstner0%
Javier Fernandez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (33)
€154m
FSP (27)
€46m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
H9 (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
1FK (26)
€28m
HB (24)
€25m
SD9 (28)
€24m
1FM (26)
€21m
EB (27)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
EC (26)
€11m
VO (25)
€10m
Holstein Kiel's squad is €6m less valuable than 1. FC Nürnberg's (€34m vs €40m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (10)
€56m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
1FK (9)
€12m
1FM (9)
€10m
FSP (7)
€10m
H9 (9)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
HB (8)
€8m
EB (8)
€7m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
VO (9)
€5m
EC (10)
€4m
SGF (6)
€4m
Holstein Kiel's attack is €2m less valuable than 1. FC Nürnberg's (€12m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (8)
€32m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
H9 (8)
€11m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
1FK (6)
€5m
EB (7)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
KS (6)
€4m
1FM (4)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
HB (6)
€3m
VO (7)
€3m
EC (4)
€2m
Holstein Kiel's midfield is €7m less valuable than 1. FC Nürnberg's (€7m vs €13m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VW (15)
€66m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
HB (10)
€13m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
H9 (9)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
1FK (11)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
EB (12)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
1FM (13)
€7m
EC (12)
€5m
VO (9)
€3m
Holstein Kiel's defence is €4m more valuable than 1. FC Nürnberg's (€16m vs €12m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hertha BSC
VfL Wolfsburg
1. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Magdeburg
1. FC Kaiserslautern
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Karlsruher SC
Eintracht Braunschweig
Arminia Bielefeld
VfL Bochum
Energie Cottbus
Hannover 96
VfL Osnabrück
Dynamo Dresden
FC St. Pauli
SV Darmstadt 98