Holywell’s recent five matches have yielded no wins, yet their average of 3.12 goals scored at home suggests they still possess a potent attack, though they concede 1.75 goals to similar opponents. Caernarfon Town, on the other hand, has won four of their last five away games, averaging 1.73 goals scored and only 0.82 conceded against comparable opposition. The model predicts an away win with a 57% probability, a draw 22% and a home win 21%. The expected total goals is 3.5, with the most likely total of three goals at 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 for Caernarfon Town, carrying a 9.5% probability. The model’s selections include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.4% with a 7% edge, Under 7.5 at 97.3% with a 5% edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.7% with a 2% edge, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 94.1% with a 4% edge, Under 6.5 at 93.4% with a 4% edge, Away +2 handicap at 91.0%, and Away under 2.5 HT goals at 90.7% with a 5% edge.
Results analysis
The match finished 3-5, confirming the model’s pick of an away win and a total well above the expected 3.5 goals. Holywell’s five-game losing streak ended in defeat, while Caernarfon Town extended their three-game winning run. The pre-match favourite was the away side, with a 57% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The suggested selections performed as follows: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.8%; Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.4%; Under 7.5 missed at 97.3%; Home under 3.5 goals hit at 95.7%; Home under 1.5 HT goals hit at 94.1%; Under 6.5 missed at 93.4%; Away +2 handicap hit at 91.0%; and Away under 2.5 HT goals missed at 90.7%. The final score matched the model’s prediction of an away victory, underscoring the accuracy of the forecast.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Holywell win✗ Miss
21.0%
Avg Implied 11.0% · @ 8.22
Edge
+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
9.50
Dafabet
9.20
1xBet
9.15
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.90
Draw✗ Miss
21.9%
Avg Implied 16.8% · @ 5.38
Edge
+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
6.20
Pinnacle
5.89
Superbet
5.80
William Hil
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Caernarfon Town win✓ Hit
57.1%
Avg Implied 72.3% · @ 1.25
Edge
-15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.29
SBO
1.28
Unibet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Holywell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
1.80
3.00
1.47
1.60
2.13
vs Stronger (11)
2.55
1.36
3.17
0.83
1.80
2.00
vs Similar (15)
2.60
2.13
3.57
1.86
1.75
2.38
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.75
0.50
2.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Caernarfon Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.17
2.13
1.40
1.60
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.67
0.00
4.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
2.04
1.04
2.29
1.21
1.73
0.82
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
-
-
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.4%
@ 1.10+5.0%
Under 1.5
12.6%
@ 5.16-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Under
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.15
Betano
4.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.1%
@ 1.39+2.6%
Under 2.5
31.9%
@ 2.64-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.41
Superbet
1.41
Under
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.88
Unibet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.72
Bet365
2.62
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.5%
@ 2.03+1.1%
Under 3.5
53.5%
@ 1.69-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
SBO
2.07
Under
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
SBO
1.71
Betano
1.70
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.6%
@ 1.75+13.4%
No
34.4%
@ 1.91-13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
William Hil
1.80
Betfair
1.80
No
Unibet
2.08
10Bet
2.05
Betfair
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Betano
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.5%@ 7.96+3.9%
1-1
9.5%@ 10.29+5.1%
0-2
7.3%@ 7.04+0.9%
1-3
7.0%@ 9.21+2.1%
2-2
6.2%@ 17.17+3.6%
0-1
5.8%@ 8.85+0.7%
2-1
5.6%@ 22.90+3.6%
0-3
5.4%@ 7.90-0.3%
Holywell goals ↓
Caernarfon Town goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
5.8%
7.3%
5.4%
3.0%
1
3.0%
9.5%
9.5%
7.0%
3.9%
2
2.5%
5.6%
6.2%
4.5%
2.5%
3
1.1%
2.4%
2.7%
2.0%
1.1%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.9%
0.6%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Holywell goals (down), columns = Caernarfon Town goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Holywell is 2.00 points worse than Caernarfon Town in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Holywell is 1.00 goals worse than Caernarfon Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Holywell is 2.83 goals worse than Caernarfon Town in terms of goals conceded per game (4.33 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Holywell or Draw✗ Miss
42.9%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.31
Edge
+15.0%
21%
22%
57%
covers Holywell + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.75
Betano
3.55
William Hil
3.40
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.38
Holywell or Caernarfon Town✓ Hit
78.1%
Avg Implied 84.0% · @ 1.10
Edge
-5.8%
21%
22%
57%
covers Holywell + Caernarfon Town
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Draw or Caernarfon Town✓ Hit
79.0%
Avg Implied 88.1% · @ 1.05
Edge
-9.2%
21%
22%
57%
covers Draw + Caernarfon Town
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Holywell over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.8%
@ 1.64+16.5%
Under
27.2%
@ 2.11-16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Superbet
1.70
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Under
10Bet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Unibet
2.20
Betano
2.10
Pinnacle
2.03
Holywell over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
37.4%
@ 4.03+14.5%
Under
62.6%
@ 1.19-14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.30
Superbet
4.15
Betano
4.05
Bet365
3.75
Under
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Holywell over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
14.3%
@ 9.71+4.7%
Under
85.7%
@ 1.03-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Superbet
10.00
Marathonbet
9.80
Betano
9.25
Bet365
8.50
Under
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Holywell over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 14.75-2.1%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.01+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
89.0%
@ 1.04-0.9%
Under
11.0%
@ 9.23+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Under
1xBet
11.00
Bet365
9.00
Betano
7.70
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
64.7%
@ 1.28-7.0%
Under
35.3%
@ 3.25+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.25
Betano
3.20
Marathonbet
3.14
Superbet
3.10
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
37.9%
@ 1.90-10.7%
Under
62.1%
@ 1.80+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.97
Betano
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Under
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Caernarfon Town over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
18.2%
@ 3.19-10.7%
Under
81.8%
@ 1.30+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.30
Marathonbet
3.28
1xBet
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Bet365
3.00
Under
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Holywell, so a minus line means Holywell give that many goals of a start and Caernarfon Town receive them. At -1, Holywell must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Holywell win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Holywell)Actual: Caernarfon Town
Holywell -2
3.0%
Draw -2
6.0%
Caernarfon Town +2
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Holywell)Actual: Caernarfon Town
Holywell -1
9.0%
@ 19.00+4.1%
Draw -1
12.1%
@ 11.00+3.7%
Caernarfon Town +1
79.0%
@ 1.06-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
19.00
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Away
Bet365
1.06
Handicap +1 (Holywell)Actual: Caernarfon Town
Holywell +1
42.9%
@ 3.19+15.2%
Draw +1
21.0%
@ 4.04-0.8%
Caernarfon Town -1
36.1%
@ 1.75-14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
3.38
Bet365
3.00
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
3.74
Away
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.70
Handicap +2 (Holywell)Actual: Draw
Holywell +2
63.9%
@ 1.92+18.5%
Draw +2
17.3%
@ 3.93-4.8%
Caernarfon Town -2
18.7%
@ 2.69-13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Bet365
1.91
Unibet
1.79
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
Unibet
3.35
Away
10Bet
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.70
Marathonbet
2.66
Unibet
2.55
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Holywell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.73
1.80
0.60
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
0.36
1.83
0.00
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (15)
1.53
1.07
2.29
1.00
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Caernarfon Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
1.07
0.67
0.53
0.40
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.52
1.14
0.57
0.45
0.45
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.9%
@ 1.20-0.2%
Under 0.5
24.1%
@ 3.80+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.00
William Hil
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
3.80
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.7%
@ 2.01+2.9%
Under 1.5
51.3%
@ 1.69-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.07
Pinnacle
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Under
10Bet
1.75
William Hil
1.73
Bet365
1.73
SBO
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
15.4%
@ 4.06-7.0%
Under 2.5
84.6%
@ 1.17+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
William Hil
4.40
Betano
4.25
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.15
Under
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Holywell over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
34.5%
@ 2.87+2.5%
Under
65.5%
@ 1.35-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.93
Betano
2.87
1xBet
2.85
Superbet
2.82
Under
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Holywell over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.9%
@ 9.75-3.6%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.03+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Holywell over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
63.0%
@ 1.40-3.4%
Under
37.0%
@ 2.75+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.37
Under
1xBet
2.85
Betano
2.65
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
26.1%
@ 2.73-7.7%
Under
73.9%
@ 1.39+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.85
Marathonbet
2.78
1xBet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.70
Superbet
2.57
Under
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
9.3%
@ 6.60-4.8%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.08+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.07
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Holywell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.07
1.20
0.87
0.93
1.27
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
1.00
1.33
0.83
1.20
1.20
vs Similar (15)
1.07
1.07
1.29
0.86
0.88
1.25
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Caernarfon Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.63
1.07
0.73
1.07
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.20
0.52
1.14
0.64
1.27
0.36
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
85.7%
@ 1.12+3.5%
Under 0.5
14.3%
@ 5.15-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Under
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.15
Marathonbet
5.10
Betano
5.00
Superbet
4.85
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
51.3%
@ 1.65-5.1%
Under 1.5
48.7%
@ 2.13+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.75
Marathonbet
1.66
Superbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Betano
1.62
Under
10Bet
2.25
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
24.6%
@ 2.92-6.7%
Under 2.5
75.4%
@ 1.34+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.30
Marathonbet
2.92
Superbet
2.90
1xBet
2.88
Betano
2.80
Under
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Holywell over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
49.8%
@ 2.40+11.5%
Under
50.2%
@ 1.49-11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.48
Superbet
2.40
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.36
Under
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Superbet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.45
Holywell over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
11.0%
@ 8.20-0.2%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.04+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.90
1xBet
8.80
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Holywell over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 11.25-6.6%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.01
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
69.2%
@ 1.25-4.9%
Under
30.8%
@ 3.58+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Under
1xBet
3.60
Betano
3.55
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
28.5%
@ 2.13-14.8%
Under
71.5%
@ 1.62+14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.14
Superbet
2.12
Betano
2.10
Under
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 4.45-9.9%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.17+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.70
Betano
4.20
Under
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.15
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.3%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+5.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
95.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
94.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
93.4%
1.05
1xBet
1.06
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
+4.5%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
90.7%
1.08
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
+4.8%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 2H goals
89.1%
1.17
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.15
-
-
-
+9.9%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
89.0%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.0%
1.04
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-
+0.2%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
87.4%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
85.7%
1.12
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-4.7%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
85.6%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
+2.0%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.6%
1.17
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
+7.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
81.8%
1.30
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
+10.7%
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
79.0%
1.05
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-9.2%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
79.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-7.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
78.1%
1.10
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.09
-5.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.9%
1.20
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.4%
1.34
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
+6.7%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
73.9%
1.39
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
+7.7%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
72.8%
1.64
Pinnacle
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Superbet
1.70
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
+16.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
72.4%
1.27
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+0.8%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
71.5%
1.62
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
-
+14.8%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Holywell's squad is €1m less valuable than Caernarfon Town's (€0m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Holywell and Caernarfon Town have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Holywell and Caernarfon Town have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Holywell and Caernarfon Town have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Cardiff MET
Llandudno
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Briton Ferry
Haverfordwest County AFC
Ammanford AFC
Flint Town United
Trefelin