Holywell’s recent five matches have ended in loss after loss, and they finished 3-5 at home to Caernarfon Town, while Colwyn Bay has returned from a 1-5 defeat away to The New Saints. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an average of 3.7 goals, and the most likely total is three goals, a 21% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.4% probability. The model favours an away win, with a 42% chance of Colwyn Bay taking the points, a 34% chance of Holywell winning, and a 23% chance of a draw. Holywell, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.86 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, whereas Colwyn Bay, on the road, averages 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 96.6%, Under 6.5 at 92.0%, Home under 3.5 goals at 90.0%, Over 1.5 at 89.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 86.9%, Away over 0.5 goals at 85.6%, Under 5.5 at 83.3%, and Home over 0.5 goals at 82.5%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Holywell win
31.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay win
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Holywell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
3.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
2.00
2.79
1.57
1.62
2.38
vs Stronger (11)
2.55
1.36
3.17
0.83
1.80
2.00
vs Similar (15)
2.27
2.20
2.86
2.00
1.75
2.38
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
3.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colwyn Bay
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.43
2.00
1.36
1.19
1.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.68
1.50
2.30
1.70
1.17
1.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
1.67
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.1%
Under 1.5
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
71.2%
Under 2.5
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
50.3%
Under 3.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
71.2%
No
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.3%
1-2
8.5%
2-2
7.1%
2-1
7.1%
1-3
5.7%
0-2
5.1%
2-3
4.8%
0-1
4.2%
Holywell goals ↓
Colwyn Bay goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
4.2%
5.1%
3.4%
1.7%
1
3.4%
9.3%
8.5%
5.7%
2.9%
2
3.5%
7.1%
7.1%
4.8%
2.4%
3
2.0%
4.0%
4.0%
2.7%
1.3%
4
0.8%
1.7%
1.7%
1.1%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Holywell goals (down), columns = Colwyn Bay goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Holywell is 1.67 points worse than Colwyn Bay in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Holywell is 0.17 goals better than Colwyn Bay in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Holywell is 2.67 goals worse than Colwyn Bay in terms of goals conceded per game (4.33 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Holywell or Draw
54.9%
Avg Implied -
32%
23%
45%
covers Holywell + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Holywell or Colwyn Bay
76.9%
Avg Implied -
32%
23%
45%
covers Holywell + Colwyn Bay
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Colwyn Bay
68.2%
Avg Implied -
32%
23%
45%
covers Draw + Colwyn Bay
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Holywell over/under 0.5
Over
81.3%
Under
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 1.5
Over
49.9%
Under
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 2.5
Over
23.6%
Under
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 3.5
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5
Over
86.6%
Under
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5
Over
59.6%
Under
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5
Over
32.6%
Under
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 3.5
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Holywell, so a minus line means Holywell give that many goals of a start and Colwyn Bay receive them. At -1, Holywell must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Holywell win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Holywell)
Holywell -2
6.5%
Draw -2
9.6%
Colwyn Bay +2
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Holywell)
Holywell -1
16.1%
Draw -1
15.7%
Colwyn Bay +1
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Holywell)
Holywell +1
54.9%
Draw +1
19.0%
Colwyn Bay -1
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Holywell)
Holywell +2
73.9%
Draw +2
13.8%
Colwyn Bay -2
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Holywell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.87
1.50
0.71
0.69
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
0.36
1.83
0.00
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.20
1.43
1.29
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colwyn Bay
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
1.14
0.50
0.69
0.56
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.55
1.20
0.70
0.58
0.42
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.00
1.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Holywell over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Holywell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.13
1.29
0.86
0.94
1.38
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
1.00
1.33
0.83
1.20
1.20
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.00
1.43
0.71
0.88
1.25
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colwyn Bay
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.86
0.86
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.95
1.10
1.00
0.58
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.50
0.33
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Holywell over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Holywell's squad is €1m less valuable than Colwyn Bay's (€0m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Holywell and Colwyn Bay have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Holywell and Colwyn Bay have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Holywell and Colwyn Bay have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Cardiff MET
Caernarfon Town
Llandudno
Penybont
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Briton Ferry
Haverfordwest County AFC
Ammanford AFC
Flint Town United
Trefelin