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Holywell vs Trefelin Prediction & Stats

Date: 04/09/2026
Time: 18:45
Holywell
Holywell
Vs
36%
22%
42%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Trefelin
Trefelin
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Holywell’s recent five matches have been a string of defeats, and their home form shows a stark weakness: they average zero goals scored and concede three per game against weaker opposition. Trefelin, meanwhile, has been more productive on the road, scoring 2.42 goals and conceding only 1.33 against stronger opponents. The model therefore picks an away win with a 42% probability, a draw at 22% and a home win at 36%. The expected total is 4.1 goals, with the most likely total being 6+ at 23%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 7.6% chance. The model’s edge is strongest on the away under 2.5 2H goals selection, which carries a 98.3% probability and a 10% edge. Other suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.0%), Under 7.5 (94.3%), Over 1.5 (92.3%), Away under 1.5 HT goals (89.1%), Away under 1.5 2H goals (88.8%) and Away over 0.5 goals (88.2%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Holywell win
35.8%
Avg Implied 33.3% · @ 2.71
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.93
10Bet
2.90
Dafabet
2.90
Pinnacle
2.76
Betfair
2.75
Draw
21.7%
Avg Implied 25.4% · @ 3.55
Edge
-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Pinnacle
3.63
Betano
3.60
Trefelin win
42.5%
Avg Implied 41.3% · @ 2.19
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.47
Pinnacle
2.27
William Hil
2.25
Dafabet
2.24
Betano
2.22

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

HolywellHolywell

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W03L60W02L16L13L13L13L35L26LA·PEN28/03H·AIR03/04H·NEW08/04A·BRI18/04A·CAR01/08H·GAP07/08A·LLA14/08H·BAR21/08H·CAE28/08A·AIR31/08← FAW ChampionshipPremier League →
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
3.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.172.002.791.571.622.38
vs Stronger (11)2.551.363.170.831.802.00
vs Similar (15)2.272.202.862.001.752.38
vs Weaker (4)0.753.000.003.001.003.00
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TrefelinTrefelin

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-831W81W60W50W02L04L06L02L11D12LA·PON27/03A·CWM30/03H·TRE03/04A·NEW18/04A·COL31/07H·LLA07/08A·GAP14/08H·CAE21/08H·AMM28/08A·HAV31/08← FAW ChampionshipPremier League →
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.471.072.291.142.621.00
vs Stronger (22)2.551.052.700.702.421.33
vs Similar (8)2.251.121.252.253.250.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%2%05%115%219%320%416%523%6+
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
92.3%
@ 1.14+12.2%
Under 1.5
7.7%
@ 4.56-12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.65
1xBet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
77.6%
@ 1.51+17.0%
Under 2.5
22.4%
@ 2.32-17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Under
Superbet
2.45
Betfair
2.40
Pinnacle
2.39
Bet365
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
58.6%
@ 2.26+17.9%
Under 3.5
41.4%
@ 1.55-17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Betano
2.37
Pinnacle
2.32
1xBet
2.29
Under
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.59
Betfair
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
1xBet
1.55
Both teams to score
Yes
76.5%
@ 1.44+13.4%
No
23.5%
@ 2.47-13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
No
Betfair
2.63
Superbet
2.57
1xBet
2.53
Marathonbet
2.50
Bet365
2.50

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
7.6%@ 6.94+1.2%
1-2
7.4%@ 8.21+2.0%
2-2
7.3%@ 10.37+3.0%
2-1
6.8%@ 9.59+2.2%
1-3
5.3%@ 13.58+2.0%
2-3
5.2%@ 17.83+2.7%
3-2
4.8%@ 20.67+2.6%
3-1
4.5%@ 18.68+2.1%
Holywell goals ↓
Trefelin goals →
01234
02.4%2.8%3.8%2.7%1.4%
12.6%7.6%7.4%5.3%2.8%
23.2%6.8%7.3%5.2%2.8%
32.1%4.5%4.8%3.4%1.8%
41.0%2.2%2.3%1.7%0.9%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Holywell goals (down), columns = Trefelin goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Holywell is 0.17 points worse than Trefelin in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 0.17).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Holywell is 1.17 goals better than Trefelin in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Holywell is 1.50 goals worse than Trefelin in terms of goals conceded per game (4.33 vs 2.83).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Holywell or Draw
57.5%
Avg Implied 57.9% · @ 1.57
Edge
-0.4%
36%
22%
42%
covers Holywell + Draw
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.65
Betano
1.65
Betfair
1.62
10Bet
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Holywell or Trefelin
78.3%
Avg Implied 75.8% · @ 1.20
Edge
+2.5%
36%
22%
42%
covers Holywell + Trefelin
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Draw or Trefelin
64.2%
Avg Implied 66.3% · @ 1.38
Edge
-2.1%
36%
22%
42%
covers Draw + Trefelin
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.49
Betano
1.45
William Hil
1.44
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Holywell over/under 0.5
Over
86.0%
@ 1.22+10.9%
Under
14.0%
@ 3.68-10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Under
Superbet
4.10
Betfair
3.75
Betano
3.70
1xBet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.56
Holywell over/under 1.5
Over
58.4%
@ 2.10+14.2%
Under
41.6%
@ 1.66-14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.25
10Bet
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Betano
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Under
Superbet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Holywell over/under 2.5
Over
31.3%
@ 4.30+9.9%
Under
68.7%
@ 1.17-9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Betano
4.35
Under
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Holywell over/under 3.5
Over
13.6%
@ 8.55+2.7%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.05-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.00
Betano
8.50
1xBet
6.70
Under
1xBet
1.07
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Trefelin over/under 0.5
Over
88.2%
@ 1.16+8.7%
Under
11.8%
@ 4.49-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Under
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.70
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.25
Trefelin over/under 1.5
Over
63.0%
@ 1.83+12.4%
Under
37.0%
@ 1.87-12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.92
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Under
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Trefelin over/under 2.5
Over
36.1%
@ 3.51+9.9%
Under
63.9%
@ 1.25-9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.60
Betano
3.60
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Under
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Trefelin over/under 3.5
Over
16.9%
@ 7.25+4.0%
Under
83.1%
@ 1.07-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Betano
7.10
1xBet
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Holywell, so a minus line means Holywell give that many goals of a start and Trefelin receive them. At -1, Holywell must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Holywell win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Holywell)
Holywell -2
8.8%
@ 9.18-0.6%
Draw -2
10.8%
@ 6.70-2.1%
Trefelin +2
80.4%
@ 1.10+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
12.00
Marathonbet
6.35
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Marathonbet
4.90
Away
Marathonbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Handicap -1 (Holywell)
Holywell -1
19.6%
@ 5.22+2.7%
Draw -1
16.2%
@ 4.71-2.4%
Trefelin +1
64.2%
@ 1.36-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
5.75
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.15
Betfair
4.50
Draw
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Away
Betfair
1.44
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Bet365
1.30
Handicap +1 (Holywell)
Holywell +1
57.5%
@ 1.60+2.6%
Draw +1
17.7%
@ 4.08-3.8%
Trefelin -1
24.7%
@ 3.73+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.55
Draw
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Away
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.60
Handicap +2 (Holywell)
Holywell +2
75.3%
@ 1.22+2.2%
Draw +2
12.8%
@ 6.08-1.8%
Trefelin -2
12.0%
@ 7.20-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.18
Draw
Marathonbet
6.15
Bet365
6.00
Away
Marathonbet
7.40
Bet365
7.00

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

HolywellHolywell

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W01L50W00D03L13L11D11D13L13LA·PEN28/03H·AIR03/04H·NEW08/04A·BRI18/04A·CAR01/08H·GAP07/08A·LLA14/08H·BAR21/08H·CAE28/08A·AIR31/08← FAW ChampionshipPremier League →
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.871.500.710.691.00
vs Stronger (11)1.270.361.830.000.600.80
vs Similar (15)1.131.201.431.290.881.12
vs Weaker (4)0.251.000.001.000.331.00
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TrefelinTrefelin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W21W30W30W02L04L02L02L01L00DA·PON27/03A·CWM30/03H·TRE03/04A·NEW18/04A·COL31/07H·LLA07/08A·GAP14/08H·CAE21/08H·AMM28/08A·HAV31/08← FAW ChampionshipPremier League →
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.631.070.861.000.44
vs Stronger (22)1.090.591.400.600.830.58
vs Similar (8)0.880.750.251.501.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.9%
@ 1.24+1.6%
Under 0.5
25.1%
@ 3.40-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
William Hil
3.60
10Bet
3.45
Superbet
3.45
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.3%
@ 2.19-4.7%
Under 1.5
62.7%
@ 1.58+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.25
William Hil
2.25
Marathonbet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Under
Superbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
William Hil
1.60
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.3%
@ 4.56-6.6%
Under 2.5
86.7%
@ 1.14+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Betano
4.80
1xBet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.65
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.14

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Holywell over/under 0.5 HT
Over
57.8%
@ 1.89+8.9%
Under
42.2%
@ 1.81-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathonbet
1.88
Superbet
1.78
Under
Superbet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Betano
1.75
Holywell over/under 1.5 HT
Over
20.8%
@ 5.57+4.3%
Under
79.2%
@ 1.10-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.60
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Holywell over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.2%
@ 10.50-2.6%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.02+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Trefelin over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.4%
@ 1.77-13.0%
Under
60.6%
@ 1.95+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Superbet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.70
Under
1xBet
2.03
Pinnacle
1.97
Marathonbet
1.94
Betano
1.90
Superbet
1.90
Trefelin over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.9%
@ 4.58-12.2%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.16+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.70
Betano
4.65
1xBet
4.40
Under
1xBet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
Trefelin over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
@ 9.50-8.4%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.03+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.03

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

HolywellHolywell

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L10W02L13L00D02L02L22D13LA·PEN28/03H·AIR03/04H·NEW08/04A·BRI18/04A·CAR01/08H·GAP07/08A·LLA14/08H·BAR21/08H·CAE28/08A·AIR31/08← FAW ChampionshipPremier League →
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.131.290.860.941.38
vs Stronger (11)1.271.001.330.831.201.20
vs Similar (15)1.131.001.430.710.881.25
vs Weaker (4)0.502.000.002.000.672.00
Clean sheet %37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TrefelinTrefelin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W60W30W20W00D00D04L00D10W12LA·PON27/03A·CWM30/03H·TRE03/04A·NEW18/04A·COL31/07H·LLA07/08A·GAP14/08H·CAE21/08H·AMM28/08A·HAV31/08← FAW ChampionshipPremier League →
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.431.210.291.620.56
vs Stronger (22)1.450.451.300.101.580.75
vs Similar (8)1.380.381.000.751.750.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.7%
@ 1.14+2.8%
Under 0.5
16.3%
@ 4.81-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Under
Bet365
5.50
William Hil
4.80
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.65
1xBet
4.65
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.4%
@ 1.74+0.1%
Under 1.5
46.6%
@ 1.98-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Under
Superbet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Betano
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.3%
@ 3.19-5.5%
Under 2.5
76.7%
@ 1.29+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.30
Bet365
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Under
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.26

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Holywell over/under 0.5 2H
Over
69.8%
@ 1.62+12.9%
Under
30.2%
@ 2.14-12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.54
Under
Superbet
2.27
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.04
Holywell over/under 1.5 2H
Over
34.5%
@ 4.07+11.8%
Under
65.5%
@ 1.19-11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Betano
3.85
Under
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Holywell over/under 2.5 2H
Over
12.2%
@ 8.90+1.8%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.03-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.30
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Trefelin over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.5%
@ 1.53-18.0%
Under
57.5%
@ 2.34+18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.56
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.49
Under
1xBet
2.44
Betano
2.35
Superbet
2.22
Trefelin over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.1%
@ 3.38-14.2%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.27+14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.48
Betano
3.35
1xBet
3.30
Under
1xBet
1.29
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.24
Trefelin over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.3%
@ 8.25-9.9%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.04+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.10
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.03

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Away under 2.5 2H goals98.7%1.04
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.03
---+9.9%
Away under 2.5 HT goals98.6%1.03
Betano
1.03
----+8.4%
Under 7.594.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01
----+0.2%
Home under 2.5 HT goals93.8%1.02
Betano
1.02
----+2.6%
Over 1.592.3%1.14
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
+12.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals92.1%1.16
1xBet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
--+12.2%
Away over 0.5 goals88.2%1.16
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
+8.7%
Under 6.587.8%1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.02
---2.8%
Home under 2.5 2H goals87.8%1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
----1.8%
Away under 1.5 2H goals86.9%1.27
1xBet
1.29
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.24
--+14.2%
Under 2.5 HT goals86.7%1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.14
+6.6%
Home under 3.5 goals86.4%1.05
1xBet
1.07
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
--2.7%
Home over 0.5 goals86.0%1.22
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
+10.9%
Over 0.5 2H goals83.7%1.14
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
+2.8%
Away under 3.5 goals83.1%1.07
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
--4.0%
Away +2 handicap80.4%1.10
Marathonbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
---+2.6%
Home under 1.5 HT goals79.2%1.10
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
---4.3%
Home or Away78.3%1.20
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+2.5%
Over 2.577.6%1.51
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Betfair
1.50
+17.0%
Under 5.576.9%1.06
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.09
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
-8.8%
Under 2.5 2H goals76.7%1.29
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.26
+5.5%
BTTS Yes76.5%1.44
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
+13.4%
Home +2 handicap75.3%1.22
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.18
---+2.2%
Over 0.5 HT goals74.9%1.24
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+1.6%

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Holywell and Trefelin have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Holywell and Trefelin have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Holywell and Trefelin have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Holywell and Trefelin have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
HOL wins
0
Draws
0
TRE wins

Head-to-head

Holywell vs Trefelin · H/A from HOL
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

HolywellHolywell

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/26AAirbus UK Vs HOL6-2
28/08/26HHOL Vs Caernarfon Town3-5
21/08/26HHOL Vs Barry Town1-3
14/08/26ALlandudno Vs HOL3-1
07/08/26HHOL Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC1-3
01/08/26ACardiff MET Vs HOL6-1
18/04/26ABrickfield Rangers Vs HOL2-0
08/04/26HHOL Vs Newtown AFC6-0
03/04/26HHOL Vs Airbus UK0-3
28/03/26APenrhyncoch Vs HOL0-1

TrefelinTrefelin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/26AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs TRE2-1
28/08/26HTRE Vs Ammanford AFC1-1
21/08/26HTRE Vs Caernarfon Town0-2
14/08/26AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs TRE6-0
07/08/26HTRE Vs Llandudno0-4
31/07/26AColwyn Bay Vs TRE2-0
18/04/26ANewport City Vs TRE0-5
03/04/26HTRE Vs Treowen Stars6-0
30/03/26ACwmbran Celtic Vs TRE1-8
27/03/26APontypridd Town Vs TRE1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Holywell
Holywell
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.66
HomeLWLLL2.00
AwayWLLLL1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%62%38%
AVG goals3.764.043.50
Over 1.5 %86%88%85%
Over 2.5 %68%67%69%
Over 3.5 %46%54%38%
Scored2.102.671.58
Conceded1.661.381.92
BTTS64%62%65%
Clean Sheet24%25%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Trefelin
Trefelin
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDL2.08
HomeLWLLD1.96
AwayWWLLL2.19
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %64%58%69%
AVG goals3.303.213.38
Over 1.5 %92%92%92%
Over 2.5 %60%58%62%
Over 3.5 %44%46%42%
Scored2.242.082.38
Conceded1.061.121.00
BTTS40%33%46%
Clean Sheet44%50%38%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Barry TownBarry Town618
100%
3.0
177+10
4.0
83%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.81.2
-
2The New SaintsThe New Saints616
83%
2.7
163+13
3.2
67%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.70.5
-
3GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC615
83%
2.5
174+13
3.5
100%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.80.7
-
4Cardiff METCardiff MET612
67%
2.0
167+9
3.8
83%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.71.2
-
5Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town612
67%
2.0
159+6
4.0
100%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.51.5
-
6LlandudnoLlandudno612
67%
2.0
137+6
3.3
100%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.2
-
7PenybontPenybont612
50%
2.0
105+5
2.5
83%
67%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.70.8
-
8Colwyn BayColwyn Bay610
50%
1.7
810-2
3.0
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.7
-
9Airbus UKAirbus UK69
50%
1.5
119+2
3.3
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.5
-
10Cambrian & ClydachCambrian & Clydach68
33%
1.3
88+0
2.7
83%
67%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
11Briton FerryBriton Ferry67
33%
1.2
510-5
2.5
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.81.7
-
12Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC63
17%
0.5
212-10
2.3
83%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.32.0
-
13Ammanford AFCAmmanford AFC62
0%
0.3
414-10
3.0
100%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.3
-
14Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United61
0%
0.2
611-5
2.8
67%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.8
-
15TrefelinTrefelin61
0%
0.2
217-15
3.2
100%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.32.8
-
16HolywellHolywell60
0%
0.0
926-17
5.8
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.54.3
-
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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