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IA Akranes vs KR Reykjavik Result & Analysis

Date: 27/09/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 3-2
IA Akranes
IA Akranes
Vs
48%
24%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
KR Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

IA Akranes win✓ Hit
48.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik win✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

IA AkranesIA Akranes

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W02L22D23L01L02L30W31W40WH·FRA05/07H·KR 14/07A·KA 19/07H·VAL05/08A·FH 11/08H·VIK17/08A·IBV31/08H·BRE11/09H·AFT15/09A·VES20/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.801.271.331.932.27
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.001.001.002.00
vs Similar (27)1.591.851.361.361.852.38
vs Weaker (1)4.001.00--4.001.00
Clean sheet %23% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KR ReykjavikKR Reykjavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-712L01L11D12L21W10W12L11D07L24LH·KA 06/07A·IA 14/07H·BRE26/07A·IBV02/08H·AFT11/08A·FRA18/08H·STJ25/08A·VES31/08H·VIK14/09A·KA 21/09
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.572.233.132.072.002.40
vs Stronger (2)1.005.000.007.002.003.00
vs Similar (27)2.562.073.361.711.692.46
vs Weaker (1)6.001.00--6.001.00
Clean sheet %10% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (IA Akranes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.8%
Under 1.5
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.0%
Under 2.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.3%
Under 3.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.4%
No
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
6.0%
1-0
5.3%
3-2 ✓
4.4%
IA Akranes goals ↓
KR Reykjavik goals →
01234
04.1%3.8%3.5%1.7%0.6%
15.3%10%6.9%3.4%1.3%
26.2%9.1%6.7%3.3%1.2%
34.0%6.0%4.4%2.2%0.8%
42.0%2.9%2.2%1.1%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IA Akranes goals (down), columns = KR Reykjavik goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.11
Valur Reykjavik
1.67
Stjarnan
1.56
Breidablik
1.56
KA Akureyri
1.44
Fram Reykjavik
1.33
IA Akranes
1.26
FH hafnarfjordur
1.22
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.22
KR Reykjavik
1.15
Vestri
1.07
Afturelding
1.00
IA Akranes is 0.11 points better than KR Reykjavik in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.15).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Valur Reykjavik
2.26
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.15
KR Reykjavik
2.04
Stjarnan
1.85
FH hafnarfjordur
1.81
Breidablik
1.70
KA Akureyri
1.67
Fram Reykjavik
1.52
IA Akranes
1.37
Afturelding
1.33
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.26
Vestri
0.96
IA Akranes is 0.67 goals worse than KR Reykjavik in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 2.04).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.15
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.37
Fram Reykjavik
1.48
Breidablik
1.56
Vestri
1.63
Stjarnan
1.67
Valur Reykjavik
1.70
FH hafnarfjordur
1.70
Afturelding
1.70
KA Akureyri
1.81
IA Akranes
1.85
KR Reykjavik
2.30
IA Akranes is 0.44 goals better than KR Reykjavik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.85 vs 2.30).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

IA AkranesIA Akranes

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D01L02L21W00D00D20W10W00DH·FRA05/07H·KR 14/07A·KA 19/07H·VAL05/08A·FH 11/08H·VIK17/08A·IBV31/08H·BRE11/09H·AFT15/09A·VES20/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.470.600.930.87
vs Stronger (2)0.501.000.000.001.002.00
vs Similar (27)0.700.740.500.640.920.85
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KR ReykjavikKR Reykjavik

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D10W11D01L10W01L11D04L21WH·KA 06/07A·IA 14/07H·BRE26/07A·IBV02/08H·AFT11/08A·FRA18/08H·STJ25/08A·VES31/08H·VIK14/09A·KA 21/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.001.000.931.271.07
vs Stronger (2)1.003.000.004.002.002.00
vs Similar (27)1.070.891.070.711.081.08
vs Weaker (1)3.000.00--3.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (IA Akranes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IA Akranes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

IA AkranesIA Akranes

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W01L20W02L01L02L10W21W40WH·FRA05/07H·KR 14/07A·KA 19/07H·VAL05/08A·FH 11/08H·VIK17/08A·IBV31/08H·BRE11/09H·AFT15/09A·VES20/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.070.800.731.001.40
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (27)0.891.110.860.710.921.54
vs Weaker (1)3.001.00--3.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KR ReykjavikKR Reykjavik

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L01L01L01L20W00D11D00D03L03LH·KA 06/07A·IA 14/07H·BRE26/07A·IBV02/08H·AFT11/08A·FRA18/08H·STJ25/08A·VES31/08H·VIK14/09A·KA 21/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.131.870.930.731.33
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.003.000.001.00
vs Similar (27)1.331.072.000.790.621.38
vs Weaker (1)3.001.00--3.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (IA Akranes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IA Akranes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
IA Akranes and KR Reykjavik have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
AFT (5)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
VES (7)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
IA Akranes and KR Reykjavik have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
IA Akranes and KR Reykjavik have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
AFT (7)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
IA Akranes and KR Reykjavik have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
2
IA wins
2
Draws
2
KR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

IA Akranes vs KR Reykjavik · H/A from IA
DateH/AGameScore
14/07/25HIA Vs KR Reykjavik1-0
27/04/25AKR Reykjavik Vs IA5-0
01/09/24AKR Reykjavik Vs IA4-2
18/06/24HIA Vs KR Reykjavik2-1
04/09/22HIA Vs KR Reykjavik4-4
15/06/22AKR Reykjavik Vs IA3-3

IA AkranesIA Akranes

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/09/25AVestri Vs IA0-4
15/09/25HIA Vs Afturelding3-1
11/09/25HIA Vs Breidablik3-0
31/08/25AIBV Vestmannaeyjar Vs IA2-0
17/08/25HIA Vs Vikingur Reykjavik0-1
11/08/25AFH hafnarfjordur Vs IA3-2
05/08/25HIA Vs Valur Reykjavik2-2
19/07/25AKA Akureyri Vs IA2-0
14/07/25HIA Vs KR Reykjavik1-0
05/07/25HIA Vs Fram Reykjavik0-1

KR ReykjavikKR Reykjavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/09/25AKA Akureyri Vs KR4-2
14/09/25HKR Vs Vikingur Reykjavik0-7
31/08/25AVestri Vs KR1-1
25/08/25HKR Vs Stjarnan1-2
18/08/25AFram Reykjavik Vs KR0-1
11/08/25HKR Vs Afturelding2-1
02/08/25AIBV Vestmannaeyjar Vs KR2-1
26/07/25HKR Vs Breidablik1-1
14/07/25AIA Akranes Vs KR1-0
06/07/25HKR Vs KA Akureyri1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

IA Akranes
IA Akranes
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWW1.32
HomeWDLWW1.44
AwayWLLLW1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%44%36%
AVG goals3.463.083.84
Over 1.5 %82%72%92%
Over 2.5 %66%64%68%
Over 3.5 %42%36%48%
Scored1.641.721.56
Conceded1.821.362.28
BTTS52%44%60%
Clean Sheet22%28%16%
Corners---
Cards---
KR Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLL1.30
HomeLDWLL1.73
AwayLLWDL0.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%50%21%
AVG goals4.444.883.96
Over 1.5 %90%96%83%
Over 2.5 %78%85%71%
Over 3.5 %62%65%58%
Scored2.403.001.75
Conceded2.041.882.21
BTTS74%73%75%
Clean Sheet16%19%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Vikingur ReykjavikVikingur Reykjavik2757
63%
2.1
5831+27
3.3
85%
67%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3122.11.1
-
2Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik2745
48%
1.7
6146+15
4.0
100%
74%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.31.7
-
3StjarnanStjarnan2742
44%
1.6
5045+5
3.5
93%
74%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.7
-
4BreidablikBreidablik2742
41%
1.6
4642+4
3.3
89%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.71.6
-
5KA AkureyriKA Akureyri2739
41%
1.4
4549-4
3.5
81%
59%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.8
-
6Fram ReykjavikFram Reykjavik2736
37%
1.3
4140+1
3.0
85%
52%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.51.5
-
7IA AkranesIA Akranes2734
41%
1.3
3750-13
3.2
81%
63%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.9
-
8FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur2733
30%
1.2
4946+3
3.5
89%
63%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.81.7
-
9IBV VestmannaeyjarIBV Vestmannaeyjar2733
33%
1.2
3437-3
2.6
81%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.31.4
-
10KR ReykjavikKR Reykjavik2731
30%
1.1
5562-7
4.3
93%
85%
63%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.02.3
-
11VestriVestri2729
30%
1.1
2644-18
2.6
78%
33%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.6
-
12AftureldingAfturelding2727
22%
1.0
3646-10
3.0
81%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.31.7
-
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →

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