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IA Akranes vs Stjarnan Result & Analysis

Date: 26/07/2026
Time: 19:15
Final 5-1
IA Akranes
IA Akranes
Vs
51%
24%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Stjarnan
Stjarnan
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives IA Akranes a 51% win probability against Stjarnan in the Iceland: Úrvalsdeild on 2026-07-26, with 24% for the draw and 25% for Stjarnan. The model estimates around 3.3 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (10.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (85%).

Results analysis

IA Akranes finished 5-1 against Stjarnan (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 51% home win, 24% draw and 25% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (85%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

IA Akranes win✓ Hit
50.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan win✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

IA AkranesIA Akranes

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L30W31W40W32W20W15L10W23L25LA·IBV31/08H·BRE11/09H·AFT15/09A·VES20/09H·KR 27/09A·IBV04/10A·KA 19/10H·AFT25/10A·KA 12/07A·KEF20/07
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.402.131.311.381.472.71
vs Stronger (4)2.001.001.500.502.501.50
vs Similar (26)1.312.311.271.551.332.87
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StjarnanStjarnan

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W21W32W21W00D23L23L11D23L05LH·VES17/08A·KR 25/08H·KA 31/08A·VAL14/09H·FH 21/09H·VIK29/09A·VAL04/10A·FRA20/10H·BRE26/10A·KR 19/07
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.802.271.801.331.80
vs Stronger (3)2.672.332.002.504.002.00
vs Similar (16)1.942.062.712.141.332.00
vs Weaker (11)1.361.271.831.170.801.40
Clean sheet %10% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (IA Akranes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.6%
Under 1.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.2%
Under 2.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.1%
Under 3.5
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.8%
No
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.2%
1-2
6.5%
1-0
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
3-1
6.1%
0-0
4.8%
IA Akranes goals ↓
Stjarnan goals →
01234
04.8%4.1%3.4%1.5%0.5%
16.4%11%6.5%2.9%1.0%
27.2%9.5%6.3%2.8%0.9%
34.6%6.1%4.1%1.8%0.6%
42.2%3.0%2.0%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IA Akranes goals (down), columns = Stjarnan goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
KR Reykjavik
2.20
Fram Reykjavik
1.83
IA Akranes
1.67
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.60
FH hafnarfjordur
1.50
Stjarnan
1.50
Keflavik
1.43
Breidablik
1.33
Thor Akureyri
1.17
KA Akureyri
1.00
Valur Reykjavik
0.75
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.33
IA Akranes is 0.17 points better than Stjarnan in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.80
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.80
IA Akranes
2.67
Fram Reykjavik
2.33
Keflavik
1.86
Valur Reykjavik
1.75
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.33
Stjarnan
1.25
Breidablik
1.17
KA Akureyri
1.00
FH hafnarfjordur
1.00
Thor Akureyri
0.67
IA Akranes is 1.42 goals better than Stjarnan in terms of goals scored per game (2.67 vs 1.25).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FH hafnarfjordur
0.83
Breidablik
1.33
Keflavik
1.57
KA Akureyri
1.60
KR Reykjavik
1.60
Fram Reykjavik
1.67
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.83
IA Akranes
2.00
Valur Reykjavik
2.25
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.50
Stjarnan
3.00
IA Akranes is 1.00 goals better than Stjarnan in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 3.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (23)
€5m
KA (43)
€4m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (18)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (9)
€2m
VR (7)
€2m
KA (16)
€2m
BRE (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (5)
€1m
BRE (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (9)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
KA (18)
€1m
VR (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

IA Akranes vs Stjarnan · H/A from IA
DateH/AGameScore
22/06/25HIA Vs Stjarnan0-3
14/04/25AStjarnan Vs IA2-1
30/09/24AStjarnan Vs IA3-0
28/07/24HIA Vs Stjarnan1-3
05/05/24AStjarnan Vs IA4-1
17/07/22HIA Vs Stjarnan0-3
19/04/22AStjarnan Vs IA2-2

IA AkranesIA Akranes

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/26AKeflavik Vs IA5-2
12/07/26AKA Akureyri Vs IA3-2
25/10/25HIA Vs Afturelding1-0
19/10/25AKA Akureyri Vs IA5-1
04/10/25AIBV Vestmannaeyjar Vs IA0-2
27/09/25HIA Vs KR Reykjavik3-2
20/09/25AVestri Vs IA0-4
15/09/25HIA Vs Afturelding3-1
11/09/25HIA Vs Breidablik3-0
31/08/25AIBV Vestmannaeyjar Vs IA2-0

StjarnanStjarnan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/07/26AKR Reykjavik Vs STJ5-0
26/10/25HSTJ Vs Breidablik2-3
20/10/25AFram Reykjavik Vs STJ1-1
04/10/25AValur Reykjavik Vs STJ3-2
29/09/25HSTJ Vs Vikingur Reykjavik2-3
21/09/25HSTJ Vs FH hafnarfjordur0-0
14/09/25AValur Reykjavik Vs STJ1-2
31/08/25HSTJ Vs KA Akureyri3-2
25/08/25AKR Reykjavik Vs STJ1-2
17/08/25HSTJ Vs Vestri2-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

IA Akranes
IA Akranes
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLL1.24
HomeLWWWW1.61
AwayWWLLL0.93
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%52%26%
AVG goals3.443.173.67
Over 1.5 %82%70%93%
Over 2.5 %64%65%63%
Over 3.5 %42%39%44%
Scored1.521.781.30
Conceded1.921.392.37
BTTS52%43%59%
Clean Sheet24%30%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Stjarnan
Stjarnan
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL1.54
HomeWWDLL2.12
AwayWWLDL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%67%23%
AVG goals3.583.673.50
Over 1.5 %94%92%96%
Over 2.5 %74%75%73%
Over 3.5 %48%54%42%
Scored1.842.171.54
Conceded1.741.501.96
BTTS72%67%77%
Clean Sheet18%29%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KR ReykjavikKR Reykjavik511
60%
2.2
198+11
5.4
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.81.6
-
2Fram ReykjavikFram Reykjavik611
50%
1.8
1410+4
4.0
83%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.7
-
3IA AkranesIA Akranes610
50%
1.7
1612+4
4.7
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.72.0
-
4KeflavikKeflavik710
43%
1.4
1311+2
3.4
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.6
-
5FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur69
33%
1.5
65+1
1.8
50%
17%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.8
-
6Vikingur ReykjavikVikingur Reykjavik58
40%
1.6
149+5
4.6
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.81.8
-
7BreidablikBreidablik68
33%
1.3
78-1
2.5
50%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
8Thor AkureyriThor Akureyri67
33%
1.2
411-7
2.5
67%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.8
-
9StjarnanStjarnan46
50%
1.5
512-7
4.2
75%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.23.0
-
10KA AkureyriKA Akureyri55
20%
1.0
58-3
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.01.6
-
11Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik43
25%
0.8
79-2
4.0
100%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.82.2
-
12IBV VestmannaeyjarIBV Vestmannaeyjar62
0%
0.3
815-7
3.8
83%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.5
-
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →

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