IA Akranes is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 68% chance of securing a home win. The model's high rating for the home side is largely due to Thor Akureyri's struggles on the road, where they concede an average of 1.67 goals per match against similar opponents.
The most likely match result is a home win, with the expected total number of goals standing at 4.0. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favour of IA Akranes, with a probability of 8.7%. IA Akranes have scored an average of 1.5 goals per match at home, while conceding the same amount. Thor Akureyri, on the other hand, have scored 2 goals per match away from home.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 with a 91.5% probability and Over 2.5 with a 76.1% probability. IA Akranes have a 68% chance of winning, a 18% chance of drawing, and a 15% chance of losing. The model's selection for Over 1.5 has a 91.5% probability, while Over 2.5 has a 76.1% probability.
Results analysis
The win extends IA Akranes' run, coming off a victory over Thor Akureyri last time out. The final score was a convincing 2-0, which is a stark contrast to the expected most likely scores of 2-1, 3-1, or 1-1. The model's selection, a Home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 68%. The model also correctly identified IA Akranes as the favourite. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 91.5%, but Over 2.5 goals missed, with a probability of 76.1%. The actual total goals scored was significantly higher than the expected 4.0, with the most likely total goals being 6+ and occurring 21% of the time.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
IA Akranes win✓ Hit
67.7%
Avg Implied 63.3% · @ 1.43
Edge
+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
Dafabet
1.45
Bet365
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Draw✗ Miss
17.5%
Avg Implied 19.3% · @ 4.70
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.23
Dafabet
5.00
1xBet
4.95
Marathonbet
4.95
Superbet
4.85
Thor Akureyri win✗ Miss
14.7%
Avg Implied 17.4% · @ 5.23
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.76
Dafabet
5.60
1xBet
5.52
Marathonbet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
IA Akranes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.63
1.67
1.28
2.00
2.17
vs Stronger (4)
1.75
1.25
1.75
1.25
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.62
1.75
1.64
1.29
1.60
2.40
vs Weaker (2)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Thor Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Thor Akureyri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.33
2.56
1.12
2.07
1.57
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.96
1.39
2.09
1.18
1.83
1.58
vs Weaker (6)
3.83
1.17
4.00
1.00
3.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (IA Akranes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.5%
@ 1.06+4.9%
Under 1.5
8.5%
@ 6.81-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Under
Betfair
8.00
888Sport
7.50
Marathonbet
7.40
1xBet
7.40
Bet365
7.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
76.1%
@ 1.27+3.9%
Under 2.5
23.9%
@ 3.31-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.63
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.35
1xBet
3.34
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.6%
@ 1.73+3.0%
Under 3.5
43.4%
@ 2.00-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
SBO
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.11
Betfair
2.10
SBO
2.06
Marathonbet
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
67.7%
@ 1.39+1.9%
No
32.3%
@ 2.68-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Betfair
1.40
No
1xBet
2.81
Betfair
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
888Sport
2.75
William Hil
2.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.7%@ 8.23+3.2%
3-1
7.9%@ 9.47+3.1%
1-1
7.0%@ 10.15+2.5%
2-0 ✓
6.9%@ 10.39+2.5%
3-0
6.3%@ 11.95+2.5%
2-2
5.5%@ 11.89+1.7%
4-1
5.4%@ 14.27+2.2%
3-2
5.0%@ 13.82+1.7%
IA Akranes goals ↓
Thor Akureyri goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.5%
1.7%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
1
4.4%
7.0%
4.0%
1.7%
0.5%
2
6.9%
8.7%
5.5%
2.3%
0.7%
3
6.3%
7.9%
5.0%
2.1%
0.7%
4
4.3%
5.4%
3.4%
1.4%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IA Akranes goals (down), columns = Thor Akureyri goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KR Reykjavik
2.14
Fram Reykjavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.71
Stjarnan
1.71
FH hafnarfjordur
1.62
IA Akranes
1.50
Keflavik
1.44
Thor Akureyri
1.25
Breidablik
1.00
KA Akureyri
0.88
Valur Reykjavik
0.71
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.25
IA Akranes is 0.25 points better than Thor Akureyri in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.57
Fram Reykjavik
2.56
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.43
IA Akranes
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
1.86
KA Akureyri
1.75
Stjarnan
1.71
Keflavik
1.67
Breidablik
1.25
FH hafnarfjordur
1.12
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.00
Thor Akureyri
0.88
IA Akranes is 1.50 goals better than Thor Akureyri in terms of goals scored per game (2.38 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FH hafnarfjordur
0.88
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.43
Keflavik
1.44
KR Reykjavik
1.71
Breidablik
1.75
Fram Reykjavik
1.78
Thor Akureyri
1.88
IA Akranes
1.88
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.12
KA Akureyri
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
2.43
Stjarnan
2.43
IA Akranes and Thor Akureyri are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
IA Akranes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.83
0.39
0.58
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.25
0.75
0.25
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.54
0.86
0.43
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Thor Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Thor Akureyri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.53
1.38
0.50
1.00
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.52
0.82
0.55
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
3.00
0.67
3.25
0.50
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (IA Akranes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IA Akranes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
IA Akranes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.13
0.83
0.89
1.42
1.50
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.88
1.21
0.79
0.86
1.00
1.70
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.50
-
-
3.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Thor Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Thor Akureyri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.80
1.19
0.62
1.07
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.17
0.87
1.27
0.64
1.08
1.08
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.50
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (IA Akranes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IA Akranes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Thor Akureyri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
91.5%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.07
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
76.1%
1.27
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Superbet
1.29
+3.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
TA (21)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
IA Akranes and Thor Akureyri have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
TA (7)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
IA Akranes and Thor Akureyri have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
IA Akranes and Thor Akureyri have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
IA Akranes and Thor Akureyri have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Fram Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik
Keflavik
FH hafnarfjordur
Vikingur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
Breidablik
KA Akureyri
Valur Reykjavik
IBV Vestmannaeyjar