The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an average of four goals and a 21% chance of six or more. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 8.1% probability. IA Akranes, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages two goals scored and half a goal conceded. Vikingur Reykjavik, on the road to a weaker side, nets 2.3 goals and concedes one on average. The predicted result favours an away win, with a 40% chance for Vikingur, 22% for a draw, and 37% for IA Akranes. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (95%), Over 1.5 (91.4%), Under 6.5 (89.1%), Away over 0.5 goals (86.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (86.6%), Home over 0.5 goals (85.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (85.1%) and Away +2 handicap (79.5%). The model’s picks reflect a strong likelihood of a high-scoring, away-victory outcome.
Results analysis
The updated form storyline shows IA Akranes unbeaten in their last five, while Vikingur Reykjavik come off a win, setting the stage for a tight encounter. The model predicted an away win with a 40% probability, and that call proved correct as the final score was 1-2 in favor of Vikingur. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 hit at 95%, Over 1.5 hit at 91.4%, Under 6.5 hit at 89.1%, Away over 0.5 goals hit at 86.9%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 86.6%, Home over 0.5 goals hit at 85.8%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 85.1%, and Away +2 handicap hit at 79.5%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages and each figure appears only once.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
IA Akranes win✗ Miss
37.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik win✓ Hit
40.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
IA Akranes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.63
1.35
1.29
2.00
2.08
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.44
1.76
1.27
1.40
1.70
2.30
vs Weaker (2)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Vikingur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vikingur Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.10
2.56
1.00
1.93
1.21
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (8)
2.62
1.12
3.40
1.20
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
2.20
1.00
2.10
1.00
2.30
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (IA Akranes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.4%
Under 1.5
8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
75.9%
Under 2.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.3%
Under 3.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
75.3%
No
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.1%
1-2 ✓
7.5%
2-2
7.3%
2-1
7.2%
1-3
5.1%
2-3
5.0%
3-2
4.8%
3-1
4.7%
IA Akranes goals ↓
Vikingur Reykjavik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.6%
3.1%
3.8%
2.6%
1.3%
1
2.9%
8.1%
7.5%
5.1%
2.6%
2
3.6%
7.2%
7.3%
5.0%
2.5%
3
2.3%
4.7%
4.8%
3.2%
1.6%
4
1.1%
2.3%
2.3%
1.6%
0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IA Akranes goals (down), columns = Vikingur Reykjavik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Fram Reykjavik
2.50
Valur Reykjavik
2.40
Kári
2.25
Keflavik
2.25
Stjarnan
2.25
Thor Akureyri
2.25
Vestri
2.20
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Afturelding
2.00
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Tindastóll
2.00
Vikingur Olafsiik
2.00
Skallagrímur
2.00
Haukar
2.00
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
2.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.00
Selfoss
2.00
Leiknir R.
1.50
Fylkir
1.50
IR Reykjavik
1.50
Fjolnir
1.50
Grotta
1.50
IA Akranes
1.50
Njardvik
1.50
Grindavik
1.50
KA Akureyri
1.50
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
1.50
Vídir
1.50
RB
1.50
Reynir
1.50
Höttur / Huginn
1.50
Smári
1.50
BF 108
1.50
Kría
1.50
KFR
1.50
Hafnir
1.50
ÍH
1.50
Augnablik
1.50
Spyrnir
1.50
Magni
1.50
Hvíti riddarinn
1.50
Árbær
1.50
Sindri
1.50
Ellidi
1.50
KV
1.50
KR Reykjavik
1.50
Breidablik
1.50
Úlfarnir
1.33
Völsungur
1.33
Reynir Hellissandur
1.10
KB
1.10
Dalvík / Reynir
0.00
Ægir
0.00
Álftanes
0.00
Álafoss
0.00
ÍBU
0.00
Árborg
0.00
KFG
0.00
SR
0.00
Vængir Júpiters
0.00
Hamar
0.00
KFS
0.00
Afríka
0.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
0.00
Léttir
0.00
KF
0.00
Stokkseyri
0.00
Neisti D.
0.00
Thorlákur
0.00
Ýmir
0.00
KH
0.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Thróttur Vogar
0.00
FH hafnarfjordur
0.00
Fálkar
0.00
Einherji
0.00
IA Akranes is 1.50 points better than Vikingur Reykjavik in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
6.50
Kári
5.50
Vikingur Olafsiik
4.67
Stjarnan
4.50
Njardvik
4.00
BF 108
4.00
Throttur Reykjavik
3.67
HK Kopavogur
3.50
Fylkir
3.50
Keflavik
3.50
Thor Akureyri
3.50
Selfoss
3.33
IR Reykjavik
3.00
Grindavik
3.00
KA Akureyri
3.00
Álafoss
3.00
Tindastóll
3.00
ÍH
3.00
KF
3.00
Hvíti riddarinn
3.00
Ellidi
3.00
Ýmir
3.00
Breidablik
3.00
Leiknir R.
2.50
Smári
2.50
KFR
2.50
Spyrnir
2.50
Árbær
2.50
Völsungur
2.33
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.33
Reynir Hellissandur
2.03
KB
2.03
Fjolnir
2.00
Dalvík / Reynir
2.00
IA Akranes
2.00
Afturelding
2.00
Ægir
2.00
RB
2.00
KFG
2.00
SR
2.00
Hafnir
2.00
Skallagrímur
2.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
2.00
Augnablik
2.00
Haukar
2.00
Magni
2.00
KV
2.00
Valur Reykjavik
1.80
Úlfarnir
1.67
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
1.67
Vestri
1.60
Grotta
1.50
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
1.50
Vídir
1.50
Reynir
1.50
Fram Reykjavik
1.50
Vængir Júpiters
1.00
Kría
1.00
Hamar
1.00
KFS
1.00
Léttir
1.00
Sindri
1.00
Thorlákur
1.00
KH
1.00
Höttur / Huginn
0.50
Álftanes
0.00
ÍBU
0.00
Árborg
0.00
Afríka
0.00
Stokkseyri
0.00
Neisti D.
0.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Thróttur Vogar
0.00
FH hafnarfjordur
0.00
Fálkar
0.00
Einherji
0.00
IA Akranes is 2.00 goals better than Vikingur Reykjavik in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 0.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Afturelding
0.33
Leiknir R.
0.50
Sindri
0.50
Fram Reykjavik
0.50
Vestri
0.80
Valur Reykjavik
0.80
IA Akranes
1.00
Vídir
1.00
Skallagrímur
1.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.00
FH hafnarfjordur
1.00
Thor Akureyri
1.00
Breidablik
1.00
Throttur Reykjavik
1.33
HK Kopavogur
1.50
Fylkir
1.50
IR Reykjavik
1.50
Keflavik
1.50
Grindavik
1.50
Spyrnir
1.50
Haukar
1.67
KA Akureyri
2.00
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
2.00
Vængir Júpiters
2.00
Tindastóll
2.00
Léttir
2.00
Hvíti riddarinn
2.00
Ellidi
2.00
Völsungur
2.00
KR Reykjavik
2.00
Selfoss
2.00
Einherji
2.00
Vikingur Olafsiik
2.33
Fjolnir
2.50
Grotta
2.50
Njardvik
2.50
Höttur / Huginn
2.50
Smári
2.50
BF 108
2.50
KFR
2.50
Augnablik
2.50
Úlfarnir
2.67
Reynir Hellissandur
2.74
KB
2.74
Kári
2.75
Ægir
3.00
Álftanes
3.00
KFG
3.00
SR
3.00
Kría
3.00
Hamar
3.00
ÍH
3.00
Stokkseyri
3.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
3.00
Stjarnan
3.25
RB
3.50
Reynir
3.50
Dalvík / Reynir
4.00
Álafoss
4.00
Árborg
4.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
4.00
Thorlákur
4.00
Ýmir
4.00
KH
4.00
KV
4.00
Fálkar
4.00
Magni
4.50
Árbær
4.50
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
4.67
Hafnir
5.00
KF
5.00
Neisti D.
5.00
ÍBU
6.00
Thróttur Vogar
6.00
KFS
7.00
Afríka
8.00
IA Akranes is 2.00 goals better than Vikingur Reykjavik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 3.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
IA Akranes or Draw✗ Miss
59.6%
Avg Implied -
37%
22%
40%
covers IA Akranes + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes or Vikingur Reykjavik✓ Hit
77.8%
Avg Implied -
37%
22%
40%
covers IA Akranes + Vikingur Reykjavik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Vikingur Reykjavik✓ Hit
62.7%
Avg Implied -
37%
22%
40%
covers Draw + Vikingur Reykjavik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
IA Akranes over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.8%
Under
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
58.0%
Under
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
31.0%
Under
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.9%
Under
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
60.2%
Under
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
33.2%
Under
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
14.9%
Under
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to IA Akranes, so a minus line means IA Akranes give that many goals of a start and Vikingur Reykjavik receive them. At -1, IA Akranes must win by two or more to land; a one-goal IA Akranes win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Vikingur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vikingur Reykjavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.93
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
1.38
0.50
1.80
0.60
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (20)
0.85
0.50
0.60
0.50
1.10
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (IA Akranes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IA Akranes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
IA Akranes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.07
0.71
0.88
1.23
1.31
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
1.20
0.67
0.93
0.90
1.60
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.50
-
-
3.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Vikingur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vikingur Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.60
1.56
0.50
1.00
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (8)
1.25
0.62
1.60
0.60
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (20)
1.35
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.20
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (IA Akranes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IA Akranes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →