IA Akranes host Vikingur Reykjavik in Iceland's top division, with the home side coming off a win against Thor Akureyri. This match is expected to be high-scoring, with an average of 3.4 goals anticipated. IA Akranes have been scoring and conceding at a rate of 1.46 goals per game at home, while Vikingur Reykjavik have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded when playing away against similar opponents.
The model predicts a home win, with a 42% probability of IA Akranes taking all three points. The draw is the second most likely outcome at 25%, while Vikingur Reykjavik winning is the least likely at 34%. The most likely score is 1-1, although the expected total is 3 goals. IA Akranes are the model's selection to win, with a 42% chance of success. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, which has a high probability of 85.9%.
Results analysis
IA Akranes' 2-2 draw against Vikingur Reykjavik has extended their recent winning streak. The win was a surprise, as the home team had been struggling to score, averaging just 1.46 goals per game. The model had picked IA Akranes to win, but unfortunately, their call was incorrect. The model's selection had a 42% chance of winning, but Vikingur Reykjavik's 34% chance of winning proved to be the correct one. The model's suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, hit, with a probability of 85.9%. The most likely score was a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 10.7%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
IA Akranes win✗ Miss
41.6%
Avg Implied 20.4% · @ 4.44
Edge
+21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.82
Betfair
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
1xBet
4.64
Unibet
4.60
Draw✓ Hit
24.6%
Avg Implied 21.2% · @ 4.28
Edge
+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.60
Pinnacle
4.53
Superbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.45
Vikingur Reykjavik win✗ Miss
33.8%
Avg Implied 58.4% · @ 1.55
Edge
-24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Dafabet
1.59
1xBet
1.58
Superbet
1.58
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
IA Akranes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.60
1.65
1.24
2.15
2.08
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.00
1.67
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.72
1.72
1.64
1.29
1.82
2.27
vs Weaker (2)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Vikingur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vikingur Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.33
2.33
1.00
1.80
1.67
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (9)
1.56
1.67
2.20
1.40
0.75
2.00
vs Weaker (19)
2.37
1.11
2.33
0.89
2.40
1.30
Clean sheet %
30% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (IA Akranes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.9%
@ 1.06-0.6%
Under 1.5
14.1%
@ 6.76+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Under
Bet365
7.50
888Sport
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
7.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.3%
@ 1.28-6.5%
Under 2.5
34.7%
@ 3.25+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.35
10Bet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.4%
@ 1.73-10.0%
Under 3.5
56.6%
@ 1.99+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
Unibet
1.76
888Sport
1.75
Betfair
1.75
Under
SBO
2.12
Pinnacle
2.08
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
Betano
2.02
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.1%
@ 1.34-1.1%
No
32.9%
@ 2.87+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.36
Betfair
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
No
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
2.99
Marathonbet
2.93
Superbet
2.92
Betano
2.92
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%@ 9.55+5.9%
2-1
8.7%@ 14.04+5.4%
1-2
7.8%@ 8.24+2.2%
2-2 ✓
6.9%@ 10.73+2.6%
2-0
5.5%@ 33.34+4.1%
1-0
5.2%@ 23.30+3.2%
3-1
5.1%@ 28.66+3.5%
0-1
4.5%@ 13.49+1.1%
IA Akranes goals ↓
Vikingur Reykjavik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
4.5%
4.4%
2.3%
0.9%
1
5.2%
11%
7.8%
4.1%
1.6%
2
5.5%
8.7%
6.9%
3.6%
1.4%
3
3.2%
5.1%
4.1%
2.2%
0.9%
4
1.4%
2.3%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IA Akranes goals (down), columns = Vikingur Reykjavik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KR Reykjavik
2.33
Fram Reykjavik
2.12
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.83
Keflavik
1.62
IA Akranes
1.57
Stjarnan
1.50
FH hafnarfjordur
1.43
Breidablik
1.14
Thor Akureyri
1.00
KA Akureyri
0.86
Valur Reykjavik
0.67
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.29
IA Akranes is 0.26 points worse than Vikingur Reykjavik in terms of average points per game (1.57 vs 1.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
4.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.67
Fram Reykjavik
2.62
IA Akranes
2.43
Valur Reykjavik
1.83
Keflavik
1.75
KA Akureyri
1.71
Stjarnan
1.67
Breidablik
1.43
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.14
FH hafnarfjordur
1.00
Thor Akureyri
0.86
IA Akranes is 0.24 goals worse than Vikingur Reykjavik in terms of goals scored per game (2.43 vs 2.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FH hafnarfjordur
0.86
Keflavik
1.38
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.50
Breidablik
1.71
Fram Reykjavik
1.75
KR Reykjavik
1.83
IA Akranes
1.86
Thor Akureyri
2.14
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.29
KA Akureyri
2.43
Valur Reykjavik
2.50
Stjarnan
2.83
IA Akranes is 0.36 goals worse than Vikingur Reykjavik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
IA Akranes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
0.82
0.35
0.77
0.69
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.56
0.86
0.43
0.82
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Vikingur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vikingur Reykjavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.43
0.73
0.40
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.44
0.80
0.60
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (19)
0.84
0.42
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (IA Akranes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IA Akranes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
IA Akranes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.10
0.82
0.88
1.38
1.38
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.88
1.16
0.79
0.86
1.00
1.55
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.50
-
-
3.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Vikingur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vikingur Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.90
1.60
0.60
1.07
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (9)
1.00
1.22
1.40
0.80
0.50
1.75
vs Weaker (19)
1.53
0.68
1.67
0.56
1.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
37% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (IA Akranes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IA Akranes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-0.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
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Fram Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik
Keflavik
FH hafnarfjordur
Stjarnan
Breidablik
Thor Akureyri
KA Akureyri
Valur Reykjavik
IBV Vestmannaeyjar