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IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Fram Reykjavik Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 1-2
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Vs
43%
25%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Fram Reykjavik
Fram Reykjavik
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

IBV Vestmannaeyjar host Fram Reykjavik at home, with recent form suggesting a closely contested match. The home side is coming off a draw, while the away side has been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including a win over IBV Vestmannaeyjar. This sets the stage for a high-scoring encounter, with the model predicting 3.3 goals on average.

The model's favoured match result is a home win, with a 43% chance of IBV Vestmannaeyjar taking the three points. The most likely total number of goals is 3, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 11%. The home side's home form is decent, with an average of 1.64 goals scored and 1.45 conceded against similar opponents. In contrast, Fram Reykjavik's away form is less impressive, with an average of 1.67 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals has a high probability of 85%, with a small edge. The probabilities for the match result are 43% for a home win, 25% for a draw, and 32% for an away win.

Results analysis

The upset of the match came when Fram Reykjavik secured a 1-2 win over IBV Vestmannaeyjar, extending their unbeaten run in their last 5 matches. The model's selection, Home win, was wrong, as it had a pre-match probability of 43%. The model's call was incorrect. The model's selection had been the favourite going into the match. Meanwhile, the model's suggested selection, Over 1.5, hit, with a probability of 85%. The actual result was an Away win.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

IBV Vestmannaeyjar win✗ Miss
42.8%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.27
Edge
+15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.45
1xBet
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.38
Superbet
3.35
Draw✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied 24.0% · @ 3.79
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.07
Marathonbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Betano
3.90
Dafabet
3.90
Fram Reykjavik win✓ Hit
32.3%
Avg Implied 48.2% · @ 1.89
Edge
-15.9%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.97
Superbet
1.95
Dafabet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.93
William Hil
1.91

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

IBV VestmannaeyjarIBV Vestmannaeyjar

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W11D11D50W02L12L34L25L22D01LH·IA 31/08A·BRE15/09H·AFT21/09A·VES28/09H·IA 04/10A·KR 19/10H·KA 25/10A·KR 12/07H·KA 19/07A·BRE27/07
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.501.401.271.131.73
vs Stronger (13)1.081.461.431.290.671.67
vs Similar (17)1.411.531.381.251.441.78
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Fram Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Fram ReykjavikFram Reykjavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-622D12L20W13L11D43W11D61W32W00DA·FH 14/09A·VIK21/09H·VAL28/09A·BRE05/10H·STJ20/10A·FH 25/10A·KEF06/07H·THO12/07A·VAL18/07H·FH 26/07
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.431.930.791.502.00
vs Stronger (15)1.471.731.861.291.122.12
vs Similar (15)1.931.132.000.291.881.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.0%
@ 1.09+1.3%
Under 1.5
15.0%
@ 5.63-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
Under
Betfair
6.50
Pinnacle
6.26
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.8%
@ 1.38-2.5%
Under 2.5
36.2%
@ 2.71+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.41
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.87
Unibet
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.7%
@ 1.99-4.8%
Under 3.5
58.3%
@ 1.73+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.11
Pinnacle
2.05
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Betfair
1.75
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.8%
@ 1.38-0.2%
No
34.2%
@ 2.69+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.38
No
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.81
Marathonbet
2.76
Betano
2.75
Superbet
2.72

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%@ 7.90+5.3%
2-1
8.9%@ 11.03+4.8%
1-2 ✓
7.6%@ 8.12+2.0%
2-2
6.7%@ 10.20+2.3%
2-0
5.8%@ 21.45+3.7%
1-0
5.6%@ 15.76+2.7%
3-1
5.2%@ 21.33+3.1%
0-0
4.7%@ 18.21+2.2%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals ↓
Fram Reykjavik goals →
01234
04.7%4.7%4.3%2.2%0.8%
15.6%11%7.6%3.9%1.5%
25.8%8.9%6.7%3.4%1.3%
33.4%5.2%4.0%2.0%0.8%
41.5%2.3%1.8%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals (down), columns = Fram Reykjavik goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
KR Reykjavik
2.20
Fram Reykjavik
1.83
IA Akranes
1.67
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.60
FH hafnarfjordur
1.50
Stjarnan
1.50
Keflavik
1.43
Breidablik
1.33
Thor Akureyri
1.17
KA Akureyri
1.00
Valur Reykjavik
0.75
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.33
IBV Vestmannaeyjar is 1.50 points worse than Fram Reykjavik in terms of average points per game (0.33 vs 1.83).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.80
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.80
IA Akranes
2.67
Fram Reykjavik
2.33
Keflavik
1.86
Valur Reykjavik
1.75
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.33
Stjarnan
1.25
Breidablik
1.17
KA Akureyri
1.00
FH hafnarfjordur
1.00
Thor Akureyri
0.67
IBV Vestmannaeyjar is 1.00 goals worse than Fram Reykjavik in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 2.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FH hafnarfjordur
0.83
Breidablik
1.33
Keflavik
1.57
KA Akureyri
1.60
KR Reykjavik
1.60
Fram Reykjavik
1.67
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.83
IA Akranes
2.00
Valur Reykjavik
2.25
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.50
Stjarnan
3.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar is 0.83 goals worse than Fram Reykjavik in terms of goals conceded per game (2.50 vs 1.67).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.0%1.09
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
+1.3%✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (23)
€5m
KA (43)
€4m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (18)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (9)
€2m
VR (7)
€2m
KA (16)
€2m
BRE (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (5)
€1m
BRE (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (9)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
KA (18)
€1m
VR (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Fram Reykjavik · H/A from IV
DateH/AGameScore
29/06/25AFram Reykjavik Vs IV2-0
24/04/25HIV Vs Fram Reykjavik3-1
23/09/23HIV Vs Fram Reykjavik2-2
08/07/23HIV Vs Fram Reykjavik1-0
03/05/23AFram Reykjavik Vs IV3-1
16/10/22AFram Reykjavik Vs IV1-3
11/09/22HIV Vs Fram Reykjavik2-2
20/06/22AFram Reykjavik Vs IV3-3

IBV VestmannaeyjarIBV Vestmannaeyjar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/07/26ABreidablik Vs IV1-0
19/07/26HIV Vs KA Akureyri2-2
12/07/26AKR Reykjavik Vs IV5-2
25/10/25HIV Vs KA Akureyri3-4
19/10/25AKR Reykjavik Vs IV2-1
04/10/25HIV Vs IA Akranes0-2
28/09/25AVestri Vs IV0-5
21/09/25HIV Vs Afturelding1-1
15/09/25ABreidablik Vs IV1-1
31/08/25HIV Vs IA Akranes2-0

Fram ReykjavikFram Reykjavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/07/26HFR Vs FH hafnarfjordur0-0
18/07/26AValur Reykjavik Vs FR2-3
12/07/26HFR Vs Thor Akureyri6-1
06/07/26AKeflavik Vs FR1-1
25/10/25AFH hafnarfjordur Vs FR3-4
20/10/25HFR Vs Stjarnan1-1
05/10/25ABreidablik Vs FR3-1
28/09/25HFR Vs Valur Reykjavik2-0
21/09/25AVikingur Reykjavik Vs FR2-1
14/09/25AFH hafnarfjordur Vs FR2-2

📊 12. Overall Statistics

IBV Vestmannaeyjar
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDL1.40
HomeWDLLD1.72
AwayDWLLL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%48%28%
AVG goals3.002.963.04
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %58%56%60%
Over 3.5 %34%36%32%
Scored1.661.801.52
Conceded1.341.161.52
BTTS52%56%48%
Clean Sheet30%32%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Fram Reykjavik
Fram Reykjavik
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWD1.24
HomeWWDWD1.71
AwayLLWDW0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%50%19%
AVG goals3.283.043.50
Over 1.5 %82%79%85%
Over 2.5 %60%54%65%
Over 3.5 %40%29%50%
Scored1.601.831.38
Conceded1.681.212.12
BTTS68%58%77%
Clean Sheet20%33%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KR ReykjavikKR Reykjavik511
60%
2.2
198+11
5.4
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.81.6
-
2Fram ReykjavikFram Reykjavik611
50%
1.8
1410+4
4.0
83%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.7
-
3IA AkranesIA Akranes610
50%
1.7
1612+4
4.7
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.72.0
-
4KeflavikKeflavik710
43%
1.4
1311+2
3.4
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.6
-
5FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur69
33%
1.5
65+1
1.8
50%
17%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.8
-
6Vikingur ReykjavikVikingur Reykjavik58
40%
1.6
149+5
4.6
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.81.8
-
7BreidablikBreidablik68
33%
1.3
78-1
2.5
50%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
8Thor AkureyriThor Akureyri67
33%
1.2
411-7
2.5
67%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.8
-
9StjarnanStjarnan46
50%
1.5
512-7
4.2
75%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.23.0
-
10KA AkureyriKA Akureyri55
20%
1.0
58-3
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.01.6
-
11Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik43
25%
0.8
79-2
4.0
100%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.82.2
-
12IBV VestmannaeyjarIBV Vestmannaeyjar62
0%
0.3
815-7
3.8
83%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.5
-
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →

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