IBV Vestmannaeyjar are set to face IA Akranes in the Icelandic top-flight on August 16. The recent form of both teams has been a storyline, with IBV Vestmannaeyjar suffering two consecutive defeats, while IA Akranes drew their last match. This match is expected to be high-scoring, with an average of 3.6 goals predicted. The most likely total number of goals is 3, and the single most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 9.4%.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar have been scoring an average of 1.58 goals at home, while conceding 1.5 goals against similar opponents. IA Akranes, meanwhile, have scored 1.67 goals on average while away, but have conceded 2.5 goals against similar opponents.
The model predicts a home win for IBV Vestmannaeyjar, with a 49% chance of victory, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance of an IA Akranes win. The model's selection is the home win. The model also suggests Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 goals, with probabilities of 88.7% and 70.4%, respectively. The home side has a 49% chance of winning, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The away team, IA Akranes, pulled off a stunning upset, defeating the pre-match favourite IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1-3. This win extends their current 2-game winning run. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect. The model had assigned a 48% probability to IBV Vestmannaeyjar winning at home. Meanwhile, the model's selection of Home win had a 48% chance of occurring. The suggested picks all came to fruition, with Over 1.5, Over 2.5, and BTTS Yes all hitting. Over 1.5 had a 88.6% probability, while the edge percentage stood at 6. Over 2.5 had a 70.4% probability, with an edge percentage of 6. BTTS Yes had a 70.1% probability, with an edge percentage of 4.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
IBV Vestmannaeyjar win✗ Miss
47.9%
Avg Implied 35.9% · @ 2.53
Edge
+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.71
Marathonbet
2.61
1xBet
2.61
Dafabet
2.60
William Hil
2.60
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.62
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.84
Betfair
3.75
Dafabet
3.70
10Bet
3.70
1xBet
3.68
IA Akranes win✓ Hit
29.2%
Avg Implied 39.0% · @ 2.33
Edge
-9.9%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.47
Betano
2.40
Dafabet
2.39
Pinnacle
2.38
Marathonbet
2.36
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.53
1.50
1.38
1.21
1.71
vs Stronger (12)
1.08
1.50
1.43
1.43
0.60
1.60
vs Similar (18)
1.56
1.56
1.56
1.33
1.56
1.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (IA Akranes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IA Akranes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.53
1.78
1.11
2.00
2.17
vs Stronger (4)
1.75
1.25
1.75
1.25
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.71
1.62
1.79
1.07
1.60
2.40
vs Weaker (2)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.6%
@ 1.11+5.8%
Under 1.5
11.4%
@ 5.33-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Under
Betfair
6.50
Pinnacle
5.67
888Sport
5.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.45
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.4%
@ 1.41+5.6%
Under 2.5
29.6%
@ 2.60-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
888Sport
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Under
Betfair
2.75
10Bet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.66
Unibet
2.65
888Sport
2.63
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.3%
@ 2.05+4.1%
Under 3.5
50.7%
@ 1.69-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Betfair
1.73
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
70.1%
@ 1.38+3.6%
No
29.9%
@ 2.74-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.40
888Sport
1.40
William Hil
1.40
1xBet
1.37
No
Betfair
3.00
1xBet
2.86
Marathonbet
2.80
888Sport
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.4%@ 7.43+3.4%
2-1
8.8%@ 9.39+4.0%
2-2
7.0%@ 9.79+2.4%
1-2
6.8%@ 8.96+1.8%
3-1
6.0%@ 15.64+3.1%
2-0
5.5%@ 15.69+2.7%
3-2
4.8%@ 17.35+2.2%
1-0
4.5%@ 12.97+1.1%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals ↓
IA Akranes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.5%
3.3%
3.3%
1.7%
0.7%
1
4.5%
9.4%
6.8%
3.6%
1.4%
2
5.5%
8.8%
7.0%
3.7%
1.5%
3
3.8%
6.0%
4.8%
2.5%
1.0%
4
1.9%
3.1%
2.4%
1.3%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals (down), columns = IA Akranes goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KR Reykjavik
2.14
Fram Reykjavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.71
Stjarnan
1.71
FH hafnarfjordur
1.62
IA Akranes
1.50
Keflavik
1.44
Thor Akureyri
1.25
Breidablik
1.00
KA Akureyri
0.88
Valur Reykjavik
0.71
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.25
IBV Vestmannaeyjar is 1.25 points worse than IA Akranes in terms of average points per game (0.25 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.57
Fram Reykjavik
2.56
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.43
IA Akranes
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
1.86
KA Akureyri
1.75
Stjarnan
1.71
Keflavik
1.67
Breidablik
1.25
FH hafnarfjordur
1.12
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.00
Thor Akureyri
0.88
IBV Vestmannaeyjar is 1.38 goals worse than IA Akranes in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FH hafnarfjordur
0.88
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.43
Keflavik
1.44
KR Reykjavik
1.71
Breidablik
1.75
Fram Reykjavik
1.78
Thor Akureyri
1.88
IA Akranes
1.88
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.12
KA Akureyri
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
2.43
Stjarnan
2.43
IBV Vestmannaeyjar is 0.25 goals worse than IA Akranes in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar or Draw✗ Miss
70.8%
Avg Implied 60.7% · @ 1.51
Edge
+10.1%
48%
23%
29%
covers IBV Vestmannaeyjar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.57
888Sport
1.57
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.53
Betfair
1.53
IBV Vestmannaeyjar or IA Akranes✓ Hit
77.0%
Avg Implied 75.9% · @ 1.21
Edge
+1.2%
48%
23%
29%
covers IBV Vestmannaeyjar + IA Akranes
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
888Sport
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Draw or IA Akranes✓ Hit
52.1%
Avg Implied 63.4% · @ 1.45
Edge
-11.3%
48%
23%
29%
covers Draw + IA Akranes
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.50
SBO
1.50
William Hil
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.44
0.75
0.71
0.79
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.75
0.57
0.71
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.78
0.33
0.78
0.89
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (IA Akranes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IA Akranes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.89
0.33
0.58
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.25
0.75
0.25
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.50
0.93
0.36
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
1.06
0.62
0.50
0.93
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
0.75
0.86
0.71
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (18)
0.94
0.78
1.22
0.56
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (IA Akranes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IA Akranes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.07
0.89
0.78
1.42
1.50
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.12
0.86
0.71
1.00
1.70
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.50
-
-
3.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.6%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
77.0%
1.21
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
888Sport
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
70.8%
1.51
William Hil
1.57
888Sport
1.57
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.53
Betfair
1.53
+10.1%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
70.4%
1.41
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
888Sport
1.44
10Bet
1.42
+5.6%
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
70.1%
1.38
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.40
888Sport
1.40
William Hil
1.40
1xBet
1.37
+3.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
TA (21)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
IBV Vestmannaeyjar and IA Akranes have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
TA (7)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
IBV Vestmannaeyjar and IA Akranes have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
IBV Vestmannaeyjar and IA Akranes have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
IBV Vestmannaeyjar and IA Akranes have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →