IBV Vestmannaeyjar’s recent form has been shaky, with three straight defeats and a 0-1 loss to Thor Akureyri, while Stjarnan arrives on a two-game winning streak, having beaten Breidablik 2-0. The model therefore favours an away win, giving Stjarnan a 42% chance, a draw 24%, and IBV a 34% chance. The expected total of 3.6 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 9.7% probability. IBV’s home attack averages 0.75 goals and they concede 2.0 against stronger opposition; Stjarnan’s away attack averages 2.0 and they concede only 0.5 against weaker teams. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 with an 88.2% chance and BTTS Yes at 70.3%. These are the only selections offered, each with its own probability.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win, was denied as IBV Vestmannaeyjar claimed a 3-1 victory, extending their run of three straight defeats. The model had predicted an away win with a 42% probability, but the outcome proved wrong. The match saw 4 goals, exceeding the expected 3.6 and the most likely total of 3, which the model had assigned a 21% chance. The suggested picks over 1.5 goals and BTTS Yes both hit, with probabilities of 88.2% and 70.3% respectively. The final score of 3-1 confirmed a home win, overturning the model’s favourite.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
IBV Vestmannaeyjar win✓ Hit
34.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan win✗ Miss
41.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.44
2.00
1.22
1.56
1.67
2.44
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
2.14
0.75
2.00
1.33
2.33
vs Similar (11)
1.73
1.91
1.60
1.20
1.83
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
11% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stjarnan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.83
1.67
1.67
2.33
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
2.21
2.07
2.00
1.71
2.43
2.43
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
1.00
0.50
1.50
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
28% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.2%
Under 1.5
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.6%
Under 2.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
48.3%
Under 3.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
70.3%
No
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.7%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
7.5%
2-2
7.1%
1-3
5.3%
0-2
4.9%
2-3
4.5%
0-1
4.3%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals ↓
Stjarnan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.6%
4.3%
4.9%
3.1%
1.5%
1
3.8%
9.7%
8.4%
5.3%
2.5%
2
4.0%
7.5%
7.1%
4.5%
2.1%
3
2.3%
4.3%
4.1%
2.5%
1.2%
4
1.0%
1.8%
1.7%
1.1%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals (down), columns = Stjarnan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Breidablik
2.33
KA Akureyri
1.96
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.78
KR Reykjavik
1.41
Stjarnan
1.37
Keflavik
1.37
Valur Reykjavik
1.30
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.19
Fram Reykjavik
1.15
FH hafnarfjordur
0.93
IA Akranes
0.93
Leiknir R.
0.78
IBV Vestmannaeyjar is 0.19 points worse than Stjarnan in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.44
Breidablik
2.44
Keflavik
2.07
KA Akureyri
2.00
Fram Reykjavik
1.96
Valur Reykjavik
1.70
Stjarnan
1.63
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.59
KR Reykjavik
1.56
FH hafnarfjordur
1.33
IA Akranes
1.33
Leiknir R.
1.04
IBV Vestmannaeyjar is 0.04 goals worse than Stjarnan in terms of goals scored per game (1.59 vs 1.63).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Breidablik
1.00
KA Akureyri
1.11
KR Reykjavik
1.48
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.52
Valur Reykjavik
1.63
FH hafnarfjordur
1.70
Keflavik
1.78
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.85
Stjarnan
1.93
Fram Reykjavik
2.33
IA Akranes
2.33
Leiknir R.
2.44
IBV Vestmannaeyjar is 0.07 goals better than Stjarnan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.85 vs 1.93).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.00
0.78
0.78
0.89
1.22
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.86
0.25
0.75
1.33
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.91
1.09
1.20
0.80
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stjarnan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.06
1.06
0.67
1.00
1.44
1.11
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.21
1.14
0.86
0.86
1.57
1.43
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.75
0.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
44% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.61
1.00
0.44
0.78
0.78
1.22
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.29
0.50
1.25
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.82
0.40
0.40
1.17
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
22% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stjarnan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.94
0.78
1.00
0.67
0.89
0.89
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.93
1.14
0.86
0.86
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
44% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
IBV Vestmannaeyjar's squad is €1m less valuable than Stjarnan's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
IBV Vestmannaeyjar and Stjarnan have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
IBV Vestmannaeyjar and Stjarnan have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
LR (9)
€0m
IBV Vestmannaeyjar and Stjarnan have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Breidablik
KA Akureyri
Vikingur Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik
Keflavik
Valur Reykjavik
Fram Reykjavik
FH hafnarfjordur
IA Akranes
Leiknir R.