IBV Vestmannaeyjar are favoured to win at home, with a 47% chance of triumph, 28% for a draw and 25% for Stjarnan. The model expects 2.6 goals on average, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 13.4% probability. IBV have scored 1.4 goals per game and conceded 1.2 when facing stronger opposition at home, while Stjarnan, playing away against weaker teams, averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. The suggested selections are Under 3.5 goals at 74.3% and Over 1.5 goals at 73.9%. Recent form shows IBV struggling after three straight defeats, whereas Stjarnan are on a two-game winning streak. The match is likely to be a tight contest, but the odds favour the home side to edge out a victory.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, a home win, failed to materialise, with Stjarnan snatching a 0-2 victory. The model had given the home side a 47% chance of triumph, yet the result was an away win. The Pythia call was therefore wrong. The model’s other selections proved accurate: the Under 3.5 goal pick, with a 74.3% probability, hit, as did the Over 1.5 goal pick at 73.9%. The match finished 0-2, an away win, after IBV Vestmannaeyjar’s home form had slipped into a three-game losing streak, while Stjarnan rode a two-game winning run into the fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
IBV Vestmannaeyjar win✗ Miss
47.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan win✓ Hit
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.90
1.80
1.13
1.07
2.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
2.42
1.40
1.20
0.57
3.29
vs Similar (18)
1.78
1.56
2.00
1.10
1.50
2.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stjarnan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.83
2.47
1.53
0.87
2.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.36
1.95
1.90
1.60
0.92
2.25
vs Weaker (8)
2.50
1.50
3.60
1.40
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
20% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.9%
Under 1.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.3%
Under 2.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.7%
Under 3.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.9%
No
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.3%
2-0
8.9%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
6.8%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
4.9%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals ↓
Stjarnan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
6.8%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
1
10%
13%
6.4%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.9%
9.3%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
3
4.5%
4.7%
2.5%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.7%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals (down), columns = Stjarnan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.44
Valur Reykjavik
2.04
Stjarnan
1.70
KA Akureyri
1.52
Breidablik
1.52
FH hafnarfjordur
1.48
KR Reykjavik
1.37
Fylkir
1.07
HK Kopavogur
1.00
Fram Reykjavik
1.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.93
Keflavik
0.59
IBV Vestmannaeyjar is 0.78 points worse than Stjarnan in terms of average points per game (0.93 vs 1.70).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.81
Valur Reykjavik
2.44
Stjarnan
2.04
Breidablik
1.93
FH hafnarfjordur
1.81
Fylkir
1.59
KA Akureyri
1.56
HK Kopavogur
1.52
Fram Reykjavik
1.48
KR Reykjavik
1.41
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.15
Keflavik
1.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar is 0.89 goals worse than Stjarnan in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 2.04).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stjarnan
1.07
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.11
Valur Reykjavik
1.30
KA Akureyri
1.67
KR Reykjavik
1.78
Breidablik
1.81
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.85
FH hafnarfjordur
2.00
Keflavik
2.00
HK Kopavogur
2.04
Fylkir
2.04
Fram Reykjavik
2.07
IBV Vestmannaeyjar is 0.78 goals worse than Stjarnan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.85 vs 1.07).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
1.07
0.47
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.00
0.60
0.60
0.43
1.29
vs Similar (18)
1.06
0.50
1.30
0.40
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stjarnan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.97
1.07
0.80
0.20
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.45
1.00
0.80
0.80
0.17
1.17
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.88
1.60
0.80
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.20
0.73
0.67
0.47
1.73
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.42
0.80
0.60
0.14
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.72
1.06
0.70
0.70
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stjarnan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.87
1.40
0.73
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.95
1.10
0.80
0.75
1.08
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.62
2.00
0.60
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
IBV Vestmannaeyjar's squad is €1m less valuable than Stjarnan's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
IBV Vestmannaeyjar and Stjarnan have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
IBV Vestmannaeyjar and Stjarnan have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
FYL (6)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
IBV Vestmannaeyjar and Stjarnan have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vikingur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik
Breidablik
KA Akureyri
FH hafnarfjordur
KR Reykjavik
Fylkir
HK Kopavogur
Fram Reykjavik
Keflavik