The contest between IBV Vestmannaeyjar and Stjarnan is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win at 35%. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly open match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14% probability. IBV’s home form shows they average 0.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded against stronger opponents, while Stjarnan, playing away against weaker sides, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 35% for a home win, 29% for a draw, and 35% for an away win. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 with a 75.3% chance, and Over 1.5 with a 73.0% chance. The home side’s recent run of LLLDL after a 0-1 loss to Thor Akureyri contrasts with Stjarnan’s 2-game winning streak, ending with a 2-0 victory over Breidablik. All figures are drawn directly from the data.
Results analysis
The win extends IBV Vestmannaeyjar’s run after three straight defeats, ending 1-0 at home. The model’s pre-match favourite was a Home win with a 35% probability, and this call proved correct. The most likely score was 1-1 at 14%, yet the match settled for the predicted 1-0 result. The suggested picks were Under 3.5 goals at 75.3% probability, which hit, and Over 1.5 goals at 73.0%, which missed. The model’s total-goals expectation of 2.5 was close to the 1-goal outcome, and the home side’s form against stronger opponents and the away side’s better away record both played into the final result.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
IBV Vestmannaeyjar win✓ Hit
35.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan win✗ Miss
35.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.63
1.64
1.14
1.75
2.06
vs Stronger (10)
1.30
1.40
0.60
0.60
2.00
2.20
vs Similar (20)
1.90
1.75
2.22
1.44
1.64
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stjarnan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.80
2.31
1.94
2.07
1.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
2.30
1.90
2.30
2.00
2.30
1.80
vs Weaker (10)
2.00
1.60
2.33
1.83
1.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
20% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.2%
Under 2.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.7%
Under 3.5
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.6%
No
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-0
9.3%
1-0 ✓
8.9%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
8.0%
2-0
6.4%
0-2
6.4%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals ↓
Stjarnan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
8.8%
6.4%
2.7%
0.8%
1
8.9%
14%
8.0%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.4%
8.1%
5.1%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.7%
3.4%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.9%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IBV Vestmannaeyjar goals (down), columns = Stjarnan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.11
Valur Reykjavik
1.67
Stjarnan
1.56
Breidablik
1.56
KA Akureyri
1.44
Fram Reykjavik
1.33
IA Akranes
1.26
FH hafnarfjordur
1.22
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.22
KR Reykjavik
1.15
Vestri
1.07
Afturelding
1.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar is 0.33 points worse than Stjarnan in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.56).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Valur Reykjavik
2.26
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.15
KR Reykjavik
2.04
Stjarnan
1.85
FH hafnarfjordur
1.81
Breidablik
1.70
KA Akureyri
1.67
Fram Reykjavik
1.52
IA Akranes
1.37
Afturelding
1.33
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.26
Vestri
0.96
IBV Vestmannaeyjar is 0.59 goals worse than Stjarnan in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.85).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.15
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.37
Fram Reykjavik
1.48
Breidablik
1.56
Vestri
1.63
Stjarnan
1.67
Valur Reykjavik
1.70
FH hafnarfjordur
1.70
Afturelding
1.70
KA Akureyri
1.81
IA Akranes
1.85
KR Reykjavik
2.30
IBV Vestmannaeyjar is 0.30 goals better than Stjarnan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.37 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
0.79
0.50
0.88
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
0.80
0.00
0.40
1.60
1.20
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.75
1.22
0.56
0.55
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stjarnan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
1.12
1.00
0.86
0.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.05
0.60
1.10
0.90
1.00
0.30
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.70
1.17
1.17
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
0.86
0.64
0.88
0.69
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.20
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.05
0.70
1.00
0.89
1.09
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stjarnan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.17
1.19
0.94
1.21
1.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.30
1.50
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
0.90
1.17
0.67
1.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
33% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (IBV Vestmannaeyjar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
IBV Vestmannaeyjar's squad is €1m less valuable than Stjarnan's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
AFT (5)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
VES (7)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
IBV Vestmannaeyjar and Stjarnan have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
IBV Vestmannaeyjar and Stjarnan have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
AFT (7)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
IBV Vestmannaeyjar and Stjarnan have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vikingur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik
Breidablik
KA Akureyri
Fram Reykjavik
IA Akranes
FH hafnarfjordur
KR Reykjavik
Vestri
Afturelding