IF Elfsborg are favoured to win, with a 58 % chance of triumph, 23 % for a draw and 19 % for Degerfors IF. The match is expected to see about 3.1 goals, yet the most likely total is 2, with a 23 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 10.8 % chance. Elfsborg, playing at home against a weaker side, normally score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals, while Degerfors, away against a stronger opponent, average 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.2 %), Under 7.5 (98.5 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.1 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5 %), Under 6.5 (96.0 % with a 4 % edge), Away under 1.5 HT goals (93.2 % with a 3 % edge), Home +2 handicap (92.7 %), and Home under 2.5 HT goals (91.7 % with a 1 % edge). The home side’s recent form shows a draw after a strong run, while the away side comes off a defeat.
Results analysis
IF Elfsborg’s unbeaten run in the last five matches extended with a 2-0 victory over Degerfors IF, confirming the model’s prediction of a home win. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 57% probability, and the model’s call proved correct. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.5%, Under 7.5 hit at 98.6%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.1%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.4%, Under 6.5 hit at 96.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 94.6%, Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 93.0%, and Home +2 handicap hit at 92.4%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
IF Elfsborg winâś“ Hit
57.3%
Avg Implied 60.6% · @ 1.53
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Drawâś— Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied 23.4% · @ 3.96
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.18
Dafabet
4.10
Superbet
4.10
Betfair
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
Degerfors IF winâś— Miss
19.4%
Avg Implied 16.0% · @ 5.80
Edge
+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
6.25
Pinnacle
6.18
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Dafabet
6.00
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
IF Elfsborg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.33
1.80
1.27
1.07
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.26
1.52
1.69
1.31
0.70
1.80
vs Weaker (7)
2.00
0.71
2.50
1.00
1.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Degerfors IF) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Degerfors IF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.40
1.00
1.27
1.60
1.53
vs Stronger (15)
0.93
1.53
0.60
1.50
1.60
1.60
vs Similar (15)
1.67
1.27
1.80
0.80
1.60
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (IF Elfsborg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.7%
@ 1.25+7.9%
Under 1.5
17.3%
@ 3.68-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
3.95
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.1%
@ 1.82+8.5%
Under 2.5
39.9%
@ 1.95-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.87
SBO
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
SBO
1.96
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.7%
@ 2.99+6.6%
Under 3.5
62.3%
@ 1.35-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Pinnacle
3.06
Superbet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.8%
@ 1.86+8.9%
No
41.2%
@ 1.85-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
Betfair
1.90
Superbet
1.90
Unibet
1.87
Betano
1.85
No
William Hil
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.87
Betfair
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%@ 7.21+4.7%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.54+4.0%
2-0 âś“
9.0%@ 6.97+2.6%
1-0
8.0%@ 6.37+1.0%
3-1
6.6%@ 11.70+2.8%
3-0
6.0%@ 10.53+1.8%
2-2
5.5%@ 15.55+2.6%
1-2
5.5%@ 16.15+2.7%
IF Elfsborg goals ↓
Degerfors IF goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
3.9%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
1
8.0%
11%
5.5%
2.0%
0.6%
2
9.0%
9.9%
5.5%
2.0%
0.6%
3
6.0%
6.6%
3.7%
1.3%
0.4%
4
3.0%
3.3%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IF Elfsborg goals (down), columns = Degerfors IF goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sirius
2.21
Hammarby FF
1.89
Djurgardens IF
1.84
AIK Stockholm
1.72
BK Hacken
1.63
IF Elfsborg
1.63
Malmo FF
1.53
Vasteras SK FK
1.53
Gais
1.37
IF Brommapojkarna
1.26
IFK Goteborg
1.21
Mjallby AIF
1.11
Kalmar FF
1.00
Degerfors IF
0.84
Orgryte IS
0.74
Halmstad
0.58
IF Elfsborg is 0.79 points better than Degerfors IF in terms of average points per game (1.63 vs 0.84).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sirius
2.47
Hammarby FF
2.32
Djurgardens IF
2.26
BK Hacken
1.74
Malmo FF
1.74
AIK Stockholm
1.56
Vasteras SK FK
1.47
IF Elfsborg
1.42
IF Brommapojkarna
1.42
Mjallby AIF
1.33
Gais
1.32
IFK Goteborg
1.26
Orgryte IS
1.16
Kalmar FF
1.11
Degerfors IF
0.89
Halmstad
0.68
IF Elfsborg is 0.53 goals better than Degerfors IF in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Gais
0.95
Hammarby FF
0.95
IF Elfsborg
1.00
Djurgardens IF
1.00
Sirius
1.42
AIK Stockholm
1.50
BK Hacken
1.53
Kalmar FF
1.53
Malmo FF
1.58
Mjallby AIF
1.61
IF Brommapojkarna
1.63
Degerfors IF
1.63
Vasteras SK FK
1.74
Halmstad
1.84
IFK Goteborg
2.05
Orgryte IS
2.21
IF Elfsborg is 0.63 goals better than Degerfors IF in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hammarby FF
61%
Djurgardens IF
56%
Malmo FF
56%
Mjallby AIF
53%
BK Hacken
52%
AIK Stockholm
52%
IFK Goteborg
51%
Gais
50%
Sirius
48%
IF Elfsborg
48%
Vasteras SK FK
48%
Kalmar FF
47%
IF Brommapojkarna
47%
Degerfors IF
46%
Orgryte IS
43%
Halmstad
41%
IF Elfsborg is 1.8 percentage points better than Degerfors IF in terms of average possession (48% vs 46%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
IF Elfsborg or Drawâś“ Hit
80.6%
Avg Implied 83.5% · @ 1.12
Edge
-2.9%
57%
23%
19%
covers IF Elfsborg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.15
BetVictor
1.14
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
10Bet
1.12
IF Elfsborg or Degerfors IFâś“ Hit
76.7%
Avg Implied 77.1% · @ 1.21
Edge
-0.4%
57%
23%
19%
covers IF Elfsborg + Degerfors IF
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Draw or Degerfors IFâś— Miss
42.7%
Avg Implied 39.4% · @ 2.37
Edge
+3.3%
57%
23%
19%
covers Draw + Degerfors IF
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.50
Betano
2.47
1xBet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.40
10Bet
2.38
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
IF Elfsborg over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.6%
@ 1.12+3.5%
Under
13.4%
@ 5.49-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Under
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Superbet
5.45
IF Elfsborg over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
59.6%
@ 1.65+3.2%
Under
40.4%
@ 2.14-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
Under
Pinnacle
2.26
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.17
1xBet
2.13
Betano
2.12
IF Elfsborg over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
32.5%
@ 3.03+1.9%
Under
67.5%
@ 1.34-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.14
Superbet
3.05
1xBet
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Under
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
10Bet
1.33
IF Elfsborg over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
14.4%
@ 6.27-0.5%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.09+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.50
Superbet
6.30
Marathonbet
6.10
Betfair
6.00
Under
Betano
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Degerfors IF over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
66.8%
@ 1.62+9.6%
Under
33.2%
@ 2.17-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.29
Betano
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.15
Degerfors IF over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
30.2%
@ 4.08+7.4%
Under
69.8%
@ 1.21-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Superbet
4.15
BetVictor
4.10
Under
1xBet
1.24
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Degerfors IF over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.0%
@ 11.87+2.0%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.03-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Marathonbet
12.25
1xBet
12.20
Superbet
12.00
Betfair
10.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Degerfors IF over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 40.50-97.4%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to IF Elfsborg, so a minus line means IF Elfsborg give that many goals of a start and Degerfors IF receive them. At -1, IF Elfsborg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal IF Elfsborg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (IF Elfsborg)Actual: Draw
IF Elfsborg -2
17.3%
@ 4.72-1.8%
Draw -2
17.7%
@ 4.46-2.4%
Degerfors IF +2
65.0%
@ 1.48+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.65
Unibet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.55
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Away
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Unibet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Handicap -1 (IF Elfsborg)Actual: IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg -1
35.0%
@ 2.45-1.4%
Draw -1
22.3%
@ 3.42-3.8%
Degerfors IF +1
42.7%
@ 2.38+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.45
Unibet
2.43
Marathonbet
2.42
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Superbet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Away
Betfair
2.40
Marathonbet
2.40
10Bet
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Superbet
2.37
Handicap +1 (IF Elfsborg)Actual: IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg +1
80.6%
@ 1.13+1.9%
Draw +1
11.8%
@ 6.54-1.8%
Degerfors IF -1
7.6%
@ 11.57-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
6.75
Superbet
6.70
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Unibet
12.00
Marathonbet
7.30
Handicap +2 (IF Elfsborg)Actual: IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg +2
92.4%
@ 1.03-0.2%
Draw +2
5.4%
@ 19.00+0.3%
Degerfors IF -2
2.2%
@ 41.00-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Draw
Bet365
19.00
Away
Bet365
41.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
IF Elfsborg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.47
0.67
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.65
0.46
0.62
0.40
0.70
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.43
0.50
1.00
0.80
0.20
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Degerfors IF) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Degerfors IF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.33
0.60
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
0.67
0.10
0.70
0.60
0.60
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.53
0.80
0.40
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (IF Elfsborg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
71.4%
@ 1.35+2.3%
Under 0.5
28.6%
@ 3.02-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Under
Pinnacle
3.21
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.10
William Hil
3.10
10Bet
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.5%
@ 2.60-1.2%
Under 1.5
65.5%
@ 1.44+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.75
Pinnacle
2.71
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
Under
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.9%
@ 6.46-0.5%
Under 2.5
86.1%
@ 1.08+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
7.00
William Hil
6.50
1xBet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IF Elfsborg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
56.4%
@ 1.63-0.6%
Under
43.6%
@ 2.16+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.27
10Bet
2.20
Superbet
2.17
1xBet
2.16
Unibet
2.15
IF Elfsborg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
21.1%
@ 4.03-1.9%
Under
78.9%
@ 1.20+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.25
Betano
4.10
1xBet
4.00
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.90
Under
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
IF Elfsborg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 10.08-3.9%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.03+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Degerfors IF over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
37.0%
@ 2.85+4.5%
Under
63.0%
@ 1.37-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.10
Betano
2.92
Unibet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.84
Superbet
2.82
Under
1xBet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
Degerfors IF over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 10.50-1.9%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.03+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
11.00
10Bet
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Degerfors IF over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 50.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
50.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
IF Elfsborg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
1.33
0.60
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.87
1.23
0.69
0.30
1.10
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.29
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Degerfors IF) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Degerfors IF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
0.67
0.67
1.07
0.93
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
0.87
0.50
0.80
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
1.07
0.73
1.00
0.40
1.10
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (IF Elfsborg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.0%
@ 1.21+4.1%
Under 0.5
19.0%
@ 4.02-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
Under
Betano
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
46.9%
@ 2.02+0.6%
Under 1.5
53.1%
@ 1.74-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.05
Unibet
2.04
Superbet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Under
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Superbet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.4%
@ 4.20+0.2%
Under 2.5
77.6%
@ 1.20-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Under
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IF Elfsborg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
66.8%
@ 1.44+2.5%
Under
33.2%
@ 2.60-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Under
Betano
2.67
1xBet
2.60
Superbet
2.57
10Bet
2.55
IF Elfsborg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
26.9%
@ 3.05-3.5%
Under
73.1%
@ 1.33+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.20
Superbet
3.10
1xBet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Betano
2.95
Under
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
IF Elfsborg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.9%
@ 7.55-3.4%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.06+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
8.00
1xBet
7.90
Superbet
7.70
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Degerfors IF over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
41.2%
@ 2.34+1.5%
Under
58.8%
@ 1.54-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.38
Superbet
2.37
Marathonbet
2.35
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.30
Under
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.55
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Degerfors IF over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.1%
@ 8.02-1.4%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.05+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.70
1xBet
8.20
Superbet
8.10
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Degerfors IF over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 22.25-2.4%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
32.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
âś“ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 6.5
96.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+0.5%
âś“ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+3.9%
âś“ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+1.9%
âś“ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-0.2%
âś“ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.1%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-
+3.4%
âś“ Hit
Under 5.5
90.5%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-0.9%
âś“ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-2.0%
âś“ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.9%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+1.4%
âś“ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
86.6%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.12
+3.5%
âś“ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.1%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.08
+0.5%
âś“ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
85.6%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.07
+0.5%
âś“ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 1.5
82.7%
1.25
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
+7.9%
âś“ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.0%
1.21
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
+4.1%
âś“ Hit
Home or Draw
80.6%
1.12
Betano
1.15
BetVictor
1.14
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
10Bet
1.12
-2.9%
âś“ Hit
Home +1 handicap
80.6%
1.13
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
-
+1.9%
âś“ Hit
Under 4.5
79.6%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.13
-3.9%
âś“ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
78.9%
1.20
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
+1.9%
âś“ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.6%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
-0.2%
âś“ Hit
Home or Away
76.7%
1.21
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
-0.4%
âś“ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
73.1%
1.33
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
+3.5%
âś“ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.0%
1.43
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.41
Unibet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
+8.8%
âś— Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.4%
1.35
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
+2.3%
âś“ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (28)
€35m
HF (22)
€35m
SIR (24)
€28m
DI (22)
€27m
MA (24)
€26m
AS (27)
€21m
IG (25)
€18m
IE (26)
€17m
BH (22)
€16m
GAI (29)
€13m
KF (21)
€10m
VSF (24)
€10m
IB (25)
€9m
HAL (20)
€8m
OI (26)
€8m
DI (23)
€6m
IF Elfsborg's squad is €11m more valuable than Degerfors IF's (€17m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SIR (10)
€18m
HF (9)
€13m
MF (8)
€12m
IG (9)
€8m
AS (7)
€8m
DI (6)
€8m
MA (9)
€7m
BH (4)
€6m
IE (9)
€5m
GAI (10)
€5m
KF (8)
€4m
HAL (7)
€4m
IB (10)
€3m
VSF (8)
€3m
OI (7)
€2m
DI (5)
€1m
IF Elfsborg's attack is €4m more valuable than Degerfors IF's (€5m vs €1m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DI (6)
€14m
HF (4)
€11m
MF (7)
€11m
MA (6)
€11m
AS (9)
€7m
SIR (5)
€5m
IE (5)
€4m
IG (4)
€3m
GAI (8)
€3m
BH (6)
€3m
VSF (6)
€3m
DI (7)
€3m
KF (5)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
IB (4)
€2m
HAL (4)
€1m
IF Elfsborg's midfield is €1m more valuable than Degerfors IF's (€4m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (13)
€12m
HF (9)
€10m
MA (9)
€8m
IE (12)
€7m
BH (12)
€7m
DI (10)
€6m
AS (11)
€6m
IG (12)
€6m
GAI (11)
€5m
OI (12)
€4m
SIR (9)
€4m
IB (11)
€4m
VSF (10)
€4m
KF (8)
€3m
HAL (9)
€3m
DI (11)
€3m
IF Elfsborg's defence is €5m more valuable than Degerfors IF's (€7m vs €3m).
Sweden: Allsvenskan 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Allsvenskan stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sirius
Hammarby FF
Djurgardens IF
BK Hacken
AIK Stockholm
Malmo FF
Vasteras SK FK
Gais
IF Brommapojkarna
IFK Goteborg
Mjallby AIF
Kalmar FF
Orgryte IS
Halmstad