IF Elfsborg hosts Vasteras SK FK in a Sweden: Allsvenskan match on August 14, 2026. The home side has been on a 2-game winning run, with a 1-0 victory over Mjallby AIF in their last outing. Vasteras SK FK, however, is coming off a 0-6 defeat to Djurgardens IF. The model predicts a Home win, with a 58% probability, making it the favourite match result. The probability of a draw is 22%, while the away win is 20%.
The expected total goals is 3.4, with the most likely total goals being 3. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 9.6%. IF Elfsborg has averaged 1.12 goals scored and 1.75 conceded at home, while Vasteras SK FK has averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded away from home against similar opponents.
The model suggests Over 1.5 as its selection, with an 86.7% probability, and a 12% edge. The probabilities for the home win, draw, and away win are 58%, 22%, and 20% respectively.
Results analysis
IF Elfsborg's 3-game winning streak continues, with a convincing 3-0 victory at home against Vasteras SK FK. The win extends their run of form, which has seen them secure three wins and three losses in their last five matches. The model correctly predicted a home win, with a pre-match probability of 58%. The model's selection, a home win, proved correct. The suggested picks largely came in, with 'Over 1.5' goals hitting, having been selected with a probability of 86.7%.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
IF Elfsborg winâś“ Hit
57.6%
Avg Implied 54.6% · @ 1.71
Edge
+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.86
Superbet
1.85
SBO
1.82
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Drawâś— Miss
22.0%
Avg Implied 24.5% · @ 3.81
Edge
-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
1xBet
3.92
Vasteras SK FK winâś— Miss
20.4%
Avg Implied 20.9% · @ 4.45
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.75
Pinnacle
4.74
Betano
4.70
Unibet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
IF Elfsborg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.47
1.67
1.40
0.80
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.14
1.68
1.58
1.42
0.60
2.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.50
0.88
2.00
1.33
1.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasteras SK FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vasteras SK FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.33
2.20
1.00
1.67
1.67
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
-
-
1.50
2.50
vs Similar (25)
1.88
1.32
2.08
1.08
1.67
1.58
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.67
3.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (IF Elfsborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.7%
@ 1.21+9.7%
Under 1.5
13.3%
@ 4.05-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.34
Betfair
4.33
BetVictor
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.9%
@ 1.69+11.5%
Under 2.5
33.1%
@ 2.11-11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.72
SBO
1.71
Pinnacle
1.71
Bet365
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.19
Betfair
2.15
SBO
2.14
1xBet
2.13
Marathonbet
2.13
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.2%
@ 2.70+10.8%
Under 3.5
54.8%
@ 1.42-10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.88
Pinnacle
2.77
888Sport
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.5%
@ 1.66+8.8%
No
35.5%
@ 2.09-8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.70
Betano
1.70
Betfair
1.67
10Bet
1.67
888Sport
1.67
No
Betfair
2.15
Superbet
2.15
888Sport
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.7%@ 7.01+3.2%
2-1
9.6%@ 7.49+3.6%
2-0
7.6%@ 8.41+2.3%
3-1
7.0%@ 12.04+3.3%
1-0
6.1%@ 7.50+0.1%
2-2
6.0%@ 13.07+2.6%
3-0 âś“
5.6%@ 13.01+2.1%
1-2
5.5%@ 13.15+2.1%
IF Elfsborg goals ↓
Vasteras SK FK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
3.1%
2.5%
1.1%
0.3%
1
6.1%
9.7%
5.5%
2.3%
0.7%
2
7.6%
9.6%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
3
5.6%
7.0%
4.4%
1.8%
0.6%
4
3.0%
3.8%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IF Elfsborg goals (down), columns = Vasteras SK FK goals (across).
Advertisement
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sirius
2.21
Hammarby FF
1.89
Djurgardens IF
1.84
AIK Stockholm
1.72
BK Hacken
1.63
IF Elfsborg
1.63
Malmo FF
1.53
Vasteras SK FK
1.53
Gais
1.37
IF Brommapojkarna
1.26
IFK Goteborg
1.21
Mjallby AIF
1.11
Kalmar FF
1.00
Degerfors IF
0.84
Orgryte IS
0.74
Halmstad
0.58
IF Elfsborg is 0.11 points better than Vasteras SK FK in terms of average points per game (1.63 vs 1.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sirius
2.47
Hammarby FF
2.32
Djurgardens IF
2.26
BK Hacken
1.74
Malmo FF
1.74
AIK Stockholm
1.56
Vasteras SK FK
1.47
IF Elfsborg
1.42
IF Brommapojkarna
1.42
Mjallby AIF
1.33
Gais
1.32
IFK Goteborg
1.26
Orgryte IS
1.16
Kalmar FF
1.11
Degerfors IF
0.89
Halmstad
0.68
IF Elfsborg is 0.05 goals worse than Vasteras SK FK in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Gais
0.95
Hammarby FF
0.95
IF Elfsborg
1.00
Djurgardens IF
1.00
Sirius
1.42
AIK Stockholm
1.50
BK Hacken
1.53
Kalmar FF
1.53
Malmo FF
1.58
Mjallby AIF
1.61
IF Brommapojkarna
1.63
Degerfors IF
1.63
Vasteras SK FK
1.74
Halmstad
1.84
IFK Goteborg
2.05
Orgryte IS
2.21
IF Elfsborg is 0.74 goals better than Vasteras SK FK in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.74).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hammarby FF
61%
Djurgardens IF
56%
Malmo FF
56%
Mjallby AIF
53%
BK Hacken
52%
AIK Stockholm
52%
IFK Goteborg
51%
Gais
50%
Sirius
48%
IF Elfsborg
48%
Vasteras SK FK
48%
Kalmar FF
47%
IF Brommapojkarna
47%
Degerfors IF
46%
Orgryte IS
43%
Halmstad
41%
IF Elfsborg is 0.4 percentage points better than Vasteras SK FK in terms of average possession (48% vs 48%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
IF Elfsborg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.63
0.40
0.73
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.68
0.42
0.67
0.40
0.70
vs Weaker (8)
0.38
0.50
0.33
1.00
0.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasteras SK FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vasteras SK FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
0.87
0.53
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.64
0.85
0.54
0.83
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (IF Elfsborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IF Elfsborg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IF Elfsborg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IF Elfsborg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasteras SK FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasteras SK FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasteras SK FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
IF Elfsborg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.83
1.27
0.67
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.73
1.00
1.17
0.75
0.20
1.30
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.38
1.67
0.33
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasteras SK FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vasteras SK FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.73
1.33
0.47
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
-
-
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.04
0.68
1.23
0.54
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (IF Elfsborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IF Elfsborg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IF Elfsborg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IF Elfsborg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasteras SK FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasteras SK FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasteras SK FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.7%
1.21
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
+9.7%
âś“ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (28)
€35m
HF (22)
€35m
SIR (24)
€28m
DI (22)
€27m
MA (24)
€26m
AS (27)
€21m
IG (25)
€18m
IE (26)
€17m
BH (22)
€16m
GAI (29)
€13m
KF (21)
€10m
VSF (24)
€10m
IB (25)
€9m
HAL (20)
€8m
OI (26)
€8m
DI (23)
€6m
IF Elfsborg's squad is €7m more valuable than Vasteras SK FK's (€17m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SIR (10)
€18m
HF (9)
€13m
MF (8)
€12m
IG (9)
€8m
AS (7)
€8m
DI (6)
€8m
MA (9)
€7m
BH (4)
€6m
IE (9)
€5m
GAI (10)
€5m
KF (8)
€4m
HAL (7)
€4m
IB (10)
€3m
VSF (8)
€3m
OI (7)
€2m
DI (5)
€1m
IF Elfsborg's attack is €2m more valuable than Vasteras SK FK's (€5m vs €3m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DI (6)
€14m
HF (4)
€11m
MF (7)
€11m
MA (6)
€11m
AS (9)
€7m
SIR (5)
€5m
IE (5)
€4m
IG (4)
€3m
GAI (8)
€3m
BH (6)
€3m
VSF (6)
€3m
DI (7)
€3m
KF (5)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
IB (4)
€2m
HAL (4)
€1m
IF Elfsborg's midfield is €1m more valuable than Vasteras SK FK's (€4m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (13)
€12m
HF (9)
€10m
MA (9)
€8m
IE (12)
€7m
BH (12)
€7m
DI (10)
€6m
AS (11)
€6m
IG (12)
€6m
GAI (11)
€5m
OI (12)
€4m
SIR (9)
€4m
IB (11)
€4m
VSF (10)
€4m
KF (8)
€3m
HAL (9)
€3m
DI (11)
€3m
IF Elfsborg's defence is €4m more valuable than Vasteras SK FK's (€7m vs €4m).
Sweden: Allsvenskan 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Allsvenskan stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sirius
Hammarby FF
Djurgardens IF
BK Hacken
AIK Stockholm
Malmo FF
Gais
IF Brommapojkarna
IFK Goteborg
Mjallby AIF
Kalmar FF
Degerfors IF
Orgryte IS
Halmstad