This Turkey: 1. Lig match between Iðr FK and Kayserispor is shaping up to be a finely balanced contest, with Iðr FK coming off a win against Fatih Karagümrük, while Kayserispor has been on a 2-game winning run. Iðr FK has a 41% chance of winning at home, with a 28% chance of an away win for Kayserispor. The most likely match result is a home win for Iðr FK, with an expected total of 2.3 goals.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.5% chance. Iðr FK has scored an average of 1 goal at home, conceding 1.09, while Kayserispor has scored 0.88 away, conceding 1.38. The model's selection is the Under 3.5, with an 80.6% chance.
The home win percentage is 41%, the draw percentage is 31%, and the away win percentage is 28%. The model's other selections include the Under 3.5 at 80.6%, and the model's pick is a Home win.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win with a 41 % probability, did not materialise as Iğdır FK fell 0-1 to Kayserispor, ending a run of two straight defeats. The model’s call was wrong. The final score was 0-1, an away win. The model’s selection of “Under 7.5” goals hit, as did “Under 6.5”, “Away under 2.5 HT goals”, “Away under 3.5 goals”, “Away under 2.5 2H goals”, “Under 5.5”, “Home under 2.5 HT goals” and “Home under 3.5 goals”. Each hit was recorded with its probability: 99.8 %, 99.1 %, 98.9 %, 98.0 %, 97.8 %, 97.2 %, 96.3 % and 96.1 % respectively. The upset underlined the volatility of the league, with Kayserispor’s four-game winning streak proving decisive.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Iğdır FK win✗ Miss
40.7%
Avg Implied 33.5% · @ 2.72
Edge
+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.85
Pinnacle
2.80
Dafabet
2.80
William Hil
2.80
Superbet
2.77
Draw✗ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied 28.7% · @ 3.18
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.43
Betfair
3.25
William Hil
3.25
Marathonbet
3.22
1xBet
3.22
Kayserispor win✓ Hit
28.3%
Avg Implied 37.8% · @ 2.42
Edge
-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.50
Dafabet
2.50
Superbet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
BetVictor
2.45
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Iğdır FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.33
1.73
1.33
1.13
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.43
1.33
1.73
1.33
1.13
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Kayserispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kayserispor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.50
1.07
1.47
0.73
1.53
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
2.67
0.50
3.25
0.60
2.20
vs Similar (21)
1.05
1.00
1.27
0.82
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Iğdır FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.5%
@ 1.31-3.1%
Under 1.5
32.5%
@ 3.15+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Superbet
3.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.6%
@ 1.99-7.1%
Under 2.5
60.4%
@ 1.74+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.06
Bet365
2.05
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Marathonbet
1.99
Under
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
Superbet
1.75
Bet365
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.4%
@ 3.47-7.2%
Under 3.5
80.6%
@ 1.26+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.62
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.42
Under
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.8%
@ 1.76-5.6%
No
53.2%
@ 1.94+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
No
Betano
1.98
BetVictor
1.95
Betfair
1.95
Superbet
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%@ 5.75+6.8%
1-0
11.7%@ 7.87+6.1%
0-0
11.7%@ 8.37+6.4%
0-1 ✓
9.1%@ 7.28+3.1%
2-1
8.3%@ 9.35+3.6%
2-0
8.2%@ 12.62+4.7%
1-2
6.6%@ 8.64+1.5%
0-2
5.3%@ 11.16+1.3%
Iğdır FK goals ↓
Kayserispor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.1%
5.3%
1.8%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.6%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.2%
8.3%
4.2%
1.4%
0.4%
3
3.4%
3.5%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.1%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Iğdır FK goals (down), columns = Kayserispor goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Esenler Erokspor
1.90
Bodrum FK
1.71
Kayserispor
1.62
Pendikspor
1.62
Antalyaspor
1.61
Bandırmaspor
1.58
Bursaspor
1.56
Keçiörengücü
1.54
Fatih Karagümrük
1.50
Manisa F.K.
1.45
Sarıyer
1.37
İstanbulspor
1.37
Sivasspor
1.35
Batman Petrolspor
1.35
Iğdır FK
1.32
Vanspor FK
1.29
Boluspor
1.26
Mardin 1969
1.26
Muğlaspor
1.24
Ümraniyespor
1.21
Iğdır FK is 0.30 points worse than Kayserispor in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Esenler Erokspor
2.08
Keçiörengücü
1.87
Bodrum FK
1.80
Kayserispor
1.72
Antalyaspor
1.72
Bursaspor
1.66
Boluspor
1.61
Fatih Karagümrük
1.60
İstanbulspor
1.50
Manisa F.K.
1.50
Pendikspor
1.49
Batman Petrolspor
1.43
Iğdır FK
1.37
Vanspor FK
1.37
Mardin 1969
1.34
Muğlaspor
1.32
Bandırmaspor
1.24
Ümraniyespor
1.24
Sivasspor
1.19
Sarıyer
1.16
Iğdır FK is 0.35 goals worse than Kayserispor in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 1.72).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bandırmaspor
0.89
Pendikspor
0.90
Esenler Erokspor
0.95
Bodrum FK
1.00
Keçiörengücü
1.13
Sarıyer
1.16
Sivasspor
1.16
Vanspor FK
1.24
Kayserispor
1.24
Antalyaspor
1.25
Bursaspor
1.29
Fatih Karagümrük
1.34
Ümraniyespor
1.34
Iğdır FK
1.42
İstanbulspor
1.45
Manisa F.K.
1.47
Batman Petrolspor
1.49
Boluspor
1.50
Mardin 1969
1.59
Muğlaspor
1.62
Iğdır FK is 0.18 goals worse than Kayserispor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Esenler Erokspor
58%
Boluspor
57%
Iğdır FK
56%
Vanspor FK
55%
Pendikspor
52%
Sivasspor
50%
Bodrum FK
49%
İstanbulspor
48%
Sarıyer
48%
Keçiörengücü
48%
Ümraniyespor
47%
Manisa F.K.
46%
Bandırmaspor
45%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Iğdır FK
For 3.9 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 11.3 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kayserispor
For 5.9 · Against 3.5 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 12.3 · Total 25.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Iğdır FK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.7
8.0
4.2
4.4
3.9
23.8
23.5
24.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (49)
8.7
9.7
7.7
4.2
4.4
3.9
23.8
23.5
24.0
vs Weaker (1)
15.0
-
15.0
4.0
-
4.0
27.0
-
27.0
% over line
43%
59%
27%
60%
64%
56%
61%
59%
64%
% under line
57%
41%
73%
40%
36%
44%
39%
41%
36%
This opponent (Kayserispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kayserispor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.0
10.0
4.2
4.2
4.2
25.0
25.2
24.7
vs Stronger (18)
11.1
11.0
11.1
4.2
4.5
4.0
24.2
25.5
23.1
vs Similar (32)
9.4
9.6
9.2
4.2
4.1
4.3
25.4
25.1
25.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
67%
58%
66%
68%
64%
75%
75%
75%
% under line
38%
33%
42%
34%
32%
36%
25%
25%
25%
This opponent (Iğdır FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mardin 1969
10.0
Kayserispor
10.0
Sivasspor
9.6
Bandırmaspor
9.3
Antalyaspor
9.3
Bodrum FK
9.2
Bursaspor
9.1
Iğdır FK
9.0
Ümraniyespor
8.9
Fatih Karagümrük
8.8
Esenler Erokspor
8.7
Manisa F.K.
8.5
Pendikspor
8.4
Vanspor FK
8.3
İstanbulspor
8.3
Boluspor
8.3
Keçiörengücü
8.2
Sarıyer
7.9
Batman Petrolspor
7.5
Muğlaspor
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Batman Petrolspor
7.5
Antalyaspor
5.3
Vanspor FK
5.2
Sarıyer
5.1
Sivasspor
5.0
Esenler Erokspor
5.0
Pendikspor
5.0
Boluspor
5.0
Manisa F.K.
4.8
Iğdır FK
4.8
İstanbulspor
4.7
Keçiörengücü
4.7
Bandırmaspor
4.7
Kayserispor
4.5
Bursaspor
4.4
Fatih Karagümrük
4.4
Ümraniyespor
4.3
Muğlaspor
4.0
Bodrum FK
4.0
Mardin 1969
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Muğlaspor
39.0
Bursaspor
29.1
Fatih Karagümrük
29.0
Vanspor FK
27.7
Antalyaspor
27.2
Pendikspor
26.3
Mardin 1969
26.0
Boluspor
25.6
Kayserispor
25.0
Bodrum FK
24.1
Bandırmaspor
23.8
Keçiörengücü
23.5
Iğdır FK
23.5
Manisa F.K.
23.4
Sarıyer
23.3
İstanbulspor
23.2
Ümraniyespor
23.1
Sivasspor
23.0
Batman Petrolspor
23.0
Esenler Erokspor
22.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
45.1%
@ 2.01-1.1%
Under 9.5
54.9%
@ 1.72+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.02
Marathonbet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.69
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
67.3%
Under 3.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
63.6%
Under 21.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Iğdır FK or Draw✗ Miss
71.7%
Avg Implied 62.1% · @ 1.48
Edge
+9.6%
41%
31%
28%
covers Iğdır FK + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.57
William Hil
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Superbet
1.47
BetVictor
1.47
Iğdır FK or Kayserispor✓ Hit
69.1%
Avg Implied 71.5% · @ 1.28
Edge
-2.5%
41%
31%
28%
covers Iğdır FK + Kayserispor
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Draw or Kayserispor✓ Hit
59.3%
Avg Implied 66.4% · @ 1.38
Edge
-7.2%
41%
31%
28%
covers Draw + Kayserispor
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.42
William Hil
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.39
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Iğdır FK over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.6%
@ 1.33+2.0%
Under
28.4%
@ 3.05-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.17
Betano
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Iğdır FK over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.9%
@ 2.62+0.5%
Under
64.1%
@ 1.43-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.80
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.62
1xBet
2.61
Marathonbet
2.61
Under
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Iğdır FK over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.4%
@ 6.15-1.6%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.09+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
1xBet
6.05
Marathonbet
6.05
Superbet
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Iğdır FK over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 16.92-1.8%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.02+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
21.00
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Kayserispor over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
63.5%
@ 1.29-8.5%
Under
36.5%
@ 3.32+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.49
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Betano
3.35
BetVictor
3.25
Kayserispor over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.7%
@ 2.40-11.9%
Under
73.3%
@ 1.51+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.49
BetVictor
2.45
Marathonbet
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Under
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Kayserispor over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.2%
@ 5.51-8.6%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.11+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.75
Marathonbet
5.40
Superbet
5.40
1xBet
5.40
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Kayserispor over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 13.92-4.9%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
1xBet
15.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Iğdır FK, so a minus line means Iğdır FK give that many goals of a start and Kayserispor receive them. At -1, Iğdır FK must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Iğdır FK win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Iğdır FK)Actual: Kayserispor
Iğdır FK -2
6.5%
@ 15.00+0.4%
Draw -2
12.3%
@ 8.50+1.4%
Kayserispor +2
81.2%
@ 1.11-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Away
Bet365
1.11
Handicap -1 (Iğdır FK)Actual: Kayserispor
Iğdır FK -1
18.8%
@ 5.32+2.7%
Draw -1
22.0%
@ 4.13+1.2%
Kayserispor +1
59.3%
@ 1.36-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.45
Unibet
4.50
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.15
Unibet
3.50
Away
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Handicap +1 (Iğdır FK)Actual: Draw
Iğdır FK +1
71.7%
@ 1.46+12.1%
Draw +1
17.3%
@ 3.87-5.1%
Kayserispor -1
11.0%
@ 4.81-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.50
Marathonbet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.86
Unibet
3.30
Away
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.75
Unibet
4.00
Handicap +2 (Iğdır FK)Actual: Iğdır FK
Iğdır FK +2
89.0%
@ 1.13+12.6%
Draw +2
7.9%
@ 6.05-6.4%
Kayserispor -2
3.1%
@ 9.25-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Marathonbet
4.60
Away
Bet365
12.00
Marathonbet
6.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Iğdır FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
0.80
0.53
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.77
0.53
0.80
0.53
0.73
0.53
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Kayserispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kayserispor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.67
0.33
0.60
0.13
0.73
vs Stronger (9)
0.00
1.11
0.00
1.25
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.33
0.48
0.45
0.36
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Iğdır FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
66.5%
@ 1.40+0.4%
Under 0.5
33.5%
@ 2.72-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
BetVictor
1.43
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.90
Betfair
2.88
William Hil
2.88
Bet365
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
27.4%
@ 2.89-4.6%
Under 1.5
72.6%
@ 1.36+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.04
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.92
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.37
BetVictor
1.37
Betano
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.0%
@ 7.26-3.8%
Under 2.5
91.0%
@ 1.06+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Bet365
8.00
William Hil
7.50
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
6.95
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Iğdır FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
46.4%
@ 2.20+4.4%
Under
53.6%
@ 1.60-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.27
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.15
1xBet
2.15
Under
Pinnacle
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.59
1xBet
1.59
Betano
1.57
Iğdır FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.9%
@ 7.03-0.2%
Under
87.1%
@ 1.06+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.30
1xBet
7.30
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.08
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Iğdır FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kayserispor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
33.8%
@ 2.07-10.8%
Under
66.2%
@ 1.67+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.70
Superbet
1.67
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Kayserispor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.4%
@ 6.40-7.0%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.07+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.65
1xBet
6.65
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Kayserispor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 11.00-7.3%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.01+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Iğdır FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.93
0.80
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.67
0.80
0.93
0.80
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Kayserispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kayserispor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.73
0.87
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.56
0.50
2.00
0.60
1.20
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.52
0.82
0.45
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Iğdır FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.7%
Under 0.5
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
40.0%
Under 1.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.4%
Under 2.5
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Iğdır FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
56.5%
Under
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iğdır FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.5%
Under
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iğdır FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kayserispor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.8%
Under
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kayserispor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kayserispor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.6%
1.07
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-
-
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.0%
1.07
Betano
1.11
Pinnacle
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.8%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
+8.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.0%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.0%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
-
+12.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.1%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.6%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.08
1xBet
1.06
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
81.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.6%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.25
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.4%
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
73.3%
1.51
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
+11.9%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.6%
1.36
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.37
BetVictor
1.37
Betano
1.37
Betfair
1.36
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
71.7%
1.48
Betano
1.57
William Hil
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Superbet
1.47
BetVictor
1.47
+9.6%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
71.7%
1.46
Betfair
1.50
Marathonbet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.43
-
+12.1%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
71.6%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
+2.0%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Iğdır FK · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gianni Bruno34%
Bengali-Fodé Koita26%
Daniel Avramovski25%
Leandro Bacuna19%
Florian Loshaj15%
Moryke Fofana15%
Wenderson Tsunami14%
Atakan Çankaya11%
Ryan Mendes10%
Alperen Selvi10%
Ahmet Engin7%
Ali Kaan Güneren3%
Güray Vural3%
Gökcan Kaya3%
Oğuz Kağan Güçtekin0%
Dorin Rotariu0%
Doğan Erdoğan0%
Sinan Bolat0%
Alim Öztürk0%
Valentin Eysseric0%
Caner Cavlan0%
Tunahan Ergul0%
Robin Yalçın0%
Ali Yaşar0%
Burak Bekaroğlu0%
Furkan Köse0%
Antoine Conte0%
Serkan Asan0%
Muhammet Taha Tepe0%
Eyüp Akcan0%
Moustapha Camara0%
Özder Özcan0%
Marius Tresor Doh0%
Taha Tepe0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marius Tresor Doh50%
Sinan Bolat43%
Alperen Selvi40%
Alim Öztürk36%
Burak Bekaroğlu33%
Caner Cavlan29%
Atakan Çankaya22%
Wenderson Tsunami21%
Oğuz Kağan Güçtekin21%
Güray Vural20%
Muhammet Taha Tepe20%
Antoine Conte18%
Florian Loshaj15%
Valentin Eysseric14%
Doğan Erdoğan13%
Leandro Bacuna12%
Gökcan Kaya11%
Ahmet Engin11%
Ryan Mendes10%
Gianni Bruno9%
Ali Yaşar9%
Serkan Asan8%
Bengali-Fodé Koita7%
Robin Yalçın7%
Ali Kaan Güneren7%
Eyüp Akcan6%
Dorin Rotariu6%
Moryke Fofana6%
Tunahan Ergul0%
Furkan Köse0%
Daniel Avramovski0%
Moustapha Camara0%
Özder Özcan0%
Taha Tepe0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Güray Vural17%
Florian Loshaj15%
Caner Cavlan14%
Gökcan Kaya14%
Leandro Bacuna12%
Alperen Selvi10%
Moryke Fofana9%
Alim Öztürk8%
Ryan Mendes7%
Gianni Bruno6%
Eyüp Akcan6%
Dorin Rotariu6%
Atakan Çankaya6%
Oğuz Kağan Güçtekin3%
Ali Kaan Güneren0%
Doğan Erdoğan0%
Sinan Bolat0%
Valentin Eysseric0%
Ahmet Engin0%
Tunahan Ergul0%
Robin Yalçın0%
Bengali-Fodé Koita0%
Ali Yaşar0%
Burak Bekaroğlu0%
Furkan Köse0%
Antoine Conte0%
Daniel Avramovski0%
Wenderson Tsunami0%
Serkan Asan0%
Muhammet Taha Tepe0%
Moustapha Camara0%
Özder Özcan0%
Marius Tresor Doh0%
Taha Tepe0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gianni Bruno22%
Ryan Mendes17%
Moryke Fofana12%
Bengali-Fodé Koita7%
Leandro Bacuna6%
Ahmet Engin4%
Oğuz Kağan Güçtekin0%
Ali Kaan Güneren0%
Güray Vural0%
Dorin Rotariu0%
Doğan Erdoğan0%
Sinan Bolat0%
Alim Öztürk0%
Valentin Eysseric0%
Florian Loshaj0%
Caner Cavlan0%
Tunahan Ergul0%
Robin Yalçın0%
Atakan Çankaya0%
Ali Yaşar0%
Burak Bekaroğlu0%
Gökcan Kaya0%
Furkan Köse0%
Antoine Conte0%
Daniel Avramovski0%
Wenderson Tsunami0%
Serkan Asan0%
Muhammet Taha Tepe0%
Alperen Selvi0%
Eyüp Akcan0%
Moustapha Camara0%
Özder Özcan0%
Marius Tresor Doh0%
Taha Tepe0%
Kayserispor
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
T. Seferi67%
Florent Hasani33%
B. Keser33%
D. Moreno0%
G. Sağlam0%
D. Radu0%
J. Tabidze0%
S. Kurt0%
M. Uçar0%
S. Güler0%
Gökhan Değirmenci0%
C. Şen0%
M. Dulca0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Tabidze67%
G. Sağlam33%
Florent Hasani33%
T. Seferi33%
M. Uçar33%
S. Güler33%
M. Dulca33%
D. Moreno0%
D. Radu0%
S. Kurt0%
Gökhan Değirmenci0%
B. Keser0%
C. Şen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
G. Sağlam33%
J. Tabidze33%
S. Kurt33%
D. Moreno0%
Florent Hasani0%
D. Radu0%
T. Seferi0%
M. Uçar0%
S. Güler0%
Gökhan Değirmenci0%
B. Keser0%
C. Şen0%
M. Dulca0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Moreno33%
Florent Hasani33%
T. Seferi33%
B. Keser33%
G. Sağlam0%
D. Radu0%
J. Tabidze0%
S. Kurt0%
M. Uçar0%
S. Güler0%
Gökhan Değirmenci0%
C. Şen0%
M. Dulca0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (27)
€19m
ANT (25)
€16m
BF (31)
€13m
FK (23)
€12m
KAY (23)
€12m
EE (23)
€11m
SIV (26)
€10m
IF (26)
€9m
MF (24)
€9m
BP (25)
€9m
İST (28)
€8m
BAN (29)
€7m
ÜMR (25)
€7m
PEN (26)
€6m
M1 (25)
€6m
VF (21)
€6m
KEÇ (25)
€6m
MUĞ (19)
€6m
SAR (20)
€5m
BOL (18)
€3m
Iğdır FK's squad is €3m less valuable than Kayserispor's (€9m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (10)
€10m
BF (10)
€6m
FK (9)
€5m
KAY (9)
€5m
ANT (8)
€5m
EE (8)
€4m
SIV (10)
€4m
BP (10)
€4m
IF (7)
€4m
VF (10)
€3m
İST (10)
€3m
ÜMR (8)
€3m
MUĞ (8)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
SAR (7)
€2m
MF (7)
€2m
BAN (8)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
PEN (10)
€2m
BOL (5)
€1m
Iğdır FK's attack is €1m less valuable than Kayserispor's (€4m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (5)
€4m
ANT (6)
€4m
EE (6)
€3m
FK (3)
€3m
BF (10)
€3m
MF (7)
€3m
SIV (5)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
BP (5)
€2m
ÜMR (7)
€2m
IF (7)
€2m
BAN (6)
€2m
KAY (4)
€2m
PEN (5)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
MUĞ (7)
€2m
SAR (4)
€1m
VF (2)
€1m
İST (5)
€1m
BOL (5)
€1m
Iğdır FK and Kayserispor have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ANT (11)
€7m
KAY (10)
€5m
BUR (12)
€4m
BF (11)
€4m
FK (11)
€4m
MF (10)
€4m
İST (13)
€4m
IF (12)
€3m
BAN (15)
€3m
PEN (11)
€3m
EE (9)
€3m
BP (10)
€3m
KEÇ (11)
€3m
SIV (11)
€3m
VF (9)
€2m
M1 (9)
€2m
SAR (9)
€2m
ÜMR (10)
€2m
MUĞ (4)
€2m
BOL (8)
€1m
Iğdır FK's defence is €2m less valuable than Kayserispor's (€3m vs €5m).
Turkey: 1. Lig 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: 1. Lig stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Batman Petrolspor
Bursaspor
Mardin 1969
Manisa F.K.
Sarıyer
Fatih Karagümrük
Bandırmaspor
Keçiörengücü
Muğlaspor
Pendikspor
Vanspor FK
Ümraniyespor
Esenler Erokspor
Bodrum FK
Antalyaspor
Sivasspor
İstanbulspor
Boluspor