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Ilirija vs Dob Result & Analysis

Date: 14/04/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 5-2
Ilirija
Ilirija
Vs
58%
23%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dob
Dob
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ilirija win✓ Hit
57.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dob win✗ Miss
19.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

IlirijaIlirija

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W01L23L20W20W20W04L23L11D01LH·RUD06/11A·ROG12/11H·ALU19/11A·BRI27/11H·NAF02/03A·TRI10/03A·BIS25/03H·BEL01/04H·FUŽ05/04A·DEK08/04
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.620.961.751.001.500.92
vs Stronger (10)1.400.802.000.800.800.80
vs Similar (14)1.791.071.571.142.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %46% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dob) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DobDob

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-525L22D11D12L00D12L01L41W22D01LA·TRI04/11A·FUŽ12/11H·BIS19/11A·BEL26/11H·DEK04/03A·RUD11/03A·BIL18/03H·PRI26/03A·KRK31/03H·KRŠ08/04
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.291.921.421.671.172.17
vs Stronger (5)1.202.802.002.000.673.33
vs Similar (19)1.321.681.301.601.331.78
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %4% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.5%
Under 2.5
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.3%
Under 3.5
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.9%
No
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
8.8%
1-0
7.6%
3-1
6.8%
3-0
6.0%
2-2
5.6%
1-2
5.4%
Ilirija goals ↓
Dob goals →
01234
05.1%3.7%2.6%1.0%0.3%
17.6%11%5.4%2.0%0.6%
28.8%9.9%5.6%2.1%0.6%
36.0%6.8%3.8%1.4%0.4%
43.1%3.5%2.0%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ilirija goals (down), columns = Dob goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rogaška
2.27
Aluminij
2.13
Ilirija
1.80
Krka
1.77
Beltinci
1.47
Primorje
1.37
Nafta
1.37
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.27
Bilje
1.23
Bistrica
1.23
Dekani
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Rudar
1.07
Fužinar
1.03
Krško
0.80
Dob
0.70
Ilirija is 1.10 points better than Dob in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 0.70).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Aluminij
1.93
Ilirija
1.83
Rogaška
1.73
Nafta
1.67
Beltinci
1.57
Krka
1.53
Primorje
1.40
Rudar
1.37
Bilje
1.33
Fužinar
1.30
Bistrica
1.30
Dob
1.23
Krško
1.20
Triglav
1.10
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.00
Dekani
0.90
Ilirija is 0.60 goals better than Dob in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.23).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rogaška
0.77
Aluminij
0.77
Krka
0.93
Dekani
0.97
Ilirija
1.00
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.23
Primorje
1.33
Bistrica
1.33
Nafta
1.43
Beltinci
1.50
Rudar
1.70
Triglav
1.73
Bilje
1.77
Fužinar
1.87
Krško
1.97
Dob
2.10
Ilirija is 1.10 goals better than Dob in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.10).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

IlirijaIlirija

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L11D00D00D00D02L11D11D01LH·RUD06/11A·ROG12/11H·ALU19/11A·BRI27/11H·NAF02/03A·TRI10/03A·BIS25/03H·BEL01/04H·FUŽ05/04A·DEK08/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.500.830.420.500.58
vs Stronger (10)0.400.300.800.200.000.40
vs Similar (14)0.860.640.860.570.860.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %54% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Dob) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DobDob

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L11D01L10W00D02L01L41W02L01LA·TRI04/11A·FUŽ12/11H·BIS19/11A·BEL26/11H·DEK04/03A·RUD11/03A·BIL18/03H·PRI26/03A·KRK31/03H·KRŠ08/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.080.751.000.581.17
vs Stronger (5)0.401.800.501.500.332.00
vs Similar (19)0.740.890.800.900.670.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dob over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dob over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dob over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

IlirijaIlirija

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D12L20W20W20W02L12L00D00DH·RUD06/11A·ROG12/11H·ALU19/11A·BRI27/11H·NAF02/03A·TRI10/03A·BIS25/03H·BEL01/04H·FUŽ05/04A·DEK08/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.960.460.920.581.000.33
vs Stronger (10)1.000.501.200.600.800.40
vs Similar (14)0.930.430.710.571.140.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %71% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Dob) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DobDob

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L11D10W02L00D10W00D00D20W00DA·TRI04/11A·FUŽ12/11H·BIS19/11A·BEL26/11H·DEK04/03A·RUD11/03A·BIL18/03H·PRI26/03A·KRK31/03H·KRŠ08/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.620.830.670.670.581.00
vs Stronger (5)0.801.001.500.500.331.33
vs Similar (19)0.580.790.500.700.670.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %46% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dob over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dob over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dob over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (9)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
ILI wins
0
Draws
0
DOB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ilirija vs Dob · H/A from ILI
DateH/AGameScore
01/10/22ADob Vs ILI1-4

IlirijaIlirija

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/04/23ADekani Vs ILI1-0
05/04/23HILI Vs Fužinar1-1
01/04/23HILI Vs Beltinci2-3
25/03/23ABistrica Vs ILI4-0
10/03/23ATriglav Vs ILI0-2
02/03/23HILI Vs Nafta2-0
27/11/22ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs ILI0-2
19/11/22HILI Vs Aluminij2-3
12/11/22ARogaška Vs ILI1-0
06/11/22HILI Vs Rudar3-1

DobDob

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/04/23HDOB Vs Krško0-1
31/03/23AKrka Vs DOB2-2
26/03/23HDOB Vs Primorje4-1
18/03/23ABilje Vs DOB1-0
11/03/23ARudar Vs DOB2-1
04/03/23HDOB Vs Dekani0-0
26/11/22ABeltinci Vs DOB2-1
19/11/22HDOB Vs Bistrica1-1
12/11/22AFužinar Vs DOB2-2
04/11/22ATriglav Vs DOB5-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ilirija
Ilirija
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDL1.62
HomeWLWLD1.58
AwayLWWLL1.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%42%50%
AVG goals2.582.752.42
Over 1.5 %75%83%67%
Over 2.5 %46%50%42%
Over 3.5 %33%33%33%
Scored1.621.751.50
Conceded0.961.000.92
BTTS38%58%17%
Clean Sheet46%42%50%
Corners---
Cards---
Dob
Dob
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDL0.83
HomeLDDWL1.25
AwayDLLLD0.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %17%33%0%
AVG goals3.213.083.33
Over 1.5 %88%83%92%
Over 2.5 %67%67%67%
Over 3.5 %42%42%42%
Scored1.291.421.17
Conceded1.921.672.17
BTTS75%75%75%
Clean Sheet4%8%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RogaškaRogaška3068
70%
2.3
5223+29
2.5
67%
40%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
2AluminijAluminij3064
63%
2.1
5823+35
2.7
70%
50%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.8
-
3IlirijaIlirija3054
53%
1.8
5530+25
2.8
77%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.81.0
-
4KrkaKrka3053
47%
1.8
4628+18
2.5
70%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.50.9
-
5BeltinciBeltinci3044
40%
1.5
4745+2
3.1
90%
60%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.5
-
6NaftaNafta3041
37%
1.4
5043+7
3.1
83%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.4
-
7PrimorjePrimorje3041
33%
1.4
4240+2
2.7
70%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.3
-
8Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3038
37%
1.3
3037-7
2.2
73%
23%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.2
-
9BistricaBistrica3037
30%
1.2
3940-1
2.6
80%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.3
-
10BiljeBilje3037
33%
1.2
4053-13
3.1
77%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.8
-
11DekaniDekani3035
23%
1.2
2729-2
1.9
53%
27%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.0
-
12TriglavTriglav3035
33%
1.2
3352-19
2.8
80%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.7
-
13RudarRudar3032
23%
1.1
4151-10
3.1
83%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.41.7
-
14FužinarFužinar3031
27%
1.0
3956-17
3.2
80%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
15KrškoKrško3024
20%
0.8
3659-23
3.2
80%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.0
-
16DobDob3021
13%
0.7
3763-26
3.3
87%
70%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.1
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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