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Ilirija vs Fužinar Result & Analysis

Date: 05/04/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 1-1
Ilirija
Ilirija
Vs
53%
23%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Fužinar
Fužinar
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ilirija win✗ Miss
53.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fužinar win✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

IlirijaIlirija

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W40W31W01L23L20W20W20W04L23LH·KRK23/10A·KRŠ31/10H·RUD06/11A·ROG12/11H·ALU19/11A·BRI27/11H·NAF02/03A·TRI10/03A·BIS25/03H·BEL01/04
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.730.951.821.001.640.91
vs Stronger (10)1.400.802.000.800.800.80
vs Similar (12)2.001.081.671.172.331.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Fužinar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FužinarFužinar

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D20W01L22D22D10W21W20W01L04LH·BIS23/10A·BEL29/10H·DEK05/11H·DOB12/11A·BIL20/11H·PRI26/11A·KRK03/03H·KRŠ12/03H·ROG29/03A·ALU01/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.451.731.271.451.642.00
vs Stronger (2)0.502.000.001.001.003.00
vs Similar (18)1.611.831.331.671.892.00
vs Weaker (2)1.000.502.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %14% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.0%
Under 1.5
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
65.6%
Under 2.5
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.7%
Under 3.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.0%
No
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
10.2%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
6.5%
2-2
6.3%
1-2
6.2%
1-0
6.1%
3-0
4.9%
Ilirija goals ↓
Fužinar goals →
01234
04.3%3.6%3.0%1.3%0.4%
16.1%10%6.2%2.7%0.9%
27.2%9.5%6.3%2.8%0.9%
34.9%6.5%4.3%1.9%0.6%
42.5%3.3%2.2%1.0%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ilirija goals (down), columns = Fužinar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rogaška
2.27
Aluminij
2.13
Ilirija
1.80
Krka
1.77
Beltinci
1.47
Primorje
1.37
Nafta
1.37
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.27
Bilje
1.23
Bistrica
1.23
Dekani
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Rudar
1.07
Fužinar
1.03
Krško
0.80
Dob
0.70
Ilirija is 0.77 points better than Fužinar in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.03).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Aluminij
1.93
Ilirija
1.83
Rogaška
1.73
Nafta
1.67
Beltinci
1.57
Krka
1.53
Primorje
1.40
Rudar
1.37
Bilje
1.33
Fužinar
1.30
Bistrica
1.30
Dob
1.23
Krško
1.20
Triglav
1.10
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.00
Dekani
0.90
Ilirija is 0.53 goals better than Fužinar in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.30).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rogaška
0.77
Aluminij
0.77
Krka
0.93
Dekani
0.97
Ilirija
1.00
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.23
Primorje
1.33
Bistrica
1.33
Nafta
1.43
Beltinci
1.50
Rudar
1.70
Triglav
1.73
Bilje
1.77
Fužinar
1.87
Krško
1.97
Dob
2.10
Ilirija is 0.87 goals better than Fužinar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.87).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

IlirijaIlirija

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D30W21W01L11D00D00D00D02L11DH·KRK23/10A·KRŠ31/10H·RUD06/11A·ROG12/11H·ALU19/11A·BRI27/11H·NAF02/03A·TRI10/03A·BIS25/03H·BEL01/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.680.450.820.360.550.55
vs Stronger (10)0.400.300.800.200.000.40
vs Similar (12)0.920.580.830.501.000.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %59% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Fužinar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FužinarFužinar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D11D10W10W00D20W00D02LH·BIS23/10A·BEL29/10H·DEK05/11H·DOB12/11A·BIL20/11H·PRI26/11A·KRK03/03H·KRŠ12/03H·ROG29/03A·ALU01/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.500.640.360.910.64
vs Stronger (2)0.500.500.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (18)0.780.560.560.441.000.67
vs Weaker (2)1.000.002.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %59% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fužinar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fužinar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fužinar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

IlirijaIlirija

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W10W10W00D12L20W20W20W02L12LH·KRK23/10A·KRŠ31/10H·RUD06/11A·ROG12/11H·ALU19/11A·BRI27/11H·NAF02/03A·TRI10/03A·BIS25/03H·BEL01/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.050.501.000.641.090.36
vs Stronger (10)1.000.501.200.600.800.40
vs Similar (12)1.080.500.830.671.330.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %68% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Fužinar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FužinarFužinar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W01L11D12L00D21W00D01L02LH·BIS23/10A·BEL29/10H·DEK05/11H·DOB12/11A·BIL20/11H·PRI26/11A·KRK03/03H·KRŠ12/03H·ROG29/03A·ALU01/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.681.230.641.090.731.36
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (18)0.831.280.781.220.891.33
vs Weaker (2)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %18% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fužinar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fužinar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fužinar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (9)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
ILI wins
0
Draws
0
FUŽ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ilirija vs Fužinar · H/A from ILI
DateH/AGameScore
04/09/22AFužinar Vs ILI0-4

IlirijaIlirija

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/04/23HILI Vs Beltinci2-3
25/03/23ABistrica Vs ILI4-0
10/03/23ATriglav Vs ILI0-2
02/03/23HILI Vs Nafta2-0
27/11/22ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs ILI0-2
19/11/22HILI Vs Aluminij2-3
12/11/22ARogaška Vs ILI1-0
06/11/22HILI Vs Rudar3-1
31/10/22AKrško Vs ILI0-4
23/10/22HILI Vs Krka2-0

FužinarFužinar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/04/23AAluminij Vs FUŽ4-0
29/03/23HFUŽ Vs Rogaška0-1
12/03/23HFUŽ Vs Krško2-0
03/03/23AKrka Vs FUŽ1-2
26/11/22HFUŽ Vs Primorje1-0
20/11/22ABilje Vs FUŽ2-2
12/11/22HFUŽ Vs Dob2-2
05/11/22HFUŽ Vs Dekani0-1
29/10/22ABeltinci Vs FUŽ0-2
23/10/22HFUŽ Vs Bistrica1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ilirija
Ilirija
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL1.73
HomeWWLWL1.64
AwayWLWWL1.82
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%45%55%
AVG goals2.682.822.55
Over 1.5 %77%82%73%
Over 2.5 %50%55%45%
Over 3.5 %36%36%36%
Scored1.731.821.64
Conceded0.951.000.91
BTTS36%55%18%
Clean Sheet50%45%55%
Corners---
Cards---
Fužinar
Fužinar
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL1.23
HomeLDWWL1.27
AwayLWDWL1.18
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%36%36%
AVG goals3.182.733.64
Over 1.5 %77%64%91%
Over 2.5 %64%45%82%
Over 3.5 %50%36%64%
Scored1.451.271.64
Conceded1.731.452.00
BTTS59%45%73%
Clean Sheet14%18%9%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RogaškaRogaška3068
70%
2.3
5223+29
2.5
67%
40%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
2AluminijAluminij3064
63%
2.1
5823+35
2.7
70%
50%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.8
-
3IlirijaIlirija3054
53%
1.8
5530+25
2.8
77%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.81.0
-
4KrkaKrka3053
47%
1.8
4628+18
2.5
70%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.50.9
-
5BeltinciBeltinci3044
40%
1.5
4745+2
3.1
90%
60%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.5
-
6NaftaNafta3041
37%
1.4
5043+7
3.1
83%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.4
-
7PrimorjePrimorje3041
33%
1.4
4240+2
2.7
70%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.3
-
8Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3038
37%
1.3
3037-7
2.2
73%
23%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.2
-
9BistricaBistrica3037
30%
1.2
3940-1
2.6
80%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.3
-
10BiljeBilje3037
33%
1.2
4053-13
3.1
77%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.8
-
11DekaniDekani3035
23%
1.2
2729-2
1.9
53%
27%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.0
-
12TriglavTriglav3035
33%
1.2
3352-19
2.8
80%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.7
-
13RudarRudar3032
23%
1.1
4151-10
3.1
83%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.41.7
-
14FužinarFužinar3031
27%
1.0
3956-17
3.2
80%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
15KrškoKrško3024
20%
0.8
3659-23
3.2
80%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.0
-
16DobDob3021
13%
0.7
3763-26
3.3
87%
70%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.1
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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