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Imisli FK vs Karvan Result & Analysis

Date: 24/05/2026
Time: 12:00
Final 1-1
Imisli FK
Imisli FK
Vs
41%
33%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Karvan
Karvan
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Top picks for this game9 Squad value10 Games History11 Overall Statistics12 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Imisli FK a 41% win probability against Karvan in the Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa on 2026-05-24, with 33% for the draw and 26% for Karvan. The model estimates around 2.0 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 0-0 the most likely scoreline (15.0%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (86%).

Results analysis

Imisli FK finished 1-1 against Karvan (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 41% home win, 33% draw and 26% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (86%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Imisli FK win✗ Miss
41.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
33.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Karvan win✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Imisli FKImisli FK

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D05L06L11D10W10W02L10W00D03LA·ŞAM08/03H·SAB14/03A·NEF20/03H·TUR07/04A·QAB12/04A·KAP19/04H·SUM25/04A·ARA02/05H·ZIR08/05A·QAR16/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.270.541.380.881.18
vs Stronger (12)0.421.920.171.670.672.17
vs Similar (15)0.871.001.001.330.780.78
vs Weaker (3)1.330.000.000.002.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-711D12L01L07L41W10W02L03L01L12LH·SUM07/03A·ARA13/03H·ZIR19/03A·QAR06/04H·KAP10/04H·ŞAM18/04A·SAB27/04H·NEF05/05A·TUR10/05H·QAB15/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.602.070.751.940.432.21
vs Stronger (18)0.392.170.502.120.302.20
vs Similar (10)0.602.000.501.830.752.25
vs Weaker (2)2.501.502.501.50--
Clean sheet %7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Imisli FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%15%025%128%218%39%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
60.5%
Under 1.5
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
32.1%
Under 2.5
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.1%
Under 3.5
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.2%
No
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.0%
1-1 ✓
14.5%
1-0
14.3%
0-1
10.2%
2-0
9.0%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
5.6%
0-2
4.9%
Imisli FK goals ↓
Karvan goals →
01234
015%10%4.9%1.4%0.3%
114%15%5.6%1.6%0.3%
29.0%7.6%3.2%0.9%0.2%
33.4%2.9%1.2%0.3%0.1%
41.0%0.8%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Imisli FK goals (down), columns = Karvan goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Karvan
0.45
Mingəçevir
0.00
Imisli FK is 0.61 points better than Karvan in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 0.45).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Karvan
0.70
Mingəçevir
0.00
Imisli FK is 0.02 goals better than Karvan in terms of goals scored per game (0.72 vs 0.70).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Turan
0.82
Qarabag
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Mingəçevir
2.00
Karvan
2.00
Imisli FK is 0.75 goals better than Karvan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 2.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

🔥 8. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.585.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 9. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
ZIR (23)
€12m
ARA (19)
€6m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
ARA (7)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
ARA (5)
€2m
ZIR (3)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
ZIR (10)
€6m
ARA (7)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head

Imisli FK vs Karvan · H/A from IF
DateH/AGameScore
15/12/25HIF Vs Karvan1-1
19/09/25AKarvan Vs IF0-3
11/04/25AKarvan Vs IF1-1
06/02/25HIF Vs Karvan2-0
16/10/24AKarvan Vs IF3-2
01/05/24AKarvan Vs IF1-0
29/02/24HIF Vs Karvan2-0
10/11/23AKarvan Vs IF1-1

Imisli FKImisli FK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/26AQarabag Vs IF3-0
08/05/26HIF Vs Zira0-0
02/05/26AAraz Vs IF0-1
25/04/26HIF Vs Sumqayıt0-2
19/04/26AKapaz Vs IF0-1
12/04/26AQabala Vs IF0-1
07/04/26HIF Vs Turan1-1
20/03/26ANeftchi Baku Vs IF6-0
14/03/26HIF Vs Sabah FA0-5
08/03/26AŞamaxı FK Vs IF0-0

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/05/26HKAR Vs Qabala1-2
10/05/26ATuran Vs KAR1-0
05/05/26HKAR Vs Neftchi Baku0-3
27/04/26ASabah FA Vs KAR2-0
18/04/26HKAR Vs Şamaxı FK1-0
10/04/26HKAR Vs Kapaz4-1
06/04/26AQarabag Vs KAR7-0
19/03/26HKAR Vs Zira0-1
13/03/26AAraz Vs KAR2-1
07/03/26HKAR Vs Sumqayıt1-1

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Imisli FK
Imisli FK
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDL1.38
HomeDLDLD1.28
AwayLWWWL1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%28%40%
AVG goals1.981.762.20
Over 1.5 %52%52%52%
Over 2.5 %32%28%36%
Over 3.5 %20%16%24%
Scored0.940.801.08
Conceded1.040.961.12
BTTS28%32%24%
Clean Sheet48%44%52%
Corners---
Cards---
Karvan
Karvan
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL0.84
HomeLWWLL1.04
AwayDLLLL0.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%27%12%
AVG goals2.902.962.83
Over 1.5 %88%92%83%
Over 2.5 %48%54%42%
Over 3.5 %24%27%21%
Scored1.101.350.83
Conceded1.801.622.00
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet12%15%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 12. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sabah FASabah FA3378
73%
2.4
7525+50
3.0
76%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.30.8
-
2QarabagQarabag3369
64%
2.1
7127+44
3.0
76%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.20.8
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3359
48%
1.8
5732+25
2.7
73%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.0
-
4TuranTuran3359
52%
1.8
4427+17
2.2
67%
45%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.8
-
5ZiraZira3353
39%
1.6
4336+7
2.4
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.31.1
-
6ArazAraz3346
39%
1.4
4458-14
3.1
88%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.31.8
-
7SumqayıtSumqayıt3238
34%
1.2
4249-7
2.8
78%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
-
8Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3338
27%
1.2
3140-9
2.2
67%
45%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
9Imisli FKImisli FK3234
22%
1.1
2340-17
2.0
53%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.2
-
10QabalaQabala3430
24%
0.9
3449-15
2.4
68%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
11KapazKapaz3327
24%
0.8
2561-36
2.6
76%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
12KarvanKarvan3315
9%
0.5
2366-43
2.7
82%
48%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.0
-
13MingəçevirMingəçevir10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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