The Pythia model points to an away win as the most likely outcome, assigning a 62 % chance to Neftchi Baku triumphing over Imisli FK. The prediction hinges on Neftchi’s strong away form, scoring an average of 2.44 goals per game while conceding only 0.78 against weaker opposition, versus Imisli’s struggle at home, where they average 0.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against stronger teams. The expected total is 2.5 goals, with the most probable total goal count being 2, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-1, carrying a 14 % probability. Home win stands at 13 %, draw at 25 %, and away win at 62 %. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Home under 3.5 goals (99.4 %), Under 6.5 (98.7 %), Home under 2.5 goals (96.6 %), Away +2 handicap (96.1 %), Under 5.5 (96.1 %), Away under 3.5 goals (89.7 %), and Under 4.5 (89.6 %). Recent form underscores the narrative: Imisli come off a 1-3 loss to Zira, while Neftchi enter on a five-game winning streak, having defeated Araz 5-0.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Imisli FK win
14.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku win
59.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Imisli FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.33
0.50
1.42
0.89
1.28
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
2.36
0.20
2.00
0.67
2.67
vs Similar (19)
0.89
0.74
0.71
1.00
1.00
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neftchi Baku
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.00
2.69
1.23
1.71
0.82
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.67
1.50
3.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
1.67
0.75
2.60
0.80
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (15)
2.73
0.87
3.17
1.00
2.44
0.78
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Imisli FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.5%
Under 1.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.1%
Under 2.5
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.4%
Under 3.5
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
41.8%
No
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.6%
0-2
13.1%
1-1
12.0%
0-0
10.5%
1-2
9.1%
0-3
7.3%
1-0
5.4%
1-3
5.1%
Imisli FK goals ↓
Neftchi Baku goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
15%
13%
7.3%
3.0%
1
5.4%
12%
9.1%
5.1%
2.1%
2
2.3%
3.8%
3.2%
1.8%
0.7%
3
0.5%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Imisli FK goals (down), columns = Neftchi Baku goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Imisli FK is 0.73 points worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Imisli FK is 1.01 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals scored per game (0.72 vs 1.73).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Imisli FK is 0.28 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Imisli FK or Draw
40.2%
Avg Implied -
14%
26%
60%
covers Imisli FK + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK or Neftchi Baku
73.9%
Avg Implied -
14%
26%
60%
covers Imisli FK + Neftchi Baku
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Neftchi Baku
85.9%
Avg Implied -
14%
26%
60%
covers Draw + Neftchi Baku
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Imisli FK over/under 0.5
Over
50.1%
Under
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 1.5
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 2.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5
Over
81.2%
Under
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5
Over
49.8%
Under
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5
Over
23.5%
Under
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 3.5
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Imisli FK, so a minus line means Imisli FK give that many goals of a start and Neftchi Baku receive them. At -1, Imisli FK must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Imisli FK win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Imisli FK)
Imisli FK -2
0.8%
Draw -2
3.3%
Neftchi Baku +2
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Imisli FK)
Imisli FK -1
4.1%
Draw -1
10.0%
Neftchi Baku +1
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Imisli FK)
Imisli FK +1
40.2%
Draw +1
25.6%
Neftchi Baku -1
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Imisli FK)
Imisli FK +2
65.9%
Draw +2
19.0%
Neftchi Baku -2
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Imisli FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.50
0.25
0.58
0.33
0.44
vs Stronger (11)
0.09
0.73
0.00
0.60
0.17
0.83
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.37
0.43
0.57
0.42
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neftchi Baku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.33
1.38
0.38
0.65
0.29
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.25
1.60
0.20
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.27
1.50
0.17
0.89
0.33
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Imisli FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.0%
Under 0.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.3%
Under 1.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.5%
Under 2.5
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Imisli FK over/under 0.5 HT
Over
30.8%
Under
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.0%
Under
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HT
Over
21.1%
Under
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Imisli FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.83
0.25
0.83
0.56
0.83
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.64
0.20
1.40
0.50
1.83
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.37
0.29
0.43
0.58
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neftchi Baku
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.31
0.85
1.06
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.60
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (15)
1.60
0.60
1.67
0.83
1.56
0.44
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Imisli FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.5%
Under 0.5
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.1%
Under 1.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.5%
Under 2.5
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Imisli FK over/under 0.5 2H
Over
35.5%
Under
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 1.5 2H
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2H
Over
65.2%
Under
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2H
Over
29.5%
Under
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Imisli FK's squad is €7m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€6m vs €13m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Imisli FK's attack is €1m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€3m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Imisli FK's midfield is €2m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Imisli FK's defence is €4m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€3m vs €6m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zira
Qarabag
Sabah FA
Turan
Kapaz
Safa Baku
Şamaxı FK
Qabala
Araz
Sumqayıt