Defensive solidity will dominate this encounter, with both sides averaging roughly one goal conceded per match. The model favours an away win, assigning 36% to Şəmaxı FK, 35% to a draw and 29% to Imisli FK. The expected total is 1.8 goals, with the most probable total of two goals at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0, carrying a 17.7% chance. Imisli’s home form shows 0.71 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, while Şəmaxı’s away record is 0.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. The suggested picks are: Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.7%), Under 5.5 (98.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 4.5 (96.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (94.6%), and Away under 2.5 goals (92.5%). Imisli’s recent form includes a win, while Şəmaxı comes off a draw, setting the stage for a tight, low-scoring match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Imisli FK win
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
35.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK win
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Imisli FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.33
0.50
1.42
0.89
1.28
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
2.36
0.20
2.00
0.67
2.67
vs Similar (19)
0.89
0.74
0.71
1.00
1.00
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şamaxı FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.20
1.00
1.20
0.73
1.20
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.73
1.17
1.50
0.60
2.00
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.89
0.89
1.00
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Imisli FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
55.5%
Under 1.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
27.4%
Under 2.5
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
11.1%
Under 3.5
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
36.9%
No
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
17.6%
1-1
14.8%
0-1
13.4%
1-0
13.4%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.7%
1-2
6.1%
2-1
6.1%
Imisli FK goals ↓
Şamaxı FK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
13%
6.7%
2.0%
0.5%
1
13%
15%
6.1%
1.8%
0.4%
2
6.7%
6.1%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
3
2.0%
1.8%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Imisli FK goals (down), columns = Şamaxı FK goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Imisli FK is 0.09 points worse than Şamaxı FK in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Imisli FK is 0.22 goals worse than Şamaxı FK in terms of goals scored per game (0.72 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Imisli FK is 0.04 goals worse than Şamaxı FK in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Imisli FK or Draw
67.7%
Avg Implied -
32%
35%
32%
covers Imisli FK + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK or Şamaxı FK
64.6%
Avg Implied -
32%
35%
32%
covers Imisli FK + Şamaxı FK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Şamaxı FK
67.7%
Avg Implied -
32%
35%
32%
covers Draw + Şamaxı FK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Imisli FK over/under 0.5
Over
59.6%
Under
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 1.5
Over
23.0%
Under
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 2.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5
Over
59.7%
Under
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5
Over
23.1%
Under
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Imisli FK, so a minus line means Imisli FK give that many goals of a start and Şamaxı FK receive them. At -1, Imisli FK must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Imisli FK win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Imisli FK)
Imisli FK -2
3.1%
Draw -2
8.7%
Şamaxı FK +2
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Imisli FK)
Imisli FK -1
11.9%
Draw -1
20.4%
Şamaxı FK +1
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Imisli FK)
Imisli FK +1
67.7%
Draw +1
20.4%
Şamaxı FK -1
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Imisli FK)
Imisli FK +2
88.1%
Draw +2
8.8%
Şamaxı FK -2
3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Imisli FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.50
0.25
0.58
0.33
0.44
vs Stronger (11)
0.09
0.73
0.00
0.60
0.17
0.83
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.37
0.43
0.57
0.42
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şamaxı FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.40
0.33
0.27
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.55
0.50
0.50
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (19)
0.32
0.32
0.22
0.11
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Imisli FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Imisli FK over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Imisli FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.83
0.25
0.83
0.56
0.83
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.64
0.20
1.40
0.50
1.83
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.37
0.29
0.43
0.58
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şamaxı FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.67
0.93
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.18
0.67
1.00
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.58
0.67
0.89
0.40
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Imisli FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Imisli FK over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Imisli FK's squad is €2m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€6m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Imisli FK's attack is €2m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Imisli FK and Şamaxı FK have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Imisli FK's defence is €1m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€3m vs €2m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zira
Neftchi Baku
Qarabag
Sabah FA
Turan
Kapaz
Safa Baku
Qabala
Araz
Sumqayıt