Ipswich host Sunderland at home on August 22 in the Premier League. The visitors have been on a two-game winning run, but were defeated 2-1 by Chelsea in their last outing. Ipswich, meanwhile, have remained unbeaten in their last five matches, securing a 3-0 win over QPR in their most recent game.
The model predicts a home win, with probabilities of 38% for Ipswich, 31% for a draw, and 31% for Sunderland. The expected total number of goals is 2.3, with the most likely score being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 14.6%.
At home, Ipswich have scored an average of 2.5 goals and conceded 1.0. Sunderland, away from home, have scored 1.0 goal on average and conceded 1.56. The model's selection is Under 3.5 goals, with an 80.8% probability and a 10% edge. This selection has a home win percentage of 38%, a draw percentage of 31%, and an away win percentage of 31%. The home win percentage is 38%, the draw percentage is 31%, and the away win percentage is 31%.
Results analysis
Ipswich extended a two-game winning run at home, beating Sunderland 2-1 and confirming the Pythia model’s predicted outcome. The model had named a home win as the favourite with a 38 % probability, and its call proved correct. The match finished 2-1, a result that matched the model’s forecast. Every suggested selection was settled: Under 7.5 hit with a 99.8 % probability; Under 6.5 hit at 99.2 %; Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.6 %; Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.7 %; Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.6 %; Under 5.5 hit at 97.2 %; Home under 3.5 goals hit at 96.6 %; and Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.8 %. The model’s selections performed consistently, delivering a solid prediction for the match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ipswich win✓ Hit
38.0%
Avg Implied 34.4% · @ 2.76
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.88
Marathonbet
2.83
Pinnacle
2.81
Betfair
2.80
Betano
2.80
Draw✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied 29.7% · @ 3.20
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.29
1xBet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Sunderland win✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied 35.8% · @ 2.65
Edge
-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.78
Marathonbet
2.73
Pinnacle
2.72
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.67
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ipswich
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.00
2.00
0.60
1.47
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.50
1.50
1.75
1.00
1.38
1.75
vs Weaker (18)
1.89
0.67
2.09
0.45
1.57
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sunderland) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sunderland
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.33
1.08
1.15
0.94
1.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
0.67
0.67
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (22)
1.18
1.36
1.20
1.30
1.17
1.42
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ipswich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.2%
@ 1.36-2.1%
Under 1.5
32.8%
@ 3.07+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
BetVictor
1.38
Superbet
1.37
888Sport
1.36
Under
10Bet
3.30
Unibet
3.20
Bet365
3.20
Pinnacle
3.18
Superbet
3.15
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.2%
@ 2.15-5.1%
Under 2.5
60.8%
@ 1.71+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.24
Bet365
2.20
SBO
2.20
Betano
2.18
Under
10Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.75
Unibet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.2%
@ 3.77-5.7%
Under 3.5
80.8%
@ 1.25+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
888Sport
3.90
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Under
Pinnacle
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.9%
@ 1.82-4.5%
No
53.1%
@ 1.93+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
Betfair
1.87
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
No
10Bet
2.05
William Hil
1.95
Betfair
1.95
888Sport
1.95
Unibet
1.94
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%@ 5.90+6.9%
0-0
11.8%@ 8.64+6.5%
1-0
11.3%@ 7.84+5.5%
0-1
9.7%@ 7.59+3.7%
2-1 ✓
8.0%@ 9.77+3.3%
2-0
7.6%@ 12.84+4.0%
1-2
7.0%@ 9.52+2.2%
0-2
5.8%@ 12.03+2.0%
Ipswich goals ↓
Sunderland goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.7%
5.8%
2.1%
0.5%
1
11%
15%
7.0%
2.5%
0.6%
2
7.6%
8.0%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.0%
3.2%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ipswich goals (down), columns = Sunderland goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Ipswich is 0.24 points worse than Sunderland in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Ipswich is 0.09 goals better than Sunderland in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Ipswich is 0.32 goals worse than Sunderland in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ipswich
For 5.6 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 14.4 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sunderland
For 5.0 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 12.8 · Total 24.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ipswich
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.2
9.6
4.2
3.9
4.5
24.0
23.7
24.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
10.3
9.9
10.8
4.4
4.3
4.4
24.4
24.3
24.4
vs Weaker (32)
9.6
10.3
8.9
4.1
3.7
4.5
23.8
23.3
24.2
% over line
42%
44%
40%
60%
48%
72%
66%
60%
72%
% under line
58%
56%
60%
40%
52%
28%
34%
40%
28%
This opponent (Sunderland) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sunderland
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.2
9.1
4.3
4.2
4.3
22.8
22.4
23.1
vs Stronger (8)
9.8
10.0
9.5
2.5
2.8
2.2
21.6
23.0
20.2
vs Similar (33)
8.7
8.7
8.6
4.7
4.7
4.6
22.9
22.2
23.5
vs Weaker (9)
10.4
10.5
10.4
4.4
4.0
4.8
23.2
22.5
23.8
% over line
46%
46%
46%
60%
54%
65%
64%
62%
65%
% under line
54%
54%
54%
40%
46%
35%
36%
38%
35%
This opponent (Ipswich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.5
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.5
Liverpool
10.3
Manchester City
10.2
Nottingham Forest
10.0
Chelsea
9.9
Brentford
9.9
Ipswich
9.9
Tottenham
9.8
Brighton
9.8
Coventry
9.7
Leeds
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Aston Villa
9.5
Everton
9.4
Sunderland
9.2
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tottenham
4.7
Bournemouth
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Sunderland
4.3
Manchester United
4.2
Hull
4.2
Ipswich
4.2
Newcastle
4.2
Brighton
4.0
Brentford
3.8
Crystal Palace
3.8
Aston Villa
3.8
Manchester City
3.7
Everton
3.7
Coventry
3.7
Fulham
3.6
Liverpool
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
24.0
Aston Villa
23.7
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Chelsea
23.0
Sunderland
22.8
Tottenham
22.7
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Everton
21.9
Manchester United
21.9
Leeds
21.8
Newcastle
21.6
Crystal Palace
21.5
Hull
21.4
Manchester City
21.3
Liverpool
21.0
Coventry
21.0
Fulham
20.2
Brentford
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.8%
@ 1.81-0.9%
Under 9.5
49.2%
@ 1.94+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Betano
1.83
Unibet
1.83
Under
10Bet
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.93
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.4%
@ 1.87+8.7%
Under 3.5
41.6%
@ 1.85-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Superbet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Unibet
1.87
1xBet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
60.2%
@ 1.50-1.0%
Under 21.5
39.8%
@ 2.35+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.53
1xBet
1.46
Under
1xBet
2.43
Superbet
2.27
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ipswich or Draw✓ Hit
69.3%
Avg Implied 63.9% · @ 1.47
Edge
+5.3%
38%
31%
31%
covers Ipswich + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Ipswich or Sunderland✓ Hit
68.8%
Avg Implied 70.6% · @ 1.33
Edge
-1.9%
38%
31%
31%
covers Ipswich + Sunderland
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.34
Unibet
1.34
Draw or Sunderland✗ Miss
62.0%
Avg Implied 65.5% · @ 1.44
Edge
-3.5%
38%
31%
31%
covers Draw + Sunderland
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ipswich over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.9%
@ 1.34+0.6%
Under
30.1%
@ 3.04-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Under
10Bet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.17
Unibet
3.05
Marathonbet
3.02
888Sport
3.00
Ipswich over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
33.8%
@ 2.68-1.2%
Under
66.2%
@ 1.44+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.87
Marathonbet
2.77
BetVictor
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Superbet
2.70
Under
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Ipswich over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.1%
@ 6.51-2.3%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.09+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
7.10
888Sport
7.00
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Ipswich over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 17.44-2.1%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.01+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
888Sport
21.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Sunderland over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.2%
@ 1.33-5.1%
Under
34.8%
@ 3.14+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.27
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Unibet
3.15
Sunderland over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.5%
@ 2.60-7.5%
Under
71.5%
@ 1.46+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.80
Marathonbet
2.70
888Sport
2.63
Betfair
2.63
BetVictor
2.63
Under
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.47
Unibet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Sunderland over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.1%
@ 6.28-5.8%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.10+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.85
1xBet
6.70
888Sport
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Under
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Sunderland over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 16.69-3.5%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
21.00
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ipswich, so a minus line means Ipswich give that many goals of a start and Sunderland receive them. At -1, Ipswich must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ipswich win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ipswich)Actual: Sunderland
Ipswich -2
5.6%
@ 13.60-1.1%
Draw -2
11.3%
@ 7.76-0.4%
Sunderland +2
83.1%
@ 1.11+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
12.00
Unibet
12.00
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.80
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Away
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.08
Handicap -1 (Ipswich)Actual: Draw
Ipswich -1
16.9%
@ 5.72+1.1%
Draw -1
21.1%
@ 4.23-0.2%
Sunderland +1
62.0%
@ 1.44-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
Unibet
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Draw
Marathonbet
4.40
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Away
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Unibet
1.43
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Handicap +1 (Ipswich)Actual: Ipswich
Ipswich +1
69.3%
@ 1.47+7.7%
Draw +1
18.4%
@ 4.17-3.3%
Sunderland -1
12.4%
@ 5.38-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.50
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Superbet
4.30
Unibet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Away
Marathonbet
5.55
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.40
10Bet
5.25
Handicap +2 (Ipswich)Actual: Ipswich
Ipswich +2
87.6%
@ 1.12+8.0%
Draw +2
8.7%
@ 7.05-3.9%
Sunderland -2
3.7%
@ 11.53-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.50
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
12.00
Unibet
11.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ipswich
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
1.13
0.27
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.75
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (18)
0.94
0.39
1.27
0.18
0.43
0.71
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Sunderland) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sunderland
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.46
0.54
0.29
0.76
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.50
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.73
0.50
0.70
0.33
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Ipswich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.3%
@ 1.44+3.4%
Under 0.5
31.7%
@ 2.68-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Superbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
Under
Betfair
2.88
William Hil
2.80
Pinnacle
2.79
Bet365
2.75
10Bet
2.70
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
30.9%
@ 3.06+0.3%
Under 1.5
69.1%
@ 1.35-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.27
Betano
3.25
1xBet
3.24
Marathonbet
3.24
Superbet
3.15
Under
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.7%
@ 8.11+0.2%
Under 2.5
88.3%
@ 1.06-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
9.00
1xBet
8.90
Marathonbet
8.90
Superbet
8.30
William Hil
8.00
Under
Superbet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.07
10Bet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ipswich over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
38.9%
@ 2.23-2.9%
Under
61.1%
@ 1.60+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.30
1xBet
2.27
Betano
2.27
Marathonbet
2.27
Superbet
2.20
Under
10Bet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Ipswich over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.6%
@ 7.47-3.8%
Under
91.4%
@ 1.06+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.60
1xBet
8.60
Superbet
7.20
Unibet
7.00
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
Unibet
1.04
Ipswich over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 19.25-3.6%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Sunderland over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.5%
@ 2.20+6.3%
Under
51.5%
@ 1.61-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.28
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.23
Superbet
2.17
Under
10Bet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.64
Superbet
1.61
Unibet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Sunderland over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.9%
@ 7.26+1.1%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.06-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.30
Marathonbet
8.30
Superbet
6.90
Betano
6.80
Unibet
6.75
Under
10Bet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Sunderland over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 18.75-1.0%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.01+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ipswich
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.47
0.87
0.33
1.00
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.88
0.88
vs Weaker (18)
0.94
0.28
0.82
0.27
1.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Sunderland) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sunderland
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.62
0.62
0.65
0.71
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.64
0.70
0.60
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ipswich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.8%
Under 0.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
44.5%
Under 1.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.5%
Under 2.5
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ipswich over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
46.0%
Under
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ipswich over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ipswich over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
58.6%
Under
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
22.8%
Under
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.02
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
1.01
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.1%
1.06
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.4%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
Unibet
1.04
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.9%
1.10
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.06
Superbet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.07
10Bet
1.07
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.9%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Superbet
1.09
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.6%
1.12
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Betfair
1.10
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.1%
1.06
10Bet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
83.1%
1.11
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.08
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.8%
1.25
Pinnacle
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.5%
1.39
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.37
-
+10.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.0%
1.22
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.17
-
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.7%
1.31
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.27
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
71.6%
1.43
1xBet
1.43
-
-
-
-
+8.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
71.5%
1.46
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.47
Unibet
1.47
Betano
1.47
+7.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ipswich
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chuba Akpom33%
Leif Davis33%
Marcelino Núñez33%
Dara O'Shea0%
Daizen Maeda0%
Kasey McAteer0%
Abdoul Ouattara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Chuba Akpom0%
Dara O'Shea0%
Leif Davis0%
Daizen Maeda0%
Marcelino Núñez0%
Kasey McAteer0%
Abdoul Ouattara0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Chuba Akpom33%
Dara O'Shea0%
Leif Davis0%
Daizen Maeda0%
Marcelino Núñez0%
Kasey McAteer0%
Abdoul Ouattara0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kasey McAteer33%
Chuba Akpom0%
Dara O'Shea0%
Leif Davis0%
Daizen Maeda0%
Marcelino Núñez0%
Abdoul Ouattara0%
Sunderland · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marc Guiu33%
Brian Brobbey22%
Wilson Isidor17%
Enzo Le Fée15%
Habib Diarra14%
Chemsdine Talbi13%
Eliezer Mayenda9%
Nordi Mukiele9%
Bertrand Traoré8%
Simon Adingra7%
Daniel Ballard6%
Trai Hume5%
Chris Rigg5%
Omar Alderete3%
Granit Xhaka3%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Dan Neil0%
Luke O'Nien0%
Reinildo Mandava0%
Lutsharel Geertruida0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Robin Roefs0%
Melker Ellborg0%
Romaine Mundle0%
Jenson Seelt0%
Nilson Angulo0%
Noah Sadiki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Arthur Masuaku50%
Noah Sadiki31%
Reinildo Mandava28%
Trai Hume28%
Habib Diarra27%
Granit Xhaka25%
Dan Neil25%
Melker Ellborg25%
Dennis Cirkin20%
Brian Brobbey19%
Omar Alderete18%
Nordi Mukiele17%
Daniel Ballard16%
Enzo Le Fée15%
Luke O'Nien13%
Simon Adingra13%
Nilson Angulo11%
Robin Roefs11%
Bertrand Traoré8%
Lutsharel Geertruida7%
Romaine Mundle6%
Wilson Isidor6%
Chris Rigg5%
Jenson Seelt0%
Chemsdine Talbi0%
Eliezer Mayenda0%
Marc Guiu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Granit Xhaka17%
Enzo Le Fée15%
Habib Diarra9%
Nordi Mukiele9%
Luke O'Nien7%
Chris Rigg5%
Eliezer Mayenda4%
Reinildo Mandava4%
Chemsdine Talbi3%
Brian Brobbey3%
Omar Alderete3%
Noah Sadiki3%
Trai Hume2%
Bertrand Traoré0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Dan Neil0%
Lutsharel Geertruida0%
Daniel Ballard0%
Wilson Isidor0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Robin Roefs0%
Melker Ellborg0%
Romaine Mundle0%
Jenson Seelt0%
Simon Adingra0%
Nilson Angulo0%
Marc Guiu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Marc Guiu33%
Habib Diarra14%
Romaine Mundle12%
Nilson Angulo11%
Daniel Ballard6%
Brian Brobbey6%
Omar Alderete6%
Wilson Isidor6%
Eliezer Mayenda4%
Chemsdine Talbi3%
Trai Hume2%
Bertrand Traoré0%
Nordi Mukiele0%
Granit Xhaka0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Dan Neil0%
Luke O'Nien0%
Enzo Le Fée0%
Reinildo Mandava0%
Lutsharel Geertruida0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Robin Roefs0%
Melker Ellborg0%
Jenson Seelt0%
Simon Adingra0%
Chris Rigg0%
Noah Sadiki0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Ipswich's squad is €112m less valuable than Sunderland's (€280m vs €392m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Ipswich's attack is €27m less valuable than Sunderland's (€130m vs €157m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Ipswich's midfield is €44m less valuable than Sunderland's (€66m vs €110m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Ipswich's defence is €41m less valuable than Sunderland's (€85m vs €125m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham