The upcoming match between IR Reykjavik and Fylkir in the Iceland: 1. Deild is shaping up to be an open and high-scoring affair, with an expected total of 3.6 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 9.7%.
In recent form, IR Reykjavik has been on a two-game winning run, while Fylkir is coming off a defeat. However, Fylkir's away form against stronger opponents suggests they can still pose a threat. At home, IR Reykjavik has averaged 2.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, while Fylkir has averaged 2 goals scored and 1 conceded when playing away against stronger opponents.
The model's selection is the away win, with a probability of 39%. The suggested picks include Over 1.5, with a probability of 88.4%, and BTTS Yes, with a probability of 70.6%. The home win percentage is 37%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 39%.
Results analysis
The upset of the day came as IR Reykjavik secured a 2-0 home win, extending their 2-game winning run. This result defied the model's prediction of an Away win for Fylkir, which had a pre-match probability of 39%. The model's selection was incorrect, as the pre-match favourite failed to come through. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 88.4%, while BTTS Yes missed, with a probability of 70.6%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
IR Reykjavik win✓ Hit
37.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fylkir win✗ Miss
39.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
IR Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.60
2.29
1.57
1.25
1.62
vs Stronger (3)
2.00
1.67
3.00
3.00
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.68
1.64
2.33
1.58
1.08
1.69
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fylkir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
3.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.37
1.30
2.56
1.39
2.08
1.17
vs Stronger (2)
3.00
1.50
3.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
2.31
1.27
2.60
1.33
1.91
1.18
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (IR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.4%
Under 1.5
11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
69.8%
Under 2.5
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.6%
Under 3.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
70.6%
No
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.7%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
7.9%
2-2
7.2%
1-3
4.9%
3-1
4.7%
0-2
4.5%
2-3
4.4%
IR Reykjavik goals ↓
Fylkir goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.6%
4.1%
4.5%
2.8%
1.3%
1
4.0%
9.7%
8.1%
4.9%
2.2%
2
4.3%
7.9%
7.2%
4.4%
2.0%
3
2.6%
4.7%
4.3%
2.6%
1.2%
4
1.1%
2.1%
1.9%
1.2%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IR Reykjavik goals (down), columns = Fylkir goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Njardvik
2.25
Afturelding
2.00
IR Reykjavik
1.86
Throttur Reykjavik
1.86
HK Kopavogur
1.86
Fylkir
1.62
Völsungur
1.50
Grindavik
1.22
Grotta
1.14
Vestri
0.86
Leiknir R.
0.86
Ægir
0.00
IR Reykjavik is 0.23 points better than Fylkir in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Afturelding
3.71
HK Kopavogur
3.14
Fylkir
2.75
Njardvik
2.75
Throttur Reykjavik
2.14
Leiknir R.
1.86
Grotta
1.86
IR Reykjavik
1.71
Völsungur
1.38
Grindavik
1.22
Vestri
1.14
Ægir
0.67
IR Reykjavik is 1.04 goals worse than Fylkir in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 2.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Throttur Reykjavik
1.29
IR Reykjavik
1.43
Grotta
1.57
HK Kopavogur
1.71
Afturelding
1.86
Njardvik
1.88
Leiknir R.
2.00
Fylkir
2.00
Völsungur
2.00
Grindavik
2.11
Vestri
2.71
Ægir
4.17
IR Reykjavik is 0.57 goals better than Fylkir in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
IR Reykjavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
0.79
0.64
0.94
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.68
0.75
0.67
0.69
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fylkir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.57
1.33
0.56
1.08
0.58
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.15
0.62
1.27
0.60
1.00
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (IR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
IR Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.97
1.50
0.93
0.31
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
2.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.96
0.96
1.58
0.92
0.38
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fylkir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.73
1.22
0.83
1.00
0.58
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.15
0.65
1.33
0.73
0.91
0.55
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (IR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (25)
€1m
AFT (23)
€1m
TR (20)
€1m
NJA (27)
€1m
FYL (21)
€1m
HK (20)
€1m
GRO (25)
€1m
LR (25)
€1m
IR (22)
€1m
VÖL (24)
€1m
ÆGI (29)
€0m
IR Reykjavik and Fylkir have a similar squad value (both €1m).
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Njardvik
Afturelding
HK Kopavogur
Throttur Reykjavik
Völsungur
Grindavik
Grotta
Leiknir R.
Vestri
Ægir