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IR Reykjavik vs Ægir Result & Analysis

Date: 06/08/2026
Time: 19:15
Final 3-2
IR Reykjavik
IR Reykjavik
Vs
64%
19%
16%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ægir
Ægir
Iceland: 1. Deild
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

IR Reykjavik is the clear favourite to win this match, with the model predicting a home win with a 64% probability. This prediction is largely due to the team's strong home form, particularly against weaker opponents, where they average 2.22 goals scored and 1.11 conceded. In contrast, Ægir struggles when visiting stronger teams, averaging just 1.17 goals scored and 3.67 conceded.

The most likely match result is a home win, with the model predicting a total of 3 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favour of IR Reykjavik, with a 9.1% probability. The expected total number of goals is 3.8.

The model's selection is a home win, with a 64% probability, and IR Reykjavik is also the favourite to win at home, with a 63.9% chance. The draw percentage is 19%, while Ægir has a 16% chance of winning. The model's selection to pick over 1.5 goals has a 89.9% probability and is a hit, while over 2.5 goals has a 72.9% probability and is also a hit.

Results analysis

The win extends IR Reykjavik's run, their second in a row following a 3-2 victory over Ægir. The final score matched one of the most likely outcomes, with a 3-2 home win being the most probable. The model correctly picked IR Reykjavik as the favourite, with a 64% chance of winning. The model's call was correct. The model's selection of IR Reykjavik to win hit the mark. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals also hit, with a 89.9% probability. The model's selection of Over 2.5 goals also hit, with a 72.9% probability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

IR Reykjavik win✓ Hit
64.4%
Avg Implied 61.7% · @ 1.46
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.52
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Dafabet
1.48
1xBet
1.46
Draw✗ Miss
19.1%
Avg Implied 19.7% · @ 4.57
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.90
Dafabet
4.90
BetVictor
4.80
Betfair
4.75
10Bet
4.60
Ægir win✗ Miss
16.5%
Avg Implied 18.5% · @ 4.88
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
5.50
10Bet
5.10
1xBet
5.07
Betfair
5.00
Dafabet
5.00

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

IR ReykjavikIR Reykjavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L13L43W33D32W02L23L15L00D20WH·FYL13/09A·NJA01/02H·KA 07/02A·KR 14/02H·GRI26/02A·VIK04/03H·AFT29/03A·HK 14/07A·GRI18/07H·FYL25/07
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.602.361.571.251.62
vs Stronger (4)2.502.003.503.001.501.00
vs Similar (25)1.601.522.171.331.081.69
vs Weaker (1)3.002.00--3.002.00
Clean sheet %23% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ægir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ÆgirÆgir

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-712L04L13L12L20W71W21W03L16L01LH·VES07/02A·STJ17/02A·KEF27/02A·HK 07/03H·REY28/03A·ÁRB05/04A·KA 14/05H·BRE12/06A·GRO18/07H·NJA28/07
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.332.971.142.501.503.38
vs Stronger (30)1.332.971.142.501.503.38
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (IR Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%21%3%07%117%221%319%415%518%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.9%
@ 1.06+2.5%
Under 1.5
10.1%
@ 7.34-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Under
Betfair
8.00
888Sport
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
7.10
Bet365
7.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
72.9%
@ 1.27+0.5%
Under 2.5
27.1%
@ 3.33-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Under
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.4%
@ 1.72-1.2%
Under 3.5
47.6%
@ 2.00+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.76
888Sport
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Superbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Under
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
2.02
SBO
2.00
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.5%
@ 1.38-0.1%
No
33.5%
@ 2.75+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
No
BetVictor
2.88
1xBet
2.82
William Hil
2.80
Betfair
2.80
888Sport
2.80

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.1%@ 7.94+3.7%
1-1
7.9%@ 9.56+3.4%
3-1
7.7%@ 9.35+3.1%
2-0
7.3%@ 10.40+3.1%
3-0
6.1%@ 11.90+2.5%
2-2
5.7%@ 11.14+1.9%
1-0
5.0%@ 12.50+1.6%
4-1
4.9%@ 14.04+1.8%
IR Reykjavik goals ↓
Ægir goals →
01234
03.0%2.1%1.8%0.7%0.2%
15.0%7.9%4.5%1.9%0.6%
27.3%9.1%5.7%2.4%0.8%
36.1%7.7%4.8%2.0%0.6%
43.9%4.9%3.1%1.3%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IR Reykjavik goals (down), columns = Ægir goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Afturelding
2.22
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Njardvik
2.00
Fylkir
1.78
Völsungur
1.67
IR Reykjavik
1.62
HK Kopavogur
1.62
Grindavik
1.40
Leiknir R.
1.12
Grotta
0.89
Vestri
0.75
Ægir
0.00
IR Reykjavik is 1.62 points better than Ægir in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 0.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Afturelding
3.33
HK Kopavogur
3.12
Fylkir
2.78
Throttur Reykjavik
2.75
Njardvik
2.44
Leiknir R.
1.88
IR Reykjavik
1.62
Grotta
1.56
Völsungur
1.56
Grindavik
1.50
Vestri
1.00
Ægir
0.86
IR Reykjavik is 0.77 goals better than Ægir in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 0.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Throttur Reykjavik
1.38
Afturelding
1.44
IR Reykjavik
1.62
Leiknir R.
1.75
Grotta
1.78
Fylkir
1.89
Njardvik
1.89
Völsungur
1.89
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Grindavik
2.20
Vestri
2.62
Ægir
4.57
IR Reykjavik is 2.95 goals better than Ægir in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 4.57).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

IR ReykjavikIR Reykjavik

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L11D12L32W11D00D00D04L00D10WH·FYL13/09A·NJA01/02H·KA 07/02A·KR 14/02H·GRI26/02A·VIK04/03H·AFT29/03A·HK 14/07A·GRI18/07H·FYL25/07
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.630.790.640.940.62
vs Stronger (4)1.250.751.001.501.500.00
vs Similar (25)0.720.600.750.500.690.69
vs Weaker (1)3.001.00--3.001.00
Clean sheet %60% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Ægir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ÆgirÆgir

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L02L00D12L00D21W21W02L04L01LH·VES07/02A·STJ17/02A·KEF27/02A·HK 07/03H·REY28/03A·ÁRB05/04A·KA 14/05H·BRE12/06A·GRO18/07H·NJA28/07
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.430.361.360.621.50
vs Stronger (30)0.501.430.361.360.621.50
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (IR Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

IR ReykjavikIR Reykjavik

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L31W01L21W02L23L11D00D10WH·FYL13/09A·NJA01/02H·KA 07/02A·KR 14/02H·GRI26/02A·VIK04/03H·AFT29/03A·HK 14/07A·GRI18/07H·FYL25/07
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.971.570.930.311.00
vs Stronger (4)1.251.252.501.500.001.00
vs Similar (25)0.880.921.420.830.381.00
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ægir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ÆgirÆgir

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D02L13L00D20W50W00D01L12L00DH·VES07/02A·STJ17/02A·KEF27/02A·HK 07/03H·REY28/03A·ÁRB05/04A·KA 14/05H·BRE12/06A·GRO18/07H·NJA28/07
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.530.791.140.881.88
vs Stronger (30)0.831.530.791.140.881.88
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (IR Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.589.9%1.06
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
+2.5%✓ Hit
Over 2.572.9%1.27
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
+0.5%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
TR (19)
€1m
NJA (21)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
GRO (17)
€1m
IR (17)
€1m
VÖL (19)
€1m
ÆGI (14)
€0m
IR Reykjavik and Ægir have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AFT (5)
€1m
VES (7)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
TR (5)
€0m
NJA (7)
€0m
GRO (5)
€0m
IR (6)
€0m
ÆGI (3)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
VÖL (4)
€0m
IR Reykjavik and Ægir have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (6)
€0m
TR (6)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
NJA (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
VÖL (6)
€0m
ÆGI (5)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
IR (4)
€0m
GRO (3)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
IR Reykjavik and Ægir have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NJA (9)
€0m
LR (9)
€0m
AFT (7)
€0m
FYL (6)
€0m
TR (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
GRO (9)
€0m
IR (7)
€0m
VÖL (9)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
ÆGI (6)
€0m
IR Reykjavik and Ægir have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
IR wins
0
Draws
0
ÆGI wins

Head-to-head

IR Reykjavik vs Ægir · H/A from IR
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

IR ReykjavikIR Reykjavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/07/26HIR Vs Fylkir2-0
18/07/26AGrindavik Vs IR0-0
14/07/26AHK Kopavogur Vs IR5-1
29/03/26HIR Vs Afturelding2-3
04/03/26AVikingur Reykjavik Vs IR2-0
26/02/26HIR Vs Grindavik3-2
14/02/26AKR Reykjavik Vs IR3-3
07/02/26HIR Vs KA Akureyri4-3
01/02/26ANjardvik Vs IR3-1
13/09/25HIR Vs Fylkir1-2

ÆgirÆgir

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/07/26HÆGI Vs Njardvik0-1
18/07/26AGrotta Vs ÆGI6-1
12/06/26HÆGI Vs Breidablik0-3
14/05/26AKA Akureyri Vs ÆGI1-2
05/04/26AÁrbær Vs ÆGI1-7
28/03/26HÆGI Vs Reynir2-0
07/03/26AHK Kopavogur Vs ÆGI2-1
27/02/26AKeflavik Vs ÆGI3-1
17/02/26AStjarnan Vs ÆGI4-0
07/02/26HÆGI Vs Vestri1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

IR Reykjavik
IR Reykjavik
Iceland: 1. Deild
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDW1.56
HomeLWWLW1.91
AwayLDLLD1.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%59%29%
AVG goals3.103.322.93
Over 1.5 %78%73%82%
Over 2.5 %56%59%54%
Over 3.5 %40%41%39%
Scored1.641.951.39
Conceded1.461.361.54
BTTS66%64%68%
Clean Sheet24%27%21%
Corners---
Cards---
Ægir
Ægir
Iceland: 1. Deild
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLL0.61
HomeDLWLL0.53
AwayLLWWL0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %17%12%21%
AVG goals4.083.354.74
Over 1.5 %89%76%100%
Over 2.5 %86%71%100%
Over 3.5 %69%59%79%
Scored1.251.001.47
Conceded2.832.353.26
BTTS67%53%79%
Clean Sheet6%12%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AftureldingAfturelding920
67%
2.2
3013+17
4.8
100%
78%
78%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1003.31.4
-
2NjardvikNjardvik918
67%
2.0
2217+5
4.3
89%
78%
78%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.41.9
-
3Throttur ReykjavikThrottur Reykjavik816
62%
2.0
2211+11
4.1
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.81.4
-
4FylkirFylkir916
56%
1.8
2517+8
4.7
100%
89%
78%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.81.9
-
5VölsungurVölsungur915
56%
1.7
1417-3
3.4
89%
56%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.9
-
6GrindavikGrindavik1014
40%
1.4
1522-7
3.7
70%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.2
-
7HK KopavogurHK Kopavogur813
50%
1.6
2516+9
5.1
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0003.12.0
-
8IR ReykjavikIR Reykjavik813
50%
1.6
1313+0
3.2
75%
62%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.6
-
9Leiknir R.Leiknir R.89
38%
1.1
1514+1
3.6
88%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.8
-
10GrottaGrotta98
22%
0.9
1416-2
3.3
89%
67%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.8
-
11VestriVestri86
25%
0.8
821-13
3.6
88%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.6
-
12ÆgirÆgir70
0%
0.0
632-26
5.4
86%
71%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.94.6
-
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →

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