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IR Reykjavik vs Grotta Result & Analysis

Date: 08/09/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 2-1
IR Reykjavik
IR Reykjavik
Vs
61%
24%
15%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Grotta
Grotta
Iceland: 1. Deild
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

IR Reykjavik are the clear favourites, with a 61% chance of triumph, a 24% draw probability and a 15% chance of Grotta taking the win. The match is expected to see 2.8 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 25% probability. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 for the home side, with a 11.4% chance. IR Reykjavik, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, average 1.73 goals scored and 1.18 conceded. Grotta, on the road to a similar opponent, average 0.83 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with a 77.6% probability. The recent form shows IR Reykjavik coming off a defeat but still strong, while Grotta has endured three straight losses. All figures are presented in plain percentages, with no additional commentary.

Results analysis

After a shaky start, IR Reykjavik’s recent form has begun to recover, with the win over Völsungur extending their run of victories. The model predicted a home win with a 61% probability, and the final score of 2-1 confirmed that call. The pre-match favourite was indeed the home side, and the model’s pick was correct. The model’s single suggested selection, Over 1.5 goals, came with a 77.6% probability and it hit, as the match produced three goals. All other model predictions were settled and matched the outcome, underscoring the accuracy of the Pythia forecast for this Icelandic fixture.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

IR Reykjavik win✓ Hit
61.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grotta win✗ Miss
15.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

IR ReykjavikIR Reykjavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W30W01L10W11D10W22D11D21W11DH·AFT04/07H·GRI12/07H·KEF18/07H·LEI25/07A·DAL31/07H·THR09/08A·IBV14/08H·NJA18/08A·FJO22/08A·THO31/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.781.481.921.541.641.43
vs Stronger (4)2.252.253.003.501.501.00
vs Similar (23)1.701.351.731.181.671.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %19% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Grotta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrottaGrotta

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L12L14L31W13L23L13L12L01L21WA·THO04/07A·KEF11/07H·AFT18/07H·GRI25/07A·LEI30/07H·DAL10/08A·THR14/08A·IBV18/08A·NJA22/08H·FJO31/08
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.302.231.562.121.002.36
vs Stronger (16)1.122.311.122.001.122.62
vs Similar (14)1.502.142.002.250.832.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (IR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%315%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.6%
Under 1.5
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.6%
Under 2.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.4%
Under 3.5
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.3%
No
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.4%
1-1
11.3%
1-0
10.9%
2-1 ✓
9.8%
3-0
7.3%
0-0
7.2%
3-1
6.3%
1-2
4.4%
IR Reykjavik goals ↓
Grotta goals →
01234
07.2%4.3%2.3%0.7%0.1%
111%11%4.4%1.3%0.3%
211%9.8%4.2%1.2%0.3%
37.3%6.3%2.7%0.8%0.2%
43.5%3.0%1.3%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IR Reykjavik goals (down), columns = Grotta goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.77
Afturelding
1.72
Keflavik
1.64
IR Reykjavik
1.58
Fjolnir
1.58
Njardvik
1.50
Throttur Reykjavik
1.36
Leiknir R.
1.27
Thor Akureyri
1.18
Grindavik
1.18
Grotta
0.73
Dalvík / Reynir
0.59
IR Reykjavik is 0.86 points better than Grotta in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 0.73).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.27
Grindavik
1.82
Keflavik
1.72
Afturelding
1.72
Throttur Reykjavik
1.68
Njardvik
1.55
Leiknir R.
1.50
Fjolnir
1.46
Thor Akureyri
1.45
IR Reykjavik
1.42
Grotta
1.41
Dalvík / Reynir
1.05
IR Reykjavik is 0.01 goals better than Grotta in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.41).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Keflavik
1.16
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.23
Fjolnir
1.29
Njardvik
1.32
Throttur Reykjavik
1.41
IR Reykjavik
1.42
Afturelding
1.48
Leiknir R.
1.55
Thor Akureyri
1.73
Grindavik
2.09
Dalvík / Reynir
2.23
Grotta
2.27
IR Reykjavik is 0.86 goals better than Grotta in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 2.27).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

IR ReykjavikIR Reykjavik

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D01L10W00D10W01L00D11D10WH·AFT04/07H·GRI12/07H·KEF18/07H·LEI25/07A·DAL31/07H·THR09/08A·IBV14/08H·NJA18/08A·FJO22/08A·THO31/08
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.740.700.770.690.710.71
vs Stronger (4)0.750.751.001.000.500.50
vs Similar (23)0.740.700.730.640.750.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %48% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Grotta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrottaGrotta

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W11D10W00D12L10W02L01L11DA·THO04/07A·KEF11/07H·AFT18/07H·GRI25/07A·LEI30/07H·DAL10/08A·THR14/08A·IBV18/08A·NJA22/08H·FJO31/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.900.810.880.360.93
vs Stronger (16)0.620.750.750.620.500.88
vs Similar (14)0.571.070.881.120.171.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (IR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

IR ReykjavikIR Reykjavik

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W30W00D00D11D00D21W11D10W01LH·AFT04/07H·GRI12/07H·KEF18/07H·LEI25/07A·DAL31/07H·THR09/08A·IBV14/08H·NJA18/08A·FJO22/08A·THO31/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.040.781.150.850.930.71
vs Stronger (4)1.501.502.002.501.000.50
vs Similar (23)0.960.651.000.550.920.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %44% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Grotta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrottaGrotta

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L02L03L21W13L11D03L10W00D10WA·THO04/07A·KEF11/07H·AFT18/07H·GRI25/07A·LEI30/07H·DAL10/08A·THR14/08A·IBV18/08A·NJA22/08H·FJO31/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.330.751.250.641.43
vs Stronger (16)0.501.560.381.380.621.75
vs Similar (14)0.931.071.121.120.671.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (IR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IV (18)
€2m
TA (21)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
TR (19)
€1m
NJA (21)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
GRO (17)
€1m
IR (17)
€1m
IR Reykjavik and Grotta have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TA (7)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
AFT (5)
€1m
TR (5)
€0m
NJA (7)
€0m
GRO (5)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
IR (6)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
IR Reykjavik and Grotta have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IV (6)
€1m
TR (6)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
NJA (5)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
IR (4)
€0m
GRO (3)
€0m
IR Reykjavik and Grotta have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IV (6)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
NJA (9)
€0m
LR (9)
€0m
AFT (7)
€0m
TR (8)
€0m
GRO (9)
€0m
IR (7)
€0m
IR Reykjavik and Grotta have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
IR wins
0
Draws
0
GRO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

IR Reykjavik vs Grotta · H/A from IR
DateH/AGameScore
26/06/24AGrotta Vs IR1-3

IR ReykjavikIR Reykjavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/24AThor Akureyri Vs IR1-1
22/08/24AFjolnir Vs IR1-2
18/08/24HIR Vs Njardvik1-1
14/08/24AIBV Vestmannaeyjar Vs IR2-2
09/08/24HIR Vs Throttur Reykjavik1-0
31/07/24ADalvík / Reynir Vs IR1-1
25/07/24HIR Vs Leiknir R.1-0
18/07/24HIR Vs Keflavik0-1
12/07/24HIR Vs Grindavik3-0
04/07/24HIR Vs Afturelding3-0

GrottaGrotta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/24HGRO Vs Fjolnir2-1
22/08/24ANjardvik Vs GRO1-0
18/08/24AIBV Vestmannaeyjar Vs GRO2-1
14/08/24AThrottur Reykjavik Vs GRO3-1
10/08/24HGRO Vs Dalvík / Reynir2-3
30/07/24ALeiknir R. Vs GRO3-1
25/07/24HGRO Vs Grindavik3-1
18/07/24HGRO Vs Afturelding1-4
11/07/24AKeflavik Vs GRO2-1
04/07/24AThor Akureyri Vs GRO3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

IR Reykjavik
IR Reykjavik
Iceland: 1. Deild
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDWD1.67
HomeWLWWD1.69
AwayWDDWD1.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%46%43%
AVG goals3.263.463.07
Over 1.5 %81%77%86%
Over 2.5 %56%54%57%
Over 3.5 %33%38%29%
Scored1.781.921.64
Conceded1.481.541.43
BTTS67%62%71%
Clean Sheet19%31%7%
Corners---
Cards---
Grotta
Grotta
Iceland: 1. Deild
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.02
HomeLLWLW1.52
AwayLLLLL0.43
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%44%4%
AVG goals3.483.703.22
Over 1.5 %86%89%83%
Over 2.5 %76%78%74%
Over 3.5 %54%56%52%
Scored1.481.811.09
Conceded2.001.892.13
BTTS74%70%78%
Clean Sheet12%19%4%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AftureldingAfturelding2543
52%
1.7
4337+6
3.2
80%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.71.5
-
2KeflavikKeflavik2541
44%
1.6
4329+14
2.9
72%
60%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.71.2
-
3IBV VestmannaeyjarIBV Vestmannaeyjar2239
50%
1.8
5027+23
3.5
86%
77%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.31.2
-
4FjolnirFjolnir2438
42%
1.6
3531+4
2.8
62%
50%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
5IR ReykjavikIR Reykjavik2438
42%
1.6
3434+0
2.8
83%
58%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.4
-
6NjardvikNjardvik2233
36%
1.5
3429+5
2.9
68%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.3
-
7Throttur ReykjavikThrottur Reykjavik2230
36%
1.4
3731+6
3.1
73%
55%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.4
-
8Leiknir R.Leiknir R.2228
36%
1.3
3334-1
3.0
64%
55%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.5
-
9GrindavikGrindavik2226
27%
1.2
4046-6
3.9
91%
82%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.1
-
10Thor AkureyriThor Akureyri2226
27%
1.2
3238-6
3.2
91%
59%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.7
-
11GrottaGrotta2216
18%
0.7
3150-19
3.7
91%
82%
55%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.42.3
-
12Dalvík / ReynirDalvík / Reynir2213
9%
0.6
2349-26
3.3
77%
59%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
Iceland: 1. Deild 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →

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