The contest between Ironi Tiberias and Maccabi Petah Tikva is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. The expected goal total sits at 2.7, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.3% chance. Ironi Tiberias, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. Maccabi Petah Tikva, on the road, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.18 conceded versus similar teams. The home win probability is 40%, the draw 28%, and the away win 32%. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 with a 76.9% chance, and Under 3.5 with a 70.8% chance. Ironi Tiberias has just returned from a defeat, while Maccabi Petah Tikva is riding a four-game winning streak. The match is poised to be a tight affair, with the home side holding a slight edge yet both teams capable of turning the tide.
Results analysis
The upset came early, with Ironi Tiberias unable to convert their home form into a win, as Maccabi Petah Tikva secured a 0-1 victory. The pre-match favourite, a home win, had a 40% probability but the model was wrong. The model’s other selections also fell short: Over 1.5, with a 76.9% chance, missed, while Under 3.5, at 70.8%, hit. The match finished 0-1, an away win that snapped Ironi Tiberias’ losing streak and extended Maccabi Petah Tikva’s four-game winning run. The final score matched the expected total of two goals, but the actual outcome defied the model’s predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ironi Tiberias win✗ Miss
39.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva win✓ Hit
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ironi Tiberias
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.97
1.80
0.67
1.67
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.50
1.00
1.33
0.67
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (6)
2.67
0.83
3.67
0.67
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Petah Tikva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.03
1.56
0.88
2.07
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.75
1.08
1.54
1.00
2.00
1.18
vs Weaker (6)
2.00
0.83
1.67
0.33
2.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Tiberias) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.9%
Under 1.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.4%
Under 2.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.2%
Under 3.5
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.5%
No
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
2-1
8.8%
1-0
8.2%
1-2
7.8%
0-0
7.7%
0-1 ✓
7.1%
2-0
6.9%
2-2
5.6%
Ironi Tiberias goals ↓
Maccabi Petah Tikva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
7.1%
5.3%
2.3%
0.7%
1
8.2%
13%
7.8%
3.3%
1.1%
2
6.9%
8.8%
5.6%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.3%
4.2%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.2%
1.5%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ironi Tiberias goals (down), columns = Maccabi Petah Tikva goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Petah Tikva
2.03
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.92
Ironi Tiberias
1.81
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.62
Hapoel Acre
1.51
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.41
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.38
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.35
Bnei Yehuda
1.30
Hapoel Afula
1.24
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.24
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.19
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.18
Kafr Qasim
1.14
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.14
Agudat Sport Ashdod
0.59
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
0.00
Ironi Tiberias is 0.22 points worse than Maccabi Petah Tikva in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 2.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.97
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.68
Ironi Tiberias
1.54
Bnei Yehuda
1.38
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.35
Hapoel Acre
1.35
Hapoel Afula
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.30
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.27
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.22
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.19
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.19
Kafr Qasim
1.16
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.16
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.00
Agudat Sport Ashdod
0.70
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
0.00
Ironi Tiberias is 0.43 goals worse than Maccabi Petah Tikva in terms of goals scored per game (1.54 vs 1.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hapoel Petah Tikva
0.84
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
0.86
Maccabi Petah Tikva
0.92
Ironi Tiberias
1.03
Hapoel Acre
1.05
Kafr Qasim
1.27
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.27
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.27
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.32
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.35
Hapoel Afula
1.38
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.41
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.49
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.55
Bnei Yehuda
1.59
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
2.00
Agudat Sport Ashdod
2.11
Ironi Tiberias is 0.11 goals worse than Maccabi Petah Tikva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 0.92).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ironi Tiberias
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.87
0.47
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.50
0.67
0.42
0.67
0.58
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.67
1.67
0.67
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Petah Tikva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
0.75
0.31
1.00
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.50
0.69
0.31
1.00
0.73
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.83
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Tiberias) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ironi Tiberias
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.43
0.93
0.20
0.93
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.50
0.67
0.25
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.17
2.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Petah Tikva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.47
0.81
0.56
1.07
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.58
0.85
0.69
1.00
0.45
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Ironi Tiberias) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ironi Tiberias over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Petah Tikva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Maccabi Petah Tikva · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Wilson Harris33%
Anas Mahamid22%
Vitalie Damașcan12%
Renato Gojković11%
Alon Azugi11%
Luka Štor8%
Tamir Glazer7%
Ido Cohen7%
Muhammad Handy6%
Liran Hazan6%
Idan Vered5%
Marco Wolff0%
Plamen Galabov0%
Andreas Karo0%
Déinner Quiñones0%
Rushine De Reuck0%
Eyal Golasa0%
Aviv Salem0%
Eden Shamir0%
Yarden Cohen0%
Jordy Soladio0%
Arad Bar0%
Amer Altoury0%
Or Roizman0%
Niv Yehoshua0%
Guy Deznet0%
Gal Gabi Maatuk0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gal Gabi Maatuk100%
Andreas Karo42%
Jordy Soladio29%
Eyal Golasa27%
Yarden Cohen27%
Rushine De Reuck25%
Muhammad Handy25%
Niv Yehoshua24%
Tamir Glazer21%
Aviv Salem19%
Plamen Galabov15%
Idan Vered15%
Marco Wolff13%
Vitalie Damașcan12%
Renato Gojković11%
Wilson Harris11%
Alon Azugi11%
Eden Shamir11%
Ido Cohen7%
Anas Mahamid6%
Liran Hazan6%
Déinner Quiñones0%
Luka Štor0%
Arad Bar0%
Amer Altoury0%
Or Roizman0%
Guy Deznet0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yarden Cohen13%
Vitalie Damașcan12%
Liran Hazan11%
Idan Vered10%
Niv Yehoshua10%
Aviv Salem6%
Marco Wolff0%
Renato Gojković0%
Plamen Galabov0%
Andreas Karo0%
Déinner Quiñones0%
Rushine De Reuck0%
Wilson Harris0%
Eyal Golasa0%
Luka Štor0%
Muhammad Handy0%
Anas Mahamid0%
Alon Azugi0%
Eden Shamir0%
Jordy Soladio0%
Arad Bar0%
Tamir Glazer0%
Amer Altoury0%
Or Roizman0%
Guy Deznet0%
Gal Gabi Maatuk0%
Ido Cohen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vitalie Damașcan19%
Wilson Harris11%
Anas Mahamid11%
Liran Hazan11%
Idan Vered10%
Tamir Glazer7%
Eden Shamir5%
Marco Wolff0%
Renato Gojković0%
Plamen Galabov0%
Andreas Karo0%
Déinner Quiñones0%
Rushine De Reuck0%
Eyal Golasa0%
Luka Štor0%
Muhammad Handy0%
Alon Azugi0%
Aviv Salem0%
Yarden Cohen0%
Jordy Soladio0%
Arad Bar0%
Amer Altoury0%
Or Roizman0%
Niv Yehoshua0%
Guy Deznet0%
Gal Gabi Maatuk0%
Ido Cohen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MPT (25)
€6m
HPT (22)
€6m
HRG (26)
€5m
IT (24)
€5m
BY (26)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
HKS (14)
€2m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
Ironi Tiberias and Maccabi Petah Tikva have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MPT (11)
€3m
IT (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (6)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
HKS (7)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
Ironi Tiberias and Maccabi Petah Tikva have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HPT (5)
€1m
HRG (6)
€1m
MPT (4)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
BY (5)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HKS (2)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
Ironi Tiberias and Maccabi Petah Tikva have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (11)
€2m
MPT (10)
€2m
IT (10)
€2m
BY (12)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
HKS (5)
€0m
MKJ (4)
€0m
Ironi Tiberias and Maccabi Petah Tikva have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Israel: Liga Leumit 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →