İstanbulspor are the clear favorites, with a 54% chance of victory, 26% for a draw and 20% for Fatih Karagümrük. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, with the most probable total being two goals at a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.3% chance. İstanbulspor, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Fatih Karagümrük, on the road, averages 1.15 scored and 1.69 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.1%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.7%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.3%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.2%) and Under 5.5 (94.2%). İstanbulspor’s recent form shows a win-win-loss-win-win streak, whereas Fatih Karagümrük is on a two-game winning run, both coming off recent defeats and victories respectively.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, İstanbulspor, fell short as the match finished 1-1, a draw that extended both sides' recent streaks of mixed results. The model had picked a home win with a 54% probability, but that call was wrong. Every suggested selection was a hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.3%, Under 6.5 at 97.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.7%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.6%, and Under 5.5 at 94.2%. All probabilities were expressed as percentages, and the final score of 1-1 confirmed the draw.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
İstanbulspor win✗ Miss
54.4%
Avg Implied 31.4% · @ 2.90
Edge
+23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.09
William Hil
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Betano
2.95
1xBet
2.95
Draw✓ Hit
25.8%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.31
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.58
Superbet
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.36
1xBet
3.36
Fatih Karagümrük win✗ Miss
19.8%
Avg Implied 41.1% · @ 2.21
Edge
-21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.32
Unibet
2.28
Dafabet
2.27
Betano
2.27
Pinnacle
2.24
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
İstanbulspor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.60
1.57
2.00
1.62
1.25
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
3.75
0.50
5.00
2.00
2.50
vs Similar (26)
1.65
1.27
1.75
1.50
1.57
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Fatih Karagümrük) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fatih Karagümrük
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.43
1.14
1.14
1.06
1.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.75
0.80
1.80
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (22)
1.23
1.32
1.33
0.78
1.15
1.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (İstanbulspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.6%
@ 1.26+3.0%
Under 1.5
23.4%
@ 3.50-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Unibet
1.26
Under
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.69
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.1%
@ 1.85+0.8%
Under 2.5
48.9%
@ 1.88-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.85
Betano
1.85
Unibet
1.84
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Betfair
1.91
SBO
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.0%
@ 3.10-0.8%
Under 3.5
71.0%
@ 1.32+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Pinnacle
3.19
Betfair
3.10
Unibet
3.05
Under
Betfair
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.5%
@ 1.67-2.7%
No
47.5%
@ 2.06+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
William Hil
1.67
BetVictor
1.67
No
Betfair
2.15
Superbet
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.3%@ 6.08+5.0%
1-0
10.4%@ 8.98+5.5%
2-0
10.1%@ 14.12+6.9%
2-1
9.8%@ 9.59+5.2%
0-0
7.7%@ 10.16+3.3%
3-0
5.9%@ 31.94+4.5%
3-1
5.7%@ 21.51+3.6%
1-2
5.5%@ 8.25+0.1%
İstanbulspor goals ↓
Fatih Karagümrük goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
5.3%
3.1%
1.0%
0.2%
1
10%
12%
5.5%
1.8%
0.4%
2
10%
9.8%
4.8%
1.5%
0.4%
3
5.9%
5.7%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.6%
2.5%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = İstanbulspor goals (down), columns = Fatih Karagümrük goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Batman Petrolspor
2.60
Bursaspor
2.40
Sarıyer
2.00
Kayserispor
2.00
Iğdır FK
1.80
Mardin 1969
1.80
Keçiörengücü
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.60
Fatih Karagümrük
1.60
Muğlaspor
1.60
Bandırmaspor
1.20
Antalyaspor
1.20
Pendikspor
1.00
Vanspor FK
0.80
Esenler Erokspor
0.80
Bodrum FK
0.80
Sivasspor
0.60
Ümraniyespor
0.60
İstanbulspor
0.40
Boluspor
0.00
İstanbulspor is 1.20 points worse than Fatih Karagümrük in terms of average points per game (0.40 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Keçiörengücü
2.40
Batman Petrolspor
2.00
Bursaspor
2.00
Manisa F.K.
2.00
Antalyaspor
1.60
Sarıyer
1.60
Mardin 1969
1.60
Iğdır FK
1.40
Pendikspor
1.40
Kayserispor
1.40
Fatih Karagümrük
1.20
Vanspor FK
1.00
Bandırmaspor
1.00
Sivasspor
1.00
İstanbulspor
1.00
Ümraniyespor
0.80
Muğlaspor
0.60
Esenler Erokspor
0.40
Bodrum FK
0.40
Boluspor
0.20
İstanbulspor is 0.20 goals worse than Fatih Karagümrük in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Muğlaspor
0.40
Bandırmaspor
0.60
Esenler Erokspor
0.60
Mardin 1969
0.60
Bursaspor
0.60
Kayserispor
0.60
Sarıyer
0.80
Batman Petrolspor
0.80
Iğdır FK
0.80
Bodrum FK
0.80
Ümraniyespor
1.20
Fatih Karagümrük
1.20
Keçiörengücü
1.60
Sivasspor
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.60
Antalyaspor
2.00
Vanspor FK
2.20
Boluspor
2.20
Pendikspor
2.20
İstanbulspor
2.60
İstanbulspor is 1.40 goals worse than Fatih Karagümrük in terms of goals conceded per game (2.60 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Esenler Erokspor
61%
Bandırmaspor
60%
Bursaspor
59%
Manisa F.K.
55%
Antalyaspor
55%
Kayserispor
53%
Batman Petrolspor
52%
Ümraniyespor
52%
Pendikspor
51%
Sarıyer
50%
Iğdır FK
49%
Mardin 1969
49%
Sivasspor
48%
Bodrum FK
46%
Keçiörengücü
45%
Fatih Karagümrük
45%
İstanbulspor
44%
Muğlaspor
43%
Vanspor FK
42%
Boluspor
41%
İstanbulspor is 0.8 percentage points worse than Fatih Karagümrük in terms of average possession (44% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
İstanbulspor
For 3.9 · Against 4.5 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 12.0 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fatih Karagümrük
For 2.4 · Against 5.0 · Total 7.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 13.6 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
İstanbulspor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.3
8.1
8.5
3.9
3.2
4.6
23.1
22.1
24.1
vs Stronger (7)
9.8
9.7
10.0
2.3
1.0
4.0
20.4
19.7
21.5
vs Similar (43)
8.1
7.8
8.3
4.1
3.6
4.7
23.4
22.4
24.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
35%
45%
52%
42%
62%
60%
48%
73%
% under line
60%
65%
55%
48%
58%
38%
40%
52%
27%
This opponent (Fatih Karagümrük) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fatih Karagümrük
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.9
9.0
3.8
4.0
3.5
28.6
29.4
27.8
vs Stronger (13)
9.5
9.3
9.7
3.5
2.9
4.2
25.4
26.0
24.8
vs Similar (37)
8.7
8.7
8.7
3.9
4.4
3.3
29.8
30.6
28.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
42%
43%
58%
65%
50%
93%
92%
95%
% under line
58%
58%
57%
42%
35%
50%
7%
8%
5%
This opponent (İstanbulspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kayserispor
10.0
Sivasspor
9.7
Bodrum FK
9.3
Antalyaspor
9.2
Bursaspor
9.1
Bandırmaspor
9.1
Ümraniyespor
9.0
Iğdır FK
8.9
Esenler Erokspor
8.8
Fatih Karagümrük
8.8
Mardin 1969
8.7
Manisa F.K.
8.6
Pendikspor
8.5
İstanbulspor
8.3
Batman Petrolspor
8.3
Keçiörengücü
8.3
Vanspor FK
8.3
Boluspor
8.2
Sarıyer
7.9
Muğlaspor
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Batman Petrolspor
6.7
Muğlaspor
6.7
Antalyaspor
5.3
Sarıyer
5.1
Vanspor FK
5.1
Pendikspor
5.1
Boluspor
5.0
Esenler Erokspor
5.0
Sivasspor
5.0
Manisa F.K.
4.9
Iğdır FK
4.8
İstanbulspor
4.7
Bandırmaspor
4.6
Keçiörengücü
4.6
Kayserispor
4.5
Bursaspor
4.4
Fatih Karagümrük
4.4
Ümraniyespor
4.2
Bodrum FK
4.1
Mardin 1969
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Muğlaspor
33.0
Bursaspor
29.1
Fatih Karagümrük
29.0
Vanspor FK
27.8
Antalyaspor
27.2
Pendikspor
26.8
Boluspor
25.7
Batman Petrolspor
25.0
Kayserispor
24.8
Bandırmaspor
24.1
Bodrum FK
24.0
Sarıyer
23.6
Manisa F.K.
23.6
Keçiörengücü
23.5
Iğdır FK
23.5
İstanbulspor
23.4
Sivasspor
23.2
Ümraniyespor
23.1
Esenler Erokspor
22.8
Mardin 1969
21.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
31.5%
@ 2.27-9.2%
Under 9.5
68.5%
@ 1.55+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.42
Superbet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.21
Pinnacle
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.62
1xBet
1.58
Superbet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.53
Betano
1.50
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.7%
Under 3.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
66.8%
Under 21.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
İstanbulspor or Draw✓ Hit
80.2%
Avg Implied 59.1% · @ 1.55
Edge
+21.1%
54%
26%
20%
covers İstanbulspor + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Betfair
1.57
BetVictor
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
İstanbulspor or Fatih Karagümrük✗ Miss
74.2%
Avg Implied 72.4% · @ 1.27
Edge
+1.8%
54%
26%
20%
covers İstanbulspor + Fatih Karagümrük
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Draw or Fatih Karagümrük✓ Hit
45.6%
Avg Implied 68.5% · @ 1.34
Edge
-22.9%
54%
26%
20%
covers Draw + Fatih Karagümrük
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.38
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.33
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
İstanbulspor over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.6%
@ 1.32+12.5%
Under
17.4%
@ 3.10-12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Under
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.13
Betano
3.05
Marathonbet
3.04
İstanbulspor over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
52.1%
@ 2.58+16.3%
Under
47.9%
@ 1.44-16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.76
BetVictor
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.61
1xBet
2.58
Under
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
Bet365
1.44
İstanbulspor over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
25.5%
@ 6.16+10.5%
Under
74.5%
@ 1.09-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.30
1xBet
6.25
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
İstanbulspor over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.0%
@ 14.75+3.5%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.02-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Fatih Karagümrük over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.2%
@ 1.23-13.3%
Under
37.8%
@ 3.78+13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
3.97
Marathonbet
3.84
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.74
Fatih Karagümrük over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
25.4%
@ 2.14-17.9%
Under
74.6%
@ 1.64+17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.20
BetVictor
2.15
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.15
Unibet
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.67
BetVictor
1.65
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Fatih Karagümrük over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 4.58-12.6%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.16+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.75
Marathonbet
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Superbet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Under
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.16
BetVictor
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Fatih Karagümrük over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 10.75-7.0%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.03+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
10.50
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to İstanbulspor, so a minus line means İstanbulspor give that many goals of a start and Fatih Karagümrük receive them. At -1, İstanbulspor must win by two or more to land; a one-goal İstanbulspor win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (İstanbulspor)Actual: Fatih Karagümrük
İstanbulspor -2
14.0%
@ 10.93+6.0%
Draw -2
17.1%
@ 6.88+4.5%
Fatih Karagümrük +2
68.9%
@ 1.09-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Marathonbet
6.85
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
4.75
Away
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.09
Handicap -1 (İstanbulspor)Actual: Fatih Karagümrük
İstanbulspor -1
31.1%
@ 5.83+16.3%
Draw -1
23.4%
@ 4.30+3.3%
Fatih Karagümrük +1
45.6%
@ 1.32-19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.20
Unibet
4.80
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.55
Unibet
3.60
Away
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Handicap +1 (İstanbulspor)Actual: İstanbulspor
İstanbulspor +1
80.2%
@ 1.56+24.6%
Draw +1
12.5%
@ 3.70-10.9%
Fatih Karagümrük -1
7.2%
@ 4.14-13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Unibet
1.47
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Unibet
3.30
Away
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Unibet
3.75
Handicap +2 (İstanbulspor)Actual: İstanbulspor
İstanbulspor +2
92.8%
@ 1.18+16.5%
Draw +2
5.3%
@ 6.42-8.7%
Fatih Karagümrük -2
1.9%
@ 9.25-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.16
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.35
Away
Bet365
9.50
Marathonbet
9.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
İstanbulspor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.90
0.71
0.93
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.50
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.81
0.75
0.83
0.71
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Fatih Karagümrük) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fatih Karagümrük
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.64
0.50
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.75
0.60
0.80
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.59
0.67
0.33
0.54
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (İstanbulspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.2%
@ 1.36+3.8%
Under 0.5
27.8%
@ 2.94-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.10
William Hil
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
2.92
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
36.3%
@ 2.67+1.7%
Under 1.5
63.7%
@ 1.41-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.82
Betfair
2.75
Betano
2.75
Superbet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.66
Under
Bet365
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
BetVictor
1.43
Betano
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.0%
@ 6.55-1.1%
Under 2.5
87.0%
@ 1.08+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.55
1xBet
6.55
Betfair
6.50
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Superbet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
İstanbulspor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
53.1%
@ 2.18+10.6%
Under
46.9%
@ 1.61-10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.27
Betano
2.20
Marathonbet
2.15
1xBet
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Under
Superbet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.59
İstanbulspor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 7.17+1.6%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.05-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.60
Marathonbet
7.60
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
İstanbulspor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 11.00-4.1%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.01+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Fatih Karagümrük over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.8%
@ 1.93-6.0%
Under
58.2%
@ 1.78+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.96
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Fatih Karagümrük over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.9%
@ 5.77-6.0%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.09+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.95
1xBet
5.95
Betano
5.40
Under
Betano
1.12
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Fatih Karagümrük over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 10.50-7.3%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.02+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
İstanbulspor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.70
0.86
1.07
0.88
0.38
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.25
0.00
3.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.46
1.00
0.67
0.86
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Fatih Karagümrük) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fatih Karagümrük
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.50
0.64
0.56
0.94
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.73
0.67
0.44
0.62
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (İstanbulspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
80.0%
@ 1.21+3.9%
Under 0.5
20.0%
@ 3.86-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.82
1xBet
3.82
Betano
3.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
51.6%
@ 2.03+6.0%
Under 1.5
48.4%
@ 1.70-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Betano
2.00
Under
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.70
William Hil
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.8%
@ 4.26-1.8%
Under 2.5
80.2%
@ 1.18+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Superbet
4.25
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
İstanbulspor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
58.4%
@ 1.82+7.7%
Under
41.6%
@ 1.87-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Under
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.83
İstanbulspor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.1%
@ 5.13+3.2%
Under
78.9%
@ 1.12-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.45
1xBet
5.30
Betano
4.65
Under
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
İstanbulspor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 9.75-4.2%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.03+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Fatih Karagümrük over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
49.5%
@ 1.65-6.3%
Under
50.5%
@ 2.09+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.68
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Under
1xBet
2.12
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.07
Superbet
2.05
Fatih Karagümrük over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.8%
@ 4.10-7.6%
Under
85.2%
@ 1.19+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.10
Betano
3.90
Under
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Fatih Karagümrük over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 8.50-8.2%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.04+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.04
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.6%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.2%
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.8%
1.18
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.16
-
-
-
+16.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.5%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.16
BetVictor
1.15
1xBet
1.13
+12.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.1%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
90.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Superbet
1.08
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
86.9%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
86.0%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.5%
1.05
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
-
-
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.2%
1.19
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
-
-
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
82.6%
1.32
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.31
+12.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.2%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.14
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.0%
1.21
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
79.0%
1.31
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.29
-
-
+9.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.9%
1.12
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.6%
1.26
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Unibet
1.26
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
74.6%
1.64
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.67
BetVictor
1.65
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
+17.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
74.5%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
-10.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.2%
1.27
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.27
+1.8%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.2%
1.36
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.0%
1.32
Betfair
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
+0.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
İstanbulspor
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mustafa Sol0%
A. Tutar0%
Ilian Iliev0%
Dijlan Aydin0%
B. Nızam0%
V. Temel0%
Phellipe Cardoso Araujo0%
Duran Sahin0%
Turan Tuncer0%
E. Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
A. Tutar33%
Dijlan Aydin33%
B. Nızam33%
Phellipe Cardoso Araujo33%
Duran Sahin33%
Mustafa Sol0%
Ilian Iliev0%
V. Temel0%
Turan Tuncer0%
E. Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
B. Nızam33%
Mustafa Sol0%
A. Tutar0%
Ilian Iliev0%
Dijlan Aydin0%
V. Temel0%
Phellipe Cardoso Araujo0%
Duran Sahin0%
Turan Tuncer0%
E. Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mustafa Sol33%
A. Tutar0%
Ilian Iliev0%
Dijlan Aydin0%
B. Nızam0%
V. Temel0%
Phellipe Cardoso Araujo0%
Duran Sahin0%
Turan Tuncer0%
E. Mendy0%
Fatih Karagümrük
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emre Akbaba25%
D. Biraschi25%
A. Pešić25%
D. Verde25%
Dorukhan Toköz0%
C. Tosun0%
M. Silvestri0%
R. Yalçın0%
Ç. Kurukalıp0%
Muhammed Emin Sarikaya0%
M. Siopis0%
R. Civelek0%
Tiago Cukur0%
Baris Kalayci0%
Traore Ahmed0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dorukhan Toköz33%
D. Biraschi25%
Ç. Kurukalıp25%
M. Siopis25%
Traore Ahmed25%
Emre Akbaba0%
C. Tosun0%
M. Silvestri0%
A. Pešić0%
D. Verde0%
R. Yalçın0%
Muhammed Emin Sarikaya0%
R. Civelek0%
Tiago Cukur0%
Baris Kalayci0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
A. Pešić50%
Tiago Cukur25%
Emre Akbaba0%
Dorukhan Toköz0%
C. Tosun0%
D. Biraschi0%
M. Silvestri0%
D. Verde0%
R. Yalçın0%
Ç. Kurukalıp0%
Muhammed Emin Sarikaya0%
M. Siopis0%
R. Civelek0%
Baris Kalayci0%
Traore Ahmed0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Pešić50%
Emre Akbaba0%
Dorukhan Toköz0%
C. Tosun0%
D. Biraschi0%
M. Silvestri0%
D. Verde0%
R. Yalçın0%
Ç. Kurukalıp0%
Muhammed Emin Sarikaya0%
M. Siopis0%
R. Civelek0%
Tiago Cukur0%
Baris Kalayci0%
Traore Ahmed0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (27)
€19m
ANT (25)
€16m
BF (31)
€13m
FK (23)
€12m
KAY (23)
€12m
EE (23)
€11m
SIV (26)
€10m
IF (26)
€9m
MF (24)
€9m
BP (25)
€9m
İST (28)
€8m
BAN (29)
€7m
ÜMR (25)
€7m
PEN (26)
€6m
M1 (25)
€6m
VF (21)
€6m
KEÇ (25)
€6m
MUĞ (19)
€6m
SAR (20)
€5m
BOL (18)
€3m
İstanbulspor's squad is €4m less valuable than Fatih Karagümrük's (€8m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (10)
€10m
BF (10)
€6m
FK (9)
€5m
KAY (9)
€5m
ANT (8)
€5m
EE (8)
€4m
SIV (10)
€4m
BP (10)
€4m
IF (7)
€4m
VF (10)
€3m
İST (10)
€3m
ÜMR (8)
€3m
MUĞ (8)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
SAR (7)
€2m
MF (7)
€2m
BAN (8)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
PEN (10)
€2m
BOL (5)
€1m
İstanbulspor's attack is €2m less valuable than Fatih Karagümrük's (€3m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (5)
€4m
ANT (6)
€4m
EE (6)
€3m
FK (3)
€3m
BF (10)
€3m
MF (7)
€3m
SIV (5)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
BP (5)
€2m
ÜMR (7)
€2m
IF (7)
€2m
BAN (6)
€2m
KAY (4)
€2m
PEN (5)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
MUĞ (7)
€2m
SAR (4)
€1m
VF (2)
€1m
İST (5)
€1m
BOL (5)
€1m
İstanbulspor's midfield is €2m less valuable than Fatih Karagümrük's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ANT (11)
€7m
KAY (10)
€5m
BUR (12)
€4m
BF (11)
€4m
FK (11)
€4m
MF (10)
€4m
İST (13)
€4m
IF (12)
€3m
BAN (15)
€3m
PEN (11)
€3m
EE (9)
€3m
BP (10)
€3m
KEÇ (11)
€3m
SIV (11)
€3m
VF (9)
€2m
M1 (9)
€2m
SAR (9)
€2m
ÜMR (10)
€2m
MUĞ (4)
€2m
BOL (8)
€1m
İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Turkey: 1. Lig 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: 1. Lig stats & trends →
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Batman Petrolspor
Bursaspor
Sarıyer
Kayserispor
Mardin 1969
Iğdır FK
Keçiörengücü
Manisa F.K.
Muğlaspor
Bandırmaspor
Antalyaspor
Pendikspor
Esenler Erokspor
Bodrum FK
Vanspor FK
Ümraniyespor
Sivasspor
Boluspor