Istogu hosts FC Besa Peja in the Kosovo: Liga E Pare, with the home side favored to win. Istogu has been coming off a draw, but FC Besa Peja is on a 2-game winning run. The recent form of both teams suggests a high-scoring match, with Istogu averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.89 conceded at home, while FC Besa Peja averages 0.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded away from home.
The model predicts a 45% chance of Istogu winning, 25% chance of a draw, and 30% chance of FC Besa Peja winning. The expected total goals is 3.3, with the most likely total goals being 3. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 11%. The model also suggests 'Over 1.5' as its selection, with an 84.7% probability.
Istogu has a 45% chance of winning, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 30% chance of losing. FC Besa Peja has a 30% chance of winning, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 45% chance of losing. The model's other selections include 'Home win' with 45% probability, 'Draw' with 25% probability, and 'Away win' with 30% probability.
Results analysis
Istogu’s recent win over FC Besa Peja has extended their winning run, and the Pythia model’s prediction of a home win proved correct as the final score was 2-1 in Istogu’s favour. The model had given the home side a 45 % chance of victory, and the outcome matched that forecast. Every suggested selection also hit: Under 7.5 goals at 98.1 %, Under 6.5 at 95.1 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 94.1 %, and Home under 3.5 goals at 88.8 %. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 (11 %) was not achieved, but the overall performance of the model’s picks was solid.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Istogu win✓ Hit
45.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja win✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Istogu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.90
1.73
1.60
1.00
2.20
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
2.20
1.33
2.33
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.61
1.91
2.00
1.45
1.25
2.33
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Besa Peja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Besa Peja
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.50
1.27
1.00
0.93
2.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.17
1.00
1.67
0.67
2.67
vs Similar (23)
1.17
1.30
1.33
0.83
1.00
1.82
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Istogu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.7%
Under 1.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.4%
Under 2.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.3%
Under 3.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.1%
No
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1 ✓
9.1%
1-2
7.3%
2-2
6.6%
2-0
6.3%
1-0
5.9%
3-1
5.5%
0-0
4.8%
Istogu goals ↓
FC Besa Peja goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
4.5%
4.0%
1.9%
0.7%
1
5.9%
11%
7.3%
3.5%
1.3%
2
6.3%
9.1%
6.6%
3.2%
1.2%
3
3.8%
5.5%
4.0%
1.9%
0.7%
4
1.7%
2.5%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Istogu goals (down), columns = FC Besa Peja goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Mitrovica
1.39
Prishtina e Re
1.39
Ferizaj
1.39
KF Lepenci
1.39
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Istogu
0.94
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Istogu is 0.12 points worse than FC Besa Peja in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Mitrovica
1.40
Prishtina e Re
1.40
Ferizaj
1.40
KF Lepenci
1.40
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Kika
0.74
Istogu is 0.20 goals better than FC Besa Peja in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
Mitrovica
1.41
Prishtina e Re
1.41
Ferizaj
1.41
KF Lepenci
1.41
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
Istogu is 0.19 goals worse than FC Besa Peja in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 1.58).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Istogu or Draw✓ Hit
70.2%
Avg Implied -
45%
25%
30%
covers Istogu + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Istogu or FC Besa Peja✓ Hit
75.2%
Avg Implied -
45%
25%
30%
covers Istogu + FC Besa Peja
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Besa Peja✗ Miss
54.6%
Avg Implied -
45%
25%
30%
covers Draw + FC Besa Peja
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Istogu over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.8%
Under
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
54.3%
Under
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
27.4%
Under
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.5%
Under
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
42.5%
Under
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Istogu, so a minus line means Istogu give that many goals of a start and FC Besa Peja receive them. At -1, Istogu must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Istogu win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Istogu)Actual: FC Besa Peja
Istogu -2
11.3%
Draw -2
14.0%
FC Besa Peja +2
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Istogu)Actual: Draw
Istogu -1
25.3%
Draw -1
20.1%
FC Besa Peja +1
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Istogu)Actual: Istogu
Istogu +1
70.2%
Draw +1
15.8%
FC Besa Peja -1
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Istogu)Actual: Istogu
Istogu +2
85.9%
Draw +2
8.9%
FC Besa Peja -2
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Istogu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.87
0.53
0.73
0.13
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
0.67
1.33
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.35
0.78
0.55
0.55
0.17
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Besa Peja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Besa Peja
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.67
0.33
0.20
0.87
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.50
0.73
0.27
0.27
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Istogu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.2%
Under 0.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.4%
Under 1.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.2%
Under 2.5
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Istogu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.8%
Under
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
48.1%
Under
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Istogu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.00
1.13
0.73
0.53
1.27
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
1.00
1.09
1.36
0.73
0.67
1.42
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Besa Peja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Besa Peja
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
0.73
0.67
0.67
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.77
0.82
0.55
0.64
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Istogu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.1%
Under 0.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.1%
Under 1.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.7%
Under 2.5
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Istogu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
50.5%
Under
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
56.8%
Under
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.3%
Under
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Besa Peja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →
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Vëllaznimi
Dinamo Ferizaj
Trepça'89
Liria Prizren
Suhareka
2 Korriku
Rilindja 1974
Vjosa
Ramiz Sadiku
Kika
Trepça Mitrovicë
Prishtina e Re
KF Lepenci
Mitrovica
Ferizaj
Tefik Canga