Istogu face Liria Prizren in a match the model favours a Liria win. The overall shape is a high-scoring affair, with an expected total of 3.0 goals and a 23 % chance of exactly two goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.8 % probability. Istogu, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 2.09 goals scored and 1.55 conceded, while Liria, on the road, averages 1.5 goals scored and only 0.9 conceded. The home win probability is 25 %, the draw 25 %, and the away win 50 %. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.8 %), Under 6.5 (96.6 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.4 %), Under 5.5 (91.4 %), Away +2 handicap (89.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (89.3 %), Home under 2.5 goals (87.4 %) and Away over 0.5 goals (83.3 %). The home side is coming off a win, while Liria returns from a draw.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Istogu win
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Liria Prizren win
49.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Istogu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.90
1.80
1.67
1.00
2.13
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
2.25
1.33
2.33
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.58
1.92
2.09
1.55
1.15
2.23
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Liria Prizren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liria Prizren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
0.83
1.94
1.00
1.62
0.62
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.80
0.33
0.67
2.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
2.05
0.90
2.33
1.08
1.67
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Istogu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.5%
Under 1.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.1%
Under 2.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.7%
Under 3.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.0%
No
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
7.9%
0-1
7.7%
2-1
6.6%
0-0
6.0%
2-2
5.9%
1-3
5.8%
Istogu goals ↓
Liria Prizren goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
7.7%
7.9%
4.7%
2.1%
1
4.9%
12%
9.6%
5.8%
2.6%
2
3.7%
6.6%
5.9%
3.5%
1.6%
3
1.5%
2.7%
2.4%
1.4%
0.6%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Istogu goals (down), columns = Liria Prizren goals (across).
Advertisement
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
VĂ«llaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Mitrovica
1.39
Prishtina e Re
1.39
Ferizaj
1.39
KF Lepenci
1.39
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Istogu
0.94
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Istogu is 1.15 points worse than Liria Prizren in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 2.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
VĂ«llaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Mitrovica
1.40
Prishtina e Re
1.40
Ferizaj
1.40
KF Lepenci
1.40
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Kika
0.74
Istogu is 0.38 goals worse than Liria Prizren in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
VĂ«llaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
Mitrovica
1.41
Prishtina e Re
1.41
Ferizaj
1.41
KF Lepenci
1.41
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
Istogu is 0.91 goals worse than Liria Prizren in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 0.85).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Istogu or Draw
50.3%
Avg Implied -
25%
25%
50%
covers Istogu + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Istogu or Liria Prizren
74.7%
Avg Implied -
25%
25%
50%
covers Istogu + Liria Prizren
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Liria Prizren
75.0%
Avg Implied -
25%
25%
50%
covers Draw + Liria Prizren
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Istogu over/under 0.5
Over
70.6%
Under
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 1.5
Over
34.7%
Under
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 2.5
Over
12.6%
Under
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 3.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liria Prizren over/under 0.5
Over
83.4%
Under
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liria Prizren over/under 1.5
Over
53.5%
Under
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liria Prizren over/under 2.5
Over
26.8%
Under
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liria Prizren over/under 3.5
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Istogu, so a minus line means Istogu give that many goals of a start and Liria Prizren receive them. At -1, Istogu must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Istogu win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Istogu)
Istogu -2
3.4%
Draw -2
7.2%
Liria Prizren +2
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Istogu)
Istogu -1
10.6%
Draw -1
14.4%
Liria Prizren +1
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Istogu)
Istogu +1
50.3%
Draw +1
21.6%
Liria Prizren -1
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Istogu)
Istogu +2
71.9%
Draw +2
15.5%
Liria Prizren -2
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Istogu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.77
0.53
0.73
0.13
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
0.67
1.33
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.35
0.65
0.55
0.55
0.17
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Liria Prizren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liria Prizren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.30
0.53
0.35
0.92
0.23
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.50
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.43
0.75
0.50
0.78
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Istogu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.5%
Under 0.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.4%
Under 1.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.8%
Under 2.5
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Istogu over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liria Prizren over/under 0.5 HT
Over
64.9%
Under
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liria Prizren over/under 1.5 HT
Over
24.4%
Under
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liria Prizren over/under 2.5 HT
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Istogu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.03
1.20
0.80
0.47
1.27
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
1.00
1.13
1.45
0.82
0.58
1.42
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Liria Prizren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liria Prizren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.57
1.41
0.65
0.54
0.46
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.19
0.52
1.58
0.58
0.67
0.44
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Istogu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.4%
Under 0.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.5%
Under 1.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.0%
Under 2.5
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Istogu over/under 0.5 2H
Over
38.7%
Under
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liria Prizren over/under 0.5 2H
Over
69.6%
Under
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liria Prizren over/under 1.5 2H
Over
34.5%
Under
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liria Prizren over/under 2.5 2H
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
VĂ«llaznimi
Dinamo Ferizaj
Trepça'89
Suhareka
2 Korriku
Rilindja 1974
Vjosa
Ramiz Sadiku
Kika
FC Besa Peja
Trepça Mitrovicë
Prishtina e Re
KF Lepenci
Mitrovica
Ferizaj
Tefik Canga